Home
(2 votes) 
June 2, 2013
Offline
I am new to the table, about 10 hands so far, have seeing this guy limp about 3 times, no showdown. Assume he is passive and donkey, I floped bottom two on a super conected board, not sure what to do, I don´t want to play for stack on this sort of flop, lots of scary cards, not sure if V is betting draws or a made hand. Thoughts?
Merge, $3.3 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: 11,775 (29.4 bb)
BB: 9,560 (23.9 bb)
UTG+2: 27,675 (69.2 bb)
Hero (MP1): 39,161 (97.9 bb)
MP2: 21,009 (52.5 bb)
MP3: 14,500 (36.3 bb)
CO: 3,445 (8.6 bb)
BTN: 11,458 (28.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T
9
UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to 800, MP2 calls 800, 4 folds, BB calls 400
Flop: (2,920) T
9 J (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 1,600, MP2 raises to 3,200, BB folds, Hero calls 1,600
Turn: (9,320) 4
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets 4,400, Hero folds
Results: 9,320 pot
Final Board: T 9 J 4
Hero mucked T 9 and lost (-4,040 net)
MP2 mucked and won 9,320 (5,280 net)
May 19, 2016
Offline
Just a guppy but,
V doesn’t raise preflop so I’m thinking no pocket pairs of any size
Seems to me that flop fits his range
He seems to play quit a bit but doesn’t go to show downs much, then becomes aggressive (hard to say after only 10 hands, not a large enough sample to determine, could be ya just sat down when he )
the Hero has two pair (A strong hand) giving him 4 outs to a a full house, (can’t really count the 10 more outs for runner runner flush unless we hit on turn giving us 9 more)
Board insanely coordinated and there are many hands that beat you (regardless of what we think he has, cards are within his range)
Turn a blank
Hero checks then folds to a bet
Maybe a bet out there of a little over half (5500) with the following results:
- either getting a possible fold from top pair, straight draw or flush draw,
- A call from a flush draw, straight draw, trips, made straight, top two pair or just top pair
- Re-raise from top pair, a made straight, a flush draw or trips
we should have already considered what we will do at this point after the flop, staying a step ahead is always best.
I however am a live player and don’t have access to online sites
Regards,
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Offline
OP,
Gotta ship it. Villain can have draws or worse for value, you block a lot of the hands you’re most worried about (sets and better two pair), and you have outs against a straight. Yes, you’ll sometimes get it in bad, but that’s poker. You have too much equity to fold, and your hand won’t play well on rivers, so get it in now
Jupiter,
You’re right that those are the three things Villain could do, though I don’t think any of the hands you mention are folding to a bet. What you haven’t explained is why any of those things are good for the Hero.
May 19, 2016
Offline
This is one of the reasons I op’ed to join this sight, Thank you for pointing that out Foucault, I will do my best to state that now and hope to help both me and Almofadinhas out. Please anybody fill in any blanks I may leave.
I said:
Maybe a bet out there of a little over half (5500) with the following results:
- either getting a possible fold from top pair, straight draw or flush draw,
- A call from a flush draw, straight draw, trips, made straight, top two pair or just top pair
- Re-raise from top pair, a made straight, a flush draw or trips
on the turn a blank comes out
V with top pair we still dominate him, Jx he needs a J or a 4 to win, if a 9 or 10 come we win. He would have 5 outs or a little over 10% chance to hit. which means we are a 90% favorite.
V with straight draw, if it’s an open ended straight draw he has 8 outs giving him almost a 17% chance to draw out on us after the turn. Which makes us a 83% favorite.
V with a gut shot straight draw he only has 4 outs or slightly over 8% to hit either way we have the best chances with a 92% favorite.
V with a flush draw, is not much better for him even though he has 9 outs, it only equates to about a little over 20% to hit. This is scarier but still worth the chance in this case. We’re still an 80% favorite.
wink, wink nudge nudge!
It’s unlikely he has trip J’s as he would have raised PRE, or I would anyway with no raises before me, just to get people out that would draw out on me, and to build pot.
It is even more unlikely that he has trip 9’s or 10’s as there are already 2 of each of those out.
