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January 15, 2013
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From the final table of this evenings WSOP 10K. 6 players left $3,400 up top, $640 to 6th.
I have been generally having my way with the table, though I have not been crazy active, when this hand comes up. Given what I know about these two players, and their ranges (ignore what you would normally expect the flattter to have here — i have actually seen him do this with 4-4!) I could very well be crushing both. Thoughts, given what I know about their ranges but also factoring in my relative chip position/ICM as well?
#Game No : 455934564 ***** WSOP.com Hand History for Game 455934564 ***** $5,000/$10,000 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** Tournament #414050 $27.30 + $2.70 - Table #11 (Real Money) Seat 1 is the button Total number of players : 6 Seat 1: 10JQKA ( $514,533 ) Seat 4: cantbeatyou ( $631,730 ) Seat 5: Flawlessbink ( $547,744 ) Seat 6: nowitsover ( $120,793 ) Seat 7: raisydaisy ( $380,356 ) Seat 9: Peanutt32 ( $160,844 ) nowitsover posts ante [$1,000] Peanutt32 posts ante [$1,000] raisydaisy posts ante [$1,000] 10JQKA posts ante [$1,000] cantbeatyou posts ante [$1,000] Flawlessbink posts ante [$1,000] cantbeatyou posts small blind [$5,000] Flawlessbink posts big blind [$10,000] ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to cantbeatyou [ 9h, 9s ] nowitsover raises [$119,793] raisydaisy folds Peanutt32 raises [$159,844] 10JQKA folds cantbeatyou ???
April 8, 2013
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Seems like a pretty standard call. Shortest stack shoves 12bb and second shortest stack reshoves. Ranges should contain all pairs, Probably A10off+, A8ss+ and some broadway combos. Granted the 16bb shove should be stronger it will still contain and few hands you dominate and alot of hands you flip with. Given that this will only cost you ~25% of your stack it seems like a pretty clear call.
December 24, 2013
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I kind of guessed you'd have like 40% equity but that felt like a shot in the dark and I looked.
vs 22-aa, at-ak, A8s/A9s, kj, kq, qj, JTs
and a reshove from
55-aa, at-ak, A8s/A9s, KQs
winning about 35.1% of those showdowns and you have 35.5% equity for the main pot. It's kind of wonky since you have the side pot.
side pot is 8bbish and you win that 50.40% of the time and have 50.99% equity.
Seems like a call unless you can think of some other dynamic that would prevent this from being optimal (different stack distributions among the rest of the table and your own stack are factors that come to mind)
September 14, 2014
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getting this in 4 shurrr.
December 24, 2013
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can you elaborate why? it actually looks pretty close to me after running some numbers
September 14, 2014
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yeah it's close , I just think that given that it's 6 handed , we're likely going to get into close spots like this and for us to win this tourney we're gunna have to take a little “risk” which is fine , if we win we will have a even better chance of winning the tournement , may even increase out confidence and also it would send a message to the other players on the table , that we're not a person to be messed with , less likely to be 3-bet shoved on when we open , if we lose the hand we will still have 40ish bb to work with 🙂
April 8, 2013
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Im a little confused by the numbers you posted but overall it seems like your stats make this +cEV which has to make it a call given there are no negative ICM implications.
May 30, 2012
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Mike is being very nice describing some of the CLOWNS at this table, lol. Esp the main Villian. He's absolutely BAD. His cashing rate in over 770 tourneys on WSOP this year is 7.73% and he's like negative 5-7k on the site this year.
I played with him most of the night till I busted this same tourney in 12th.
He's a donkey is every way. He flats everything. Flatted k2s in a multiway pot. Called a big river bet on a T845Acccc w/ 22. He got lucky to be at this final table. I'm jealous, lol.
I was part of a discussion about this hand already. I think part of me is bias cause I know the clowns in the hands and I would CALL knowing the history of both and notes that I already have on Peanut (Nowitsover – is ok, not much bad to say about it)
I call…………. I'm putting Nowitover on (A4-AK, all pairs, KQ KJ) Peanut (44-AA, A6-AK, KQ-KT, QJ QT) He's so bad I could see him just calling the first all in of 119k and leaving the rest behind. Seriously…………. that's one of my notes on him.
I call w/ the poss of knocking 2 out and still having a nice stack.
December 24, 2013
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Okay yah, add in more hands that you're a 2:1 favorite over individually and this gets super cool.
January 15, 2013
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Thanks for all the input guys! I had not thought of the angle that callng provides an image that I am not to be messed with, which could be helpful. Would anythign change in oyur analysis if you knew that the person in 2nd chip position, who has direct position on me, is, by far the stongest player at the table?
December 24, 2013
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i dont think so, if you lose he doesnt really put you at a tough position overall relative to your stack now. him barely having you covered doesn't stand out to me as different
May 30, 2012
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Agree with Jacob.
Knowing the players like I do. You and Anthony (Flawless) are 1a/1b at this table by far. Personally, If I was still at this FT, I would take you for strength in this spot and would not call/jam/raise unless I was QQ-AA, AK (then figured it out). Flawless does some crazy things at times, but I think in this spot, he’s standard because he knows You and him are the class of the table and you’re not doing this lite. He knows you have a good to great hand.
Hope that helps from another NJ players point of view who’s played with everyone at this table a bunch.
Still annoyed that the clown won the hand and the other clown won the tourney. Esp after how I went out in 11th…… Can you tell how pissed I am STILL, lol. Ok, deep breath, I’m good.
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