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99 UTG short stacked late in a live tourney
navinbits
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June 9, 2015 - 6:21 pm
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Hi guys,

Want your expert analysis on this hand I played today in a local casino's summer event (basically a whole week of tournaments with deep structures). Today is the $350 with 10k starting chips, 30 minute levels. Currently 28/149 entrants remain and 18 make the money, min cash is 500 and first place is 14k.

 

Blinds: 800-1600, Ante 200. Chip average is 53k

UTG: Hero (28k) 9diamond9club – Raise to 3600

Folded to CO

CO: Villain (23k) All-in.

D, SB, BB fold, and action is on me.

 

Villain is a tournament regular at the casino and is a fairly tight player. Doesn't always get out of line. Not sure how he has been playing today, since he got moved to my table only recently, and once raised 3100 from MP in 600-1200 level, where I reshoved AcKc from BB and he folded.

 

What should hero be doing here? What do you guys think of hero's raise amount UTG? Should it be bigger so as to commit going all-in since the hand might not play well post flop? 

navinbits
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June 9, 2015 - 7:42 pm
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Analyzing the hand putting in some range for Villain makes me think this is a crying fold. I think to reshove, villain can have JJ+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+. I even added some worst case combos like A10s, KJs, 99+. I find that I am 42% underdog against this range..

Fire
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June 9, 2015 - 8:13 pm
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Think its a pretty easy fold. If villain is tight, as you described, you're either flipping or dominated. Not sure what you mean with your last sentence. If you want to commit yourself you might as well shove it in right there and maximize fold equity, with almost 20 BB that's pretty bad though. Also not sure why 99 plays so bad postflop. You won't win every hand, but that's the name of the game.

 

 

navinbits
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June 9, 2015 - 8:35 pm
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@Fire,

 

In the heat of the moment, I was not analyzing it too well to think it is an easy fold. I was focussed on my stack and how it will get impacted once the blinds pass by. Also, my table had 4 huge stacks (>100k) and I thought to be able to shove efficiently if I fold 99s and my blinds (I will be down to less than 10BB in the next level), I need to double up. I know my rationale is not correct here, but that is the mistake that cost me my tournament life. Wanted to know if everyone in the forum thinks this is a rookie mistake. 

joelshitshow
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June 14, 2015 - 7:38 pm
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You have a bit of an awkward stack in that position. Before the hand was dealt, here are some things to think about to help you plan your move:

  • Does anyone except the blinds have a 10-15BB stack? What will you do if they go all in? (I realize this is what actually happened, but it is something to look for.)
  • If anyone with a larger stack 3-bets me, will I shove? (It's unlikely someone with a larger stack would shove here. If you can't 4-bet shove with 9s, you shouldn't be opening with them.)

I'm thinking open shoving 17 bigs UTG is the wrong choice, although with 28 left are you seven-handed? Maybe it's OK.

 

As played, I think I have to call. If I lose, I still have 3 bigs left, although it does mean I'll be all in on the BB every time. But if you fold you have 15 bigs left and the blinds are about to come through you. Assuming the next level is 1000/2000/200, you have to stay aggressive and try to double up to even have a chance at more than a min cash.

navinbits
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June 15, 2015 - 2:41 pm
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Great insights, Joel! The villain and I were the only two short stacks. We were 28 people and so, two 9-handed tables and one 10-handed table were running. Ours was 9 handed. I didn’t think about 3-bet from the big stacks, which is mistake #1. I didn’t think a lot about the range of the villain, which is mistake #2. At best, I would have been flipping against his range. He had KK and he doubled up. Next hand, I had QJ on the big blind and lost to A7o when I called the button raise.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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June 18, 2015 - 6:35 am
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Intresting spot.

 

Well we're getting 1.5 to 1 on the call which mean's we need around 40% equity to break even , but breaking even isnt good enough we wanna profit so i'd say we would need at least 43% equity here to call.

 

given your reads on villian i'd say the tighest villian is jamming here is 99+ AQs+ and against this range you have 37% equity , which makes it a fold.

 

if you were going to give villian a wider range, lets say for instance 88+ AJs+ AQo+ KJs+ you've now got 43.3% equity which then makes it a call.

 

I'd also like to add that your sizing pre does not need to be bigger to commit , i mean would you play the top of your range like this?  doubtful imo , you'd probably just make a standard raise so you should do this while your whole range including your bluffs, so that better players dont exploit you.

 

The raise pre here is fine as played the call was a costly mistake for sure but hey we learn from it ( well we try too), some people tend to just get it in here with this stacksize pre for many reasons , maybe because they find it pretty akward to play 9s post at this stacksize as most of time there will be an overcard to your 9s OTF, though i dont think its that bad if your called pre , your opponent is only connecting to the flop like  33% of the time which means they'll be folding to a flop c-bet more often then not 🙂

 

 

 

 

 
BinkInc
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June 18, 2015 - 8:28 pm
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I dont think I am ever raise/folding here with my givin stack size unless there is just crazy action behind. I understand that you say villain is tight but with him being in the CO and what seems to be a capable player, me myself, am getting it in here most of the time.

SIGABA
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June 22, 2015 - 6:12 pm
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I would call unless I had some live tell that was glaring me in the face.  I would get the villain talking and see if he gives anything off.  Otherwise toss in the chip 🙂

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