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A3s on button with little fold equity and 15 BB
TheClubber
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November 10, 2015 - 8:36 pm
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Live $200 buy in on Vegas strip. Blinds 400/800/75. Hero’s stack 12K Villain 40K.

Villain is a regular. He’s a retired guy, generally a big fish, playing too many hands. I’d estimate probably 40-60% of pots. His main weakness is inability to fold. He limps fairly often and raises a little less frequently. He rarely limp/folds and very unlikely to fold to a 3-bet after he opens. I would assume his raining range is generally stronger than his limping range, so maybe top 15% of hands. 

Pre-flop villain min-raised to 1600 MP1. Action folded to hero on the button with Adiamond3diamond

With 15 BB, against many villains this seems like a good spot for a 3-bet shove. I have the ace blocker flush and wheel backup so I’m not in terrible shape when called. However, I expect to have very little fold equity, so I could get calls from weak dominated aces and small pairs where I have 25-30% equity that other players might fold. 

Folding is defensible given that villain probably has a better than average hand (for him), my hand is good but not great and I don’t have much of a stack to leverage the position or skill advantage.

In general, I don’t like flatting any raise with only 15 BB but I have position, and will have slightly more fold equity after the flop and can give up if the board is very unfavorable. If I call and whiff the flop I still have 13 BB left, enough to make most opponents think twice before calling a shove.

How would you decide between shove, fold or call in this spot?  If it’s defensible to flat with A3s, what other hands would be in a calling range?

Foucault

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November 10, 2015 - 10:34 pm
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I’d rule out flatting. If you ignore the effect of others behind you waking up with hands (which isn’t actually negligible, but makes the math easier) you should be able to calculate the cEV of shoving. You just have to estimate Villain’s opening and calling ranges and calculate your equity vs his calling range.

Shemooves
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November 12, 2015 - 1:16 am
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It might be higher variance, but you said it yourself. 
Lets say this guy is comming in with 40%. Then you are about 50/50 vs hes range if you shove and he calls 100% of the time.

There is chips in the middle already, so this is already a +chipEV play.
Lets say he folds 50% of hes limping range here, and calling a 20% range. 

You still have 45% equity against him, but 50% of the times, you pick up chips. 

All this without taking sb and bb into consideration. 

florianm1
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November 12, 2015 - 4:57 am
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Foucault said
I’d rule out flatting. If you ignore the effect of others behind you waking up with hands (which isn’t actually negligible, but makes the math easier) you should be able to calculate the cEV of shoving. You just have to estimate Villain’s opening and calling ranges and calculate your equity vs his calling range.

you can even calcualte the ev of a shove with assuming the people behind wake up with a hand 😀

and if you dont want to calculate than put it into ICMizer or something like that

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