I think 3bet jamming here just looks so strong, especially if the payjumps are meaningful. There's a villain that is going to be out of the tournament so soon, and yet you want to put all your chips in the middle. I thin that looks incredibly strong

Anyway, stoving it up. What kind of opening range can we give him? I put it up as AJo+ A9s+, KJs, 77+ for about 9% of hands. When faced with our shove, he sees a pot of 127824 and it's going to cost him 92824 chips to call. If his opening range is what I pointed out, but his calling range is only 88+, AQs+ AK+, we have 38% equity against.

If he's only calling that wide, but raising twice as wide, then we show a profit of a little under half of a blind. I did all the math on paper, but:

.047x.6163x(-105324)= – 3050.8

.047x.38370x(220648)= +3979.1

(.094-.047)x25000 = +1175

-3050.8+3979.1+1175= 2103.3

After doing the math, I'm not sure if shoving is best, but it looks profitable. I'm too lazy to include a calling range for short stack and then what calling does to affect our original villain's calling range, though it should definitely have an impact. It probably works out in our favor the wider the shorty's calling range is because it has to tell the villain that he'll get to see your hand either way, and he doesn't need to risk it.

– Jacob

I still say shoving has gotta be profitable over all there. Yeah, he's not raise/calling with worse, but he should still have a raise/folding range that just feeds you chips for every time he folds in that spot. This is one of those spots that playing a 20bb stack has. What are you really going to wait for? You can't 3bet shove with AA every time, and this looks like a normal spot to do it. I'm not happy if we're called, but I'm happy about the move. And since we calculate small edges when we care this much about the game, it should be noted you're better than a flip. 52.5% to AQs and that's if you don't have his suit. If you do, it's almost 53%. These things matter. You got it in good for a great stack to win the tournament. You can't nitfold your way when spots like this show up, else you're going to end up moving up a single payjump instead of 1st. Something bigdog said in his hyper sng's made me think about this spot to be honest. Whenever he had a bigger stack than the big blind and the short stack was not in the blinds, he'd raise to put pressure on the big blind, who knows he can wait another hand or two to make the money. If your villain is thinking at all, which he has to at least a little bit if he's final tabling and not playing like a maniac (which your stats say), then it's certainly not out of the question to think he may be raising slightly wider to put pressure on you in the small blind because the big blind is going out so many times before you.