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98s vs Aggro BTN 3bet in ACR Mill
MovesLikeDarvin

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October 13, 2015 - 9:39 pm
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Button (31BB) is running 29/24/12.0 (BTN 3bet: 17.0) over 500+ hands. Hero covers

This is with with somewhere between 50-125 players left.

 

Game started at: 2015/10/12 2:11:7
Game ID: 492949204 6000/12000 Million Dollar Sunday, Table 57 (Hold’em)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Megaloman1ac (260310).
Seat 2: BenBit (391706).
Seat 3: after1990 (408875).
Seat 4: Rabbl3Rous3r_ (135742).
Seat 5: MovesLikeDarvin (746596).
Seat 6: hiesenbuurg (498487).
Seat 7: easy_game (179669).
Seat 8: A1phad0ggg (374798).
Seat 9: MN_KVANG (1331120).
Player MN_KVANG ante (1200)
Player Megaloman1ac ante (1200)
Player BenBit ante (1200)
Player after1990 ante (1200)
Player Rabbl3Rous3r_ ante (1200)
Player MovesLikeDarvin ante (1200)
Player hiesenbuurg ante (1200)
Player easy_game ante (1200)
Player A1phad0ggg ante (1200)
Player MN_KVANG has small blind (6000)
Player Megaloman1ac has big blind (12000)
Player MN_KVANG received a card.
Player MN_KVANG received a card.
Player Megaloman1ac received a card.
Player Megaloman1ac received a card.
Player BenBit received a card.
Player BenBit received a card.
Player after1990 received a card.
Player after1990 received a card.
Player Rabbl3Rous3r_ received a card.
Player Rabbl3Rous3r_ received a card.
Player MovesLikeDarvin received card: [8c]
Player MovesLikeDarvin received card: [9c]
Player hiesenbuurg received a card.
Player hiesenbuurg received a card.
Player easy_game received a card.
Player easy_game received a card.
Player A1phad0ggg received a card.
Player A1phad0ggg received a card.
Player BenBit folds
Player after1990 folds
Player Rabbl3Rous3r_ folds
Player MovesLikeDarvin raises (26396)
Player hiesenbuurg folds
Player easy_game folds
Player A1phad0ggg raises (58684)

 

Preflop: how do you approach this BTN player type 3betting you? What would be your default play pre?

Player MN_KVANG folds
Player Megaloman1ac folds
Player MovesLikeDarvin raises (83793)
Player A1phad0ggg calls (51505)

 

Postflop: do you play any of the streets differently as played pre? how do you model your river decision here?
*** FLOP ***: [9d 2h Kd]
Player MovesLikeDarvin checks
Player A1phad0ggg checks
*** TURN ***: [9d 2h Kd] [2c]
Player MovesLikeDarvin checks
Player A1phad0ggg bets (68476)
Player MovesLikeDarvin calls (68476)
*** RIVER ***: [9d 2h Kd 2c] [4c]
Player MovesLikeDarvin checks
Player A1phad0ggg allin (194933)
Player MovesLikeDarvin calls (194933)
—— Summary ——
Pot: 775996
Board: [9d 2h Kd 2c 4c]
Player MovesLikeDarvin shows: Two pairs. 9s and 2s [8c 9c]. Bets: 374798. Collects: 0. Loses: 374798.
*Player A1phad0ggg shows: Two pairs. Ks and 2s [Qh Kc]. Bets: 374798. Collects: 775996. Wins: 401198.

 

****

Have already run over this hand with some people and think I should just be ripping pre if I opt to 4bet, which I’m on board with after the fact. Postflop is a whole nother monkey which I’ll give more thoughts on after some posts.

jjpregler
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October 13, 2015 - 10:00 pm
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Since there is not enough implied odds to take a flop with the suited connectors, and that the villain is aggressive, I would look to 4 bet pre.  My decisions to shove are what I call the 25% – 30% rule.  If my bet is 25% of the effective stack I go between 4 betting small and shoving, based on the situation.  When my bet is 30% or more of the effective stacks, I usually just shove.  Your 4 bet of 168k is about 50% of his stack, so I think I would shove preflop.  

