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Only 26 hands with villain 27/27, we are currently 15 of 40 (234 paid)
Poker Stars $8.00+$0.80 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2000/t4000 Blinds + t500 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MP2: BB = 40.5, t162047
CO: BB = 33.8, t135104
BTN: BB = 32.9, t131678
Hero (SB): BB = 29.9, t119461
BB: BB = 38.6, t154295
UTG: BB = 29.6, t118378
UTG+1: BB = 6.9, t27603
MP1: BB = 52.7, t210697
Pre Flop: (t10000) Hero is SB with 9
9
3 folds, MP2 raises to t8000, 2 folds, Hero calls t6000, 1 fold
Flop: (t24000) 7
3 6
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t9600, Hero raises to t22000, MP2 raises to t153547 all in
Pretty much always beat here I reckon, interested in how it was played up to this point….
call flop, let him barrel turn. value bet river if he checks or check/call river if he barrels imo.
Best line against a hijack open from a decently aggressive villain is to 3 bet get it in. He can shove worse, and its better than trying to play a flop with a medium pair oop. If we flat, we should have a plan if we raise the flop. He could have you beat, but He can also be shoving worse hands (any 7, or flush draw, or even two overs with the ace of clubs or something). Your raise looks more like a draw or bluff because the villain would/should expect you to 3 bet overpairs preflop. what was your objective of raising the flop? I don't think you really get the info you need. Easier/better line here is just to 3 bet pre i think. As played i have a tough time folding to his 3 bet shove on the flop.
October 6, 2010
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both above posters are correct imo
if you are going to flat pre, then def play a passive line postflop and let him barrel off, but i also prefer to 3bet here pre
i think flatting preflop is horrible, as others have said i think we either need to 3 bet this hhand or fold and wait for better spots….but this hand is basically the nuts here so im never folding, i make a small 3 bet (~14k) to try and induce a spazz for lower pairs, Ax hands and even broadways will jam here sometimes
also why do you post 27/27 its over 26 hands for cryin out loud (have you seen any hands hes opend its only been like 5 so have they been good or bad, its soooo easy for these stats to be skewed with this tiny of a sample i feel you should be using your brain and common sense to give him a range not your HUD), if you are basing decisions at this point in the tournament off of 26 hands then LOL, if not why would you include it with the hand for people to review in the forum, i am so confused why people always do this and i think it tilts me harder than anything on this entire site
3b get it in pre for sure sb v co. Gotta win these flips to ship tournys
Thanks for the opinions and advice guys
Shawn sorry to have tilted you. I have reason for all you mention (credible or not another matter) but they’d probably just upset you again so I’ll leave it there….
^ wuold love to hear reason, maybe i will stop tilting
October 6, 2010
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shawnivey said:
also why do you post 27/27 its over 26 hands for cryin out loud (have you seen any hands hes opend its only been like 5 so have they been good or bad, its soooo easy for these stats to be skewed with this tiny of a sample i feel you should be using your brain and common sense to give him a range not your HUD), if you are basing decisions at this point in the tournament off of 26 hands then LOL, if not why would you include it with the hand for people to review in the forum, i am so confused why people always do this and i think it tilts me harder than anything on this entire site
first things first, 26 hands IS A RELEVANT SAMPLE
Things we can tell from a 26 hand sample where villain is 27/27
1. He probably rarely open limps.(notice i said probably, of course)
2. He probably doesnt play more than 50% of hands long term
3. He probably doesnt play <10% of hands on average
4. he is more likely to be aggressive than passive preflop
Things we cant tell
1. whether his true PFR is 18, 27, or 32
2. whether he is good-agressive or bad-aggressive (this is where i like to sharkscope someone if i am tanking with a tough decision)
So we definitely can tell a lot about a player from just a small sample size (you have probably heard of bayes theorem which backs a lot of this up)
I'm 3 bet shoving here with 99, just to awkward pot flatting oop with your stack.
Benny owned. Ummm raising the flop is a pretty huge mistake imo. Try 3bet/getting it in if you want more spice.
with that stacksize 3b get it in pre
@Kingofdeuces: I think it definetly tells us sth when he opens 7 of his last 26 hands and I think this is a relevant information to add cause it definetly helps to put him on a (vague) range. maybe you lol but if I'm in this situation I make my decision based on the hud if I havent followed the table closely, cause if this guy has opened only 1 of his last 30 hands I'm thinking about folding but with 6 or 7 recent opens I definetly 3b get it in.
if you open 4 hands out of 5 is the 4th time you open usually stronger or weaker than the 1st 3?,
i get what your saying badabing but i just dont agree with your reasoning for it, im sure you have ran plenty bad over 30 hands and only opened 1 hand, then you open again in the right situation it is still perfectly reasonable and probably good for someone to jam or 3 bet get in 99 vs you,
poker is all about situations, maybe someone hasnt had the right situation to open in 30 hands so they play 1/30 hands, does this mean we should play super nitty vs them because they have only opened 1 hand over 30…no of course not, but if it is 10/300 we should probably start to rethink it a little bit correct? (this is why you hsouldnt be basig your reads off of this few of hands)
and benny i agree with #1 and #4 but i just cant agree with #2or#3 you dont know this at all, its way to easy for people to run good or extremely bad for 30 hands, and you would have no way to tell or guess his VPIP…have never head of bayes theorem
thank you for the response tho benny i appreciate someone finally backing up why they use stats over 25 hands….
