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This is a hand on the bubble of a Step 5 that I thought might create some interesting discussion about strategy and ICM in general which is why I posted it here in MTT. Also I couldn't really find an STT forum. Luckily some good timing with Cougars step videos just getting posted maybe he will be in the zone 
I didnt think much of the hand at first and I just thought about it today and looked into it deeper. It is very similar to a hand that Moshman describes in his SNG book. I also think I have found the answer but I want to see what you guys think first.
Poker Stars $670 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds – 3 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
BB: t2295 11.47 BBs
BTN: t1640 8.20 BBs
Hero (SB): t9565 47.83 BBs
Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is SB with Q
Q
BTN raises to t1640 all in
Edit: Sorry I forgot his stats. He is running a 20/16 over 59 hands and has stolen from the button 3/8 times.
I would take a bit call to try and enduce a call from bb. You have nothing to lose and everything gain by getting him in. With three of you in it really doesn't matter which of you win as long as they don't chop you. If bb doesn't call I like my chances hu with qq for the w (lol snap).
Waaaooooo…with the BB stack size and ur holding QQs i dont see why u should be worying about ICM in this spot, u have the 4rd best starting hand in holdem and the villains is shoving super wider from that spot..If he´s a 20/16 im guessing he´s like 30/20 from the BTN position…Calling and loosing doesnt change muchm u will be still chip leader, your tournament equity will be prettty much the same and u have everything to gain.
Krul Hul said:
I would take a bit call to try and enduce a call from bb. You have nothing to lose and everything gain by getting him in. With three of you in it really doesn't matter which of you win as long as they don't chop you. If bb doesn't call I like my chances hu with qq for the w (lol snap).
Been this a Step SNGs and its the same finishing 2nd than 1st i dont want to enduce anything from anybody, the more people in the pot reduces dramaticly my chances on winning the hand…I know perhaps both villains stack sizes are almost equals but i want to have a much showdown equity as i posibly can…Its not the same having QQs heads up when against a a top 15% of hands i have around 70% equity to win but against 2 villains with the same range QQs will be basically flipping against those 2 ranges…I just jam and go play the step 6
Am I missing something here? With that big a chip lead worse case scenario is getting it hu. If you lose there is then a villian who can do serious damage to you. Of course Im not worried with qq going into a hand hu. But to try and isolate imo is foolish. Like I said before with three in it doesn't matter who wins you effectively are gur to move on. Pro comment?
Unless I'm missing something here I'm shoving all day everyday. If you do happen to lose you are still have a pretty big chiplead. Maybe I'm missing something but it seems like a real easy reshove here. Just to make sure everyone knows 1st and 2nd pay the same here.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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yeah im not hesitating to get it in here.
Okay here is what I have,
Hero 9565.00 chips and $2036.61 of the max $2100 in Equity.
Villian 1 has 1640 chips and $1347.00 Equity
Villian 2 has 2295 in chips and $1516.29 Equity
I gain $63.39 in equity if I call and win. But Villain two gains an astronomical $583.71.
If I call and lose here I lose $78.36 in equity and I go from a 99.6 % fav to 90% fav to move on to step 6 and lose my dominating chip lead.
Yes It feels dumb folding QQ 3 handed to a ~8 bb shove but IMO it is correct. The only person that significantly gains from our gamble is Villian 2.
Nobody wants to gamble with us, they are basically playing against each other at this point and the only thing that changes that is if we gamble. Honestly, Villian 1 should fold and let me shove on Villian 2 but as played this should be a fold. Putting chips in with no fold equity regardless of the hand in this situation seems really bad.
Even if he told me for a fact that he is shoving 100% of hands I am only a 5 to 1 favorite. Why dodge outs if I don't have too? He is already put the pressure on the other short stack in this hand. Like I said if he folds we are shoving, we are not insta-mucking every hand.
Calling can cost you some money in the long run.
I did call somewhat quickly as I had a decent amount of mtts going but, I think I should have folded. I would like to say if I thought about it in game for a while I would have folded but that is optimistic. I think this is just an extension of folding aces when two people are already all-in for significant portions of their stack. Here is the full hand. It didnt suprise me what he showed up with and I ran good for the first time in a while.
Poker Stars $670 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds – 3 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
BB: t2295 11.47 BBs
BTN: t1640 8.20 BBs
Hero (SB): t9565 47.83 BBs
Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is SB with Q Q
BTN raises to t1640 all in, Hero calls t1540, 1 fold
Flop: (t3480) 5 K
3 (2 players – 1 is all in)
Turn: (t3480) Q
(2 players – 1 is all in)
River: (t3480) 2 (2 players – 1 is all in)
Final Pot: t3480
BTN shows K 5 (two pair, Kings and Fives)
Hero shows Q Q (three of a kind, Queens)
Hero wins t3480
yeah this has to be a super easy shove with stacks as they are.
it'd be much more interesting if you and the shover had similar stacks and there was one shorty.
also, i'm not sure this is close to the example of folding AA in a satty cause we never bust here. the only reason you fold AA in a satty is when there is too great a chance of busting and a decent enough chance that folding gets you a seat.
Step 5 qq and think of folding3 handed with monster chip lead? You must get better smoke than me. Help a brother out?
Fresh out or I would Krul prolly why I am on a downswing.
Maybe I am overthinking it. I am just in such a good position I don't want to jepordize it.
Does anybody know if I can play the WSOP Step 6 and keep the buyin since I am not 21?
arkstfan said:
Fresh out or I would Krul
Maybe I am overthinking it. I am just in such a good position I don't want to jepordize it.
Does anybody know if I can play the WSOP Step 6 and keep the buyin since I am not 21?
Check with cashmanbrian.com Just email him with tourney # for step 6 and see what his offer is. Not too sure if there transferable or not. Should say in the tournment lobby of step six in the upper right hand corner if not check with stars. Good luck!
I dont think he's asking about folding. W/ QQ and his lead, it's a snap call I think.
He's showing ICM effects and how the guy lost 800+ in equity on a marginal push.
I do think it's interesting. I'm not sure this is standard at step 5's? But lesson applies to all levels imo.
Here is what SNG wizard spit out, it agrees with the consenus that we should push, but only QQ+. Of course this tool is not always optimal as there are unknown variables like the actual push calling ranges of both players but I think this is not as easy a push as everyone is saying if JJ and AK should be folds.
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