WRT above post, I don’t think floating this raise is a good idea. There are minimum 17 cards on the turn that render us unable to continue versus a bet of what would probably be at least 3k (eight non-Ace hearts, three offsuit nines, three offsuit sixes and three offsuit fours) so that’s roughly 35% of the time we’re very uncomfortable on the turn, and there’s still one villain left to act.

We definitely can’t continue in the (admittedly unlikely) event that V1 decides to repop it to 6k or something, so we probably only get to see another card something like 95% of the time rather than 100%. We have to play all future streets out of position, which means that even if V2 does have some kind of a draw or a hand we’re ahead of, they get to realise all of their equity for free at any time they choose – another thing we don’t like.

So let’s say we get to see a turn card 95% of the time, it’s only heads-up about maybe 75% of the time, and roughly 65% of that is a turn card we actually like, we’re looking at only ~50% of the time we get to see a turn card where we can even consider continuing versus another bet.

When you consider that some % of the time we’re going to see a good turn card but then have it checked through and see a bad river card, plus 35% of the time that we do manage to check-call the turn we’re going to see a bad river card, there are a lot of bad scenarios unfolding here. I think bet-folding is the right play on the flop.

WRT preflop sizing, I don’t like the idea of going 500 or 700. Admittedly we don’t know what the tourney is or whether we can expect there to be good players at the table, but going so big with our raises makes it completely correct for other players to make big folds against us. It’s not like players are going to be saying to themselves, “well, this raise is massive and his range is likely to be super strong here, but I guess he’s decided for us that 500 is going to be the standard raise sizing at this table”. It’s just not possible to get away with raises that big unless you’re confident the table is full of bad players.

If I sit down at a tournament table and someone opens to 700 UTG first hand, I am going to be making a note of their next raise sizing – as soon as they open to a different sizing, they’re giving away information about their ranges in both spots. You don’t want to open to a massive sizing with the first hand because it’s going to affect the way people perceive your ranges later, and it’s going to cost you money right there and then by making it correct for people to fold more.