April 29, 2013
I'm good with the pre-flop call, as his UTG raise is probably strength and your hand isn't good enough for a reraise. He's got pretty LAGgy stats up to this point, but it's only 13 hands so you can't count on him having worse than you here.
I like your IP donk lead after his flop check. What's he c/calling with here? Maybe AKo or KQo with the K of hearts. He may also be so loose as to call you with a straight draw (QJ) on the 3-flush board (or one of them could be a heart). Could be TP as well (AT).
You follow through with the turn cbet, which should net you the pot there. But his call makes him either tenacious and won't give up his draw, or he's slowplaying a flopped monster.
Your bet sizing on both the flop and turn look like you're going for value here, like you want him to call or shove. Maybe he has a set of 6's or 9's and is playing cautiously? He may be planning on c/calling to the river unless he hits a fh.
I'm good with your check behind on the river. At this point, the pot is 23,30 and he's got 27,119 behind, a perfect check/shove stack. You beat many of his possible draws (single heart or straight draws), and his willingness to call up to this point OOP makes it seem likely he'll call any bet you make here on this inconsequential river 4. What better hands than yours would fold to a river bet? Just AK and AQ with the K and Q of hearts. Maybe a weak TP with a heart (QT, KT). So far you've been betting <1/2 pot, so to make a river bet more convincing you would've had to bet much bigger I think, maybe 2/3 to 3/4 pot. I don't know if I would've been capable of a 3-barrel bluff of this size on the river.
One thing you could've done is show more strength pre by 3betting, then your flop and turn cbets would've been bigger and forced him to more difficult decisions on both of these streets.
March 8, 2013
I would like to take issue with something OP said: do you really think AJo is ever a fold on the button to a minraise? You are getting better than 2 to 1 preflop and you're guaranteed position postflop. I mean, maybe if you know villain's range is JJ+,AQ+ and you are always dominated, but even a tight player is probably opening 88+,AQ+. You are 31% against this range which is exactly the pot odds you are getting, so unless you think this guy is going to outplay you out of position, I really don't like folding to anyone but the nittiest of nits.
Regardless of his preflop range, after the flop I remove sets, underpairs, flushes, and overcards without a heart from his range, putting him on overpairs, flush draws, and maybe some top pair. You're about 25% against this range, and I don't think he's folding anything but the weaker draws, so yes, I do like checking back here. Just take the free card, your heart outs can make you a lot of money, and your pair outs aren't worthless.
I would plan to call a reasonable bet or check behind if you hit a pair, bet big if you hit the flush to extract maximum value from weaker flushes. I don't think you would have a profitable bluff on any river card because the only better hands you could make fold are AxQh and AxKh, which is just not a big enough portion of his range.
As played, checking the river is definitely correct.
July 3, 2010
Call pre seems fine vs. someone running 38/31 but you need to get in the habit of checking/listing stats by seat because even some people with these stats play nitty UTG but open every HJ, CO, and Button.
Bet flop seems fine. I'd check turn and would give serious consideration to check/jamming river on him with our heart blocker.
If he does something stupid like bet 77 for thin value he'll now have to fold it.
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