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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy A-flushdraw vs OVERshow in million

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A-flushdraw vs OVERshow in million

mategott

Grinding Micros

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May 2, 2013 - 1:26 pm

Its in the middle of million. I dont use a hud.
Lets not talk about that and look at the hand instead.
I havent played any pots with villian until this hand.

This spot is kinda weird for me and i dont think i been in it before.
what do you think? What are we even up against? Is this a pair, flushdraw or set?

For me it feels like it can be a flushdraw pretty often. But maybe something like 9x aswell.

When i look at it right now i felt like i should have called it of. But when you are getting deeper in the million you wanna keep your stack because it often comes up alot of good spots.

Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t600/t1200 Blinds + t120 – 9 players – View hand 2198120
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

alexandrapau (MP1): BB = 27.4, t32866
kamila.rus7 (MP2): BB = 15.7, t18782
jackellwood (CO): BB = 9.1, t10900
guillermoart (BTN): BB = 45.9, t55051
Speedpokah (SB): BB = 17.0, t20415
xXAlex1337Xx (BB): BB = 25.8, t30913
BOKPOWER (UTG): BB = 14.6, t17518
Hero (UTG+1): BB = 34.3, t41164
ozenc (UTG+2): BB = 42.4, t50911

Pre Flop: (t2880) Hero is UTG+1 with 6 of spades A
1 fold, Hero raises to t2400, 4 folds, guillermoart calls t2400, 2 folds

Flop: (t7680) 4 of clubs 9 of spades 2 (2 players)
Hero bets t3155, guillermoart raises to t52531 all in

markconkle

High Stakes Shark

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May 2, 2013 - 8:21 pm

Without any reads I can't see calling here. He probably doesn't have a straight flush draw (too low), so he's either doing this with something like KQs or we're behind. Make a note on this guy and show up with AA next time.

Foucault

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May 3, 2013 - 9:10 am

I'd call. You really aren't that deep in the tournament such that there's much disparity between cEV and $EV. By my rough math you need 41% equity to break even on the call. Here's a range that gives Villain most plausible one-pair combos, all the way up to the biggest pairs that in reality he'd 3bet more often than not, plus a few combos of flush draw + overs:

{TT+,88-55,33,A9s,A4s,KsQs,KsJs,QsJs,QsTs,JsTs,J9s,T9s,98s,A9o,T9o,98o}

You have 46.7% equity against that range, and I think if anything it's excessively weighted towards pairs. I don't give him credit for anything bigger than a pair, but if you think he'd play sets this way, that would change things a bit.

mategott

Grinding Micros

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May 3, 2013 - 11:56 am

Thank you for your responses!

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