October 6, 2010
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with regards to #2 and #3, you are right that its not a guarantee that those statements are true, but ill ask you this
we have three players, A is a true 42/12, B is a true 20/18, and C is a true 12/10
which one of those players is more likely to have a 27/27 sample over 27 hands?
whilst there is a probability that this player is an A or C, at a guess i would say it is like a 70% chance that it is player B. it might be even higher than this. and is probably like 25% being C on a heater and very very rarely player A
i wish i could do the actual maths, or even find the forum posts where i picked this stuff up, but i cant at the moment. ill get back to you if i can. i am going to order bill chen's book too as this stuff really interests me.
so whilst it is not a 100% hard and fast rule, and those guesses as to the probabilities might be off, i think you can get the point. whilst we dont know for sure its player B (and we definitely dont know whether B is a true 27/25 or 18/16 or something else), we can draw some weak conclusions from a 27 hand sample. Obviously we can revise our initial estimate as we go too.
i do get the point that you are very intelligant and are able to base decent reads off these stats, being as you are the only one that had any sort of input to the question for like the last week i feel you are the only one on this site (or who post in the forum) that should feel confident basing reados off of HUD over 25 hands,
i feel everybody else is taking the stats in the wrong context and greatly affecting some important spots, when in fact they should be focusing more on the play of the hand and the situation of the tournament
October 6, 2010
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shawnivey said:
i do get the point that you are very intelligant and are able to base decent reads off these stats, being as you are the only one that had any sort of input to the question for like the last week i feel you are the only one on this site (or who post in the forum) that should feel confident basing reados off of HUD over 25 hands,
i feel everybody else is taking the stats in the wrong context and greatly affecting some important spots, when in fact they should be focusing more on the play of the hand and the situation of the tournament
dont get me wrong, you can definitely base your reads too much off such a small sample, but i think people discount it too much when there are still some conclusions that can be drawn. And we are all here to learn mate, given i am an engineer maths is one of my strengths, but we are all here to improve our game in some way
July 3, 2010
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Check/calling 3 streets is meh to borderline bad. There are going to be so many bad cards that come for you.
If a king or queen comes are you check/calling turn and check/folding river?
I prefer getting it in pre vs. this villain. If you haven't seen him 3 barrel bluff yet you're basically crossing your fingers and hoping he's got it in his arsenal. Doesn't sound good to me.
fully expecting this to tilt you shawn 
but here goes….
please realise I’m not stating that this is correct, just the thought process I went through – I’m not claiming to be a great player at all…. we are all here to learn ay?
HUD stats of 26 hands – similar to benny (although never heard of Bayes therom either, about to look it up) I think that theres a set of players with stats of 27/27 after 26 hands, some running good, some running bad, some somewhere near showing their aggresion tendancies. I think the range of people in this set that are near showing their actual tendancies is greater than the other two options. Basically can use the info you have available, this was some available info. Agreed you cant weight it too much, but it something to consider. Less hands even less weight to the stats, more hands more weight. No i cant tell you what happened with thsoe previous hands as not paying enough attention – which at this stage of ths tourney is a big mistake I know.
As for the rest of the hand –
felt like 99 was too good a hand to fold and wait for better spot, this is a reasonable spot and against what i decided to perceive was probably an agressive opener
defo thought about shipping it, but thought 30bb was too much to ship
considered 3bet calling, but then thought I’d hate to be called and play oop – what do you do here if he calls? Get it in on any flop? (say we 3bet to 20k, we’re left with 100k with 44k in pot)
so I went with the flop dependant play of calling 1.5 bb and seeing if I got a flop i was happy to check raise and get it in (thinking that the probably aggro opener would cbet). Any overpairs, draws, A or K high dry board was what I was looking for…
On this flop figure it looks like I have an overpair and he can only call with what he thinks is a better one, which would have called to a shove, or 4bet my 3bet preflops anyway…. Or a draw in which case he calls with worse?
Looking at the range of responses above I’m guessing everyone thinks this play sucks ay?
sammyboy said:
Less hands even less weight to the stats, more hands more weight. No i cant tell you what happened with thsoe previous hands as not paying enough attention – which at this stage of ths tourney is a big mistake I know.
^^ THISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS IS MY MAIN POINT! but as long as you realize it thats good, its so important to watch how the actual hands play out rather than just looking at numbers every single hand, it will be much more benificial to you especially over a small sample size
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