October 22, 2013
Poker Stars €5.40+€0.60 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t30000/t60000 Blinds + t6000 – 5 players –
Hero (SB): t1538451 M = 12.82
BB: t2801399 M = 23.34
UTG: t863218 M = 7.19
CO: t2230987 M = 18.59
BTN: t2708957 M = 22.57
Pre Flop: (t120000) Hero is SB with A 6
3 folds, Hero raises to t120000, BB calls t60000
Flop: (t270000) 2 3 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t120000, BB raises to t240000, Hero calls t120000
Turn: (t750000) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks
River: (t750000) T (2 players)
Hero b/f ,c/c,c/f ?
FT bubble,opponent was very aggressive vs me
stats 30/24,vs steel BB
71% fold,14% call,14% 3bet
fold to cbet 0%(3)
raise cbet 67% (3)
Aggr Freq 35% ,flop 39%,turn 38%,river 23%
March 26, 2013
Looks to me like he called preflop with a speculative type hand in position such as T9ss or something and took a stab at the pot with a flush draw or he could have a hand like 44 or 77 that he could play this way.
Personally, I think if you check and he bets small you can call as he is aggressive and likely would have 3bet preflop with an A or alternatively just lead the river as he folds busted draws and possibly may fold 44 / 77 etc given 2 overs but no guarantee of it.
If you lead then the sizing probably does not need to be too big to be successful against hands he whiffed with so I think I probably would bet up to half pot which only has to work > 33% to turn a profit.
March 8, 2013
Do you have stats about his BB fold to SB steal? Or any memory? In my experience, most players will rarely fold to a min raise from the SB in the BB, since they have position, so stats for folding to button and cutoff steals and rarely accurate for a SB steal. I would definitely make it at least 2.5-3x as a matter of principle.
I think you should 3bet shove the flop. While you are ahead of a lot of hands, you don't know which cards might hit his pairs, he might have a flush draw or a straight draw and there are literally 0 safe cards (as your pairs make a straight). You will probably get called by a lot of hands you are ahead of, like flush draws and straight draws, while maybe folding out hands like A2, A3. When you are behind, you may have as much as 10 outs.
As played, I would make a small, defensive bet/fold on the river. I definitely don't like Poking Fun's plan to lead half pot as a bluff, I'm sure he's folding over 33% of the time overall, but not 33% of the time that you are beat. I would just bet 12000 again and fold to any raise
March 26, 2013
I wasn't saying specifically 50%, I was saying up to 50% and the amount depends on what you think might get him to fold a better hand than heros. In hindsight though Mark, I quite like the idea of a slightly smaller bet but not as small as 120k as I doubt that sizing ever gets called by worse and isn't big enough to fold better out either imo as there is a reasonable chance villain might bluff raise the river if he sees a small bet as weak missed draws. The plus side though is it doesn't have to work too often to be profitable so I can see your point of view.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
Preflop sizing is 100% dependent on your standard raise here.
The river is too late here imho to get him off a hand that beats us. Maybe if he has like K2 or something completely random, but other than that he is folding everything we beat and calling everything that beats us. The decision between c/c and c/f is interesting, but Ill wait until you finish the question regarding your decision(which imo is a pretty easy check). I guess in some crazy worlds c/shoving seems fun, but meh.
The flop however is interesting. I think we should be folding or shoving(I wavered between just 3 betting or shoving, but I think shoving is better). But betting isnt a standard for me at all here. Checking does have its merits here, especially against people who are aggro, as a c/r prices them out better than a b/r(when we get raised), allowing us to get slightly better FE(assuming his bluffing tendencies are the same).
The main reason I think shoving is acceptable here is because I dont expect him to have nuts(aka any straight) or 54 enough here to scare us. I dont expect 2pr-sets here often with the mni raise, and 2's, 3's are not a huge concern. I guess %x is somethnig to worry about but we have decent outs against all but 56 and a5. Like one of the above posters said I agree that his range is weighted towards 4x and flush draws or air. So shoving seems fine.
In fact after typing all of that up, we can probably get away with a 550k re raise on flop. Not many hands I see changing their decision toa 3 bet as opposed to a shove, except maybe a 4x makes a bad call against us allowing us to make more. We are effectively priced(I think didnt do the exact math) in once we do this, so his 4 bet bluff range isnt a huge concern.
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