V with 4,4 however unlikely but still possible, (maybe it’s his favorite hand, When I play at the Seneca Casino in Niagara a young ladies favorite hand was J4, any J4, in which she would be ahead right now) We would still have the best if a 9 or 10 river as we will get all our chips in and take the pot against a lesser full house.
In most cases, except against maybe the players we know best, and the excruciatingly tight players, a fold is just too tight of a play, and a 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot bet on the turn is a good play. 
If he does win 
, it happens
, we remember if it’s a bad play on his part 
, for future reference
December 30, 2015
Offline
Foucault said
OP,Gotta ship it. Villain can have draws or worse for value, you block a lot of the hands you’re most worried about (sets and better two pair), and you have outs against a straight. Yes, you’ll sometimes get it in bad, but that’s poker. You have too much equity to fold, and your hand won’t play well on rivers, so get it in now
A classic question: Why ship it instead of calling it down? I don’t think any of the hands that are beating us, including the big combos (some are statistically ahead I believe), will fold, and I’m not sure how many worse hands call a shove here. Maybe a bad player with JxQ/K/Ax might call a shove thinking we have a big draw (still…behind, so bad call). By calling we keep in some worse hands and we can still get away from the hand if another heart comes.
I guess this could be used as an argument for folding, but I think there are some hands in V’s range that haven’t gotten there on the turn but are strong enough to fire a 2nd barrel; or as protection for a top-pair hand.
Plus, there are some cards, like a 9, that we can draw to if V has something like KQ or big flush draw that hits. I don’t think our action is representing a set at all, so a boat is under-repped here IMO. (not that we have the odds to draw…I’m just saying we improve sometimes to a better hand)
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Offline
Arguments for shoving > calling:
1. Worse hands (AJ?) may call, or even if they don’t, they fold away equity.
2. Even if V is on a draw that won’t fold, we may still benefit by getting all in against it rather than playing out the turn and river. The problem is that we don’t know which draw he’s on, which opens us up to either getting bluffed out or paying off value bets. Basically, in a confrontation between a made hand with little hope of improving and a hidden draw (i.e. we won’t know when he gets there), the made hand is disadvantaged on future betting streets.
December 30, 2015
Offline
Foucault said
Arguments for shoving > calling:1. Worse hands (AJ?) may call, or even if they don’t, they fold away equity.
2. Even if V is on a draw that won’t fold, we may still benefit by getting all in against it rather than playing out the turn and river. The problem is that we don’t know which draw he’s on, which opens us up to either getting bluffed out or paying off value bets. Basically, in a confrontation between a made hand with little hope of improving and a hidden draw (i.e. we won’t know when he gets there), the made hand is disadvantaged on future betting streets.
I think I would quickly agree in most situations but in this one just about any TP with an overcard and a flush draw is between a 52% and 65% favorite.
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tc9c | 41.41% | 1,203 | 54 |
| JhQh,JhKh,JhAh | 58.59% | 1,713 | 54 |
…but I see your point, I’m just having a hard time coming up with a shove-calling range we aren’t even with at best. Maybe something like:
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tc9c | 45.70% | 34,140 | 2,306 |
| JhQh,JhKh,JhAh,JcQc,JhQd,JT,88,J9,QhTd,KQ,KT,K9,Kj,AJ | 54.30% | 40,774 | 2,306 |
…Even if we make the decision to call-down any board without a heart or J, I think we might pick up a little equity on the run-out? I think you mentioned something about this sort of situation on a pod cast, something like seeing the turn isn’t a bad thing if we are going to see it anyway if we shove.
Your point #1 is interesting. AJ has around 35% equity. I never thought about the value of getting that to fold. Do we want that?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Offline
1. A fold from AJ is preferable to letting it realize at least 35% equity by calling (I say at least because it may do better than that by bluffing us out later or by getting a value bet paid off).
2. We don’t need 50% equity to put the money in. Most likely, what you’re quoting from the podcast was in reference to a spot where Hero had the draw and/or position. It can’t be in the best interest of both players to play the hand out, and in this case I think it’s the Hero who should prefer getting it all in and taking his equity.
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
33 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1
