September 14, 2014
#Game No : 689427664 ***** 888poker Hand History for Game 689427664 ***** $15/$30 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** Tournament #63134025 $3.60 + $0.40 - Table #3 9 Max (Real Money) Seat 5 is the button Total number of players : 9 Seat 1: Cromatics ( $5,717 ) Seat 2: ChacalMaster ( $2,955 ) Seat 3: TheNerok ( $2,307 ) Seat 4: dollybear14 ( $6,789 ) Seat 5: bavaria14 ( $2,014 ) Seat 6: london_ace ( $4,292 ) Seat 7: sjajm ( $1,234 ) Seat 9: wih102 ( $3,000 ) Seat 10: totalvoll ( $3,045 ) london_ace posts small blind [$15] sjajm posts big blind [$30] ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to london_ace [ 8, A ] wih102 folds totalvoll folds Cromatics raises [$78] ChacalMaster folds TheNerok folds dollybear14 folds bavaria14 calls [$78] london_ace calls [$63] sjajm folds ** Dealing flop ** [ 8, Q, 3 ] london_ace checks Cromatics checks bavaria14 checks ** Dealing turn ** [ 6 ] london_ace bets [$132] Cromatics folds bavaria14 calls [$132] ** Dealing river ** [ K ] london_ace checks bavaria14 bets [$1,804] london_ace ??
August 16, 2013
Hi. I see this is a tough spot. The fact that he might really be tilted makes it like this. But he can have hands with a King a lot (because he is calling a turn bet with KT), mabye K3, K6. but he can sometimes even have a set. In the mood that he was, he would have been very tempted to shove those hands too, but mabye with his bluffs he would started them earlyer than the river.
I would fold in your position, and waited for a way better spot in such and easy tournament full of fish.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
folding_aces_pre_yo said:
I obv discount strogn hands in their range , they've got either air or a marginal hand which they've now turned into a bluff.
I don't see why this is “obv”. Villain put quite a lot of chips into the pot, so he certainly SHOULD have a good hand a fair bit of the time. That doesn't mean you have to fold, but it certainly doesn't make it a snap call. No bet size HAS to be a bluff or HAS to be value. A large bet size should be a bluff more often than a small one, but you also should fold your bluff-catchers more often to it. That's the magic of pot odds.
If you really are confident saying that V will be bluff-heavy in this spot, then of course you should call. But I don't think your evidence for that is really that strong.
The way to approach this, then, is to think about your own range for checking. V is risking 1800 to win 500, so to make him indifferent to bluffing, you should call 22% of the time. But really, it costs him a bit more than 1800 to run this bluff, because he also had to call the turn bet, so you don't even have to call that often. Is this hand in the top 20% of your range for bluff-catching? Does it block any hands in Villain's value or bluff-catching ranges?
September 14, 2014
Andrew, I've still not watched your bluffing series so i'll be honest , the question's that you've asked above i'm going to struggle to answer.
Does your bluffing series cover area's such as my range for bluff catching in certain spots and knowing how often we need to call when we believe our opponent is bluffing?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
folding_aces_pre_yo said:
Andrew, I've still not watched your bluffing series so i'll be honest , the question's that you've asked above i'm going to struggle to answer.
Does your bluffing series cover area's such as my range for bluff catching in certain spots and knowing how often we need to call when we believe our opponent is bluffing?
Perhaps a bit. Mathematics of Poker is the ideal source for this, though it's a dense read. Ed Miller's Poker's 1% is a little like MoP Lite. One important point is that it's not about how often to call when you believe opponent is bluffing, it's how often to call when you don't know/arent' confident guessing how often he'll be bluffing.
September 14, 2014
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
folding_aces_pre_yo said:
ty andrew.
so , if you're not sure how often your opponent is bluffing ..like in this example i've got no idea how often he's bluffing in this spot. You said that that i should be calling around 22% of the time , maybe even less.
how do we get that figure 22%?
When he has the nuts, it's always correct for him to shove, there's nothing you can do to make that unprofitable for him. What you can do is make bluffing unprofitable. If you always fold, then bluffing is clearly correct for him. If you never fold, then bluffing is clearly incorrect. Your goal is to make him indifferent between bluffing or not bluffing, to call just often enough that he won't show a profit by bluffing but not so often that he can exploit you by only shoving strong hands and never bluffing.
When Villain bluffs, he is risking 1800 to win 500. When you call, he loses 1800, and when you fold, he wins 500. So you don't have to call terribly often to make this an unattractive proposition. He needs you to fold 1800/(1800+500) ~ 78% of the time to break even on his bluff. So you want to call 22%. If you call more than that, you lose too much to his value hands. If you fold more than that, you lose too much to his bluffs.
Again, Math of Poker is a really good resource for understanding this in greater depth.
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