MovesLikeDarvin

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October 13, 2015 - 10:48 pm
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jjpregler said
Since there is not enough implied odds to take a flop with the suited connectors, and that the villain is aggressive, I would look to 4 bet pre.  My decisions to shove are what I call the 25% – 30% rule.  If my bet is 25% of the effective stack I go between 4 betting small and shoving, based on the situation.  When my bet is 30% or more of the effective stacks, I usually just shove.  Your 4 bet of 168k is about 50% of his stack, so I think I would shove preflop.  

i like your reasoning, but my 4bet is actually to about 110-120k, which by your rules would be pretty still be quite close to the shove/4b threshold. 

jjpregler
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October 14, 2015 - 5:41 am
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It was hard to tell from the HH exactly what your raise sizing was. But at 120k of about 374k effective it is 32% of the effective stack.

After I wrote that and was thinking about it, obviously, there are exceptions where if my bet is less than 25% I may still decide to shove and if over 30% there are also exceptions that may cause me to choose the smaller bet.  These are just generalities I use, no rule is written in stone.  

Your bet just crosses the 30% threshhold.  I think with your hand being a bluff, you being OOP, I would lean toward a shove.  But again, I wasn’t playing this player.  Did you have any reads that would indicate your FE post flop versus this villain.  Does he give up too often post flop or is your best opportunity to shove now?  However, the SPR would be quite low to be able to force villain into a terrible error post flop.  

Foucault

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October 14, 2015 - 10:44 am
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Surprised no one is considering a pre-flop call. Just because V 3bets aggressively doesn’t mean he’ll be exploitable by 4betting, and in general I’d consider this a much better calling than 4betting hand. Save the tiny 4b bluffs for Axo IMO.

Postflop is an illustration of why this isn’t a good 4betting hand. The SPR is so low that you’re going to have to go with it most of the times you flop a pair, but your pairs just aren’t that good. The line Hero took is definitely how I would play QQ. 98s has somewhat more to gain from V’s flop folds, so I could see underbet-calling on the flop rather than just checking. I suspect H does not have much of a turn check-folding range, and quite possibly no range for check-folding river after calling turn, which further complicates matters.

jjpregler
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October 14, 2015 - 2:38 pm
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I would lean toward folding if i don’t 4 bet here.  Out of position with a weak speculative hand and shallow stacks doesn’t seem like a spot I want to be in.  

joelshitshow
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October 14, 2015 - 3:15 pm
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V plays fairly unimaginatively this hand. Is it possible that, after you 4-bet, he is afraid to be aggressive and then bets for value on turn and river? Does he range you at all or does he just play his own hand?

If he is sophisticated, does he check behind on the flop, thinking your range is slanted toward AJs (but not diamonds)/JJ/AA and that you won’t fold a better hand? Or does he just fear a check-raise? Do you consider his range to be capped after he checks behind?

What happens if you check-raise the turn? Does he get it in? Maybe that’s not the best decision because he won’t fold better.

On the river, do you think he’s running a bluff? I’m not sure whether this looks like a busted draw shoving or a thin value bet.

Foucault

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October 14, 2015 - 4:23 pm
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jjpregler said
I would lean toward folding if i don’t 4 bet here.  Out of position with a weak speculative hand and shallow stacks doesn’t seem like a spot I want to be in.  

And what happened when Hero 4bet?

Foucault

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October 14, 2015 - 4:25 pm
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joelshitshow said
V plays fairly unimaginatively this hand. Is it possible that, after you 4-bet, he is afraid to be aggressive and then bets for value on turn and river? Does he range you at all or does he just play his own hand?

If he is sophisticated, does he check behind on the flop, thinking your range is slanted toward AJs (but not diamonds)/JJ/AA and that you won’t fold a better hand? Or does he just fear a check-raise? Do you consider his range to be capped after he checks behind?

What happens if you check-raise the turn? Does he get it in? Maybe that’s not the best decision because he won’t fold better.

On the river, do you think he’s running a bluff? I’m not sure whether this looks like a busted draw shoving or a thin value bet.

Dude the SPR on the flop is like 1. No you aren’t going to make him fold KQ and there’s nothing thin about his river shove. If he bet the flop, he wouldn’t be trying to make you fold better. He probably, correctly figured that this line gave him the best chance of stacking marginal hands like this one. What’s unimaginative about it? I’d say betting the flop would be far more straightforward (and worse) for V.

GunnJD
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October 15, 2015 - 12:09 am
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When it comes to 4b bluffing with this stack, how valuable is it really to have a 4b/call 4b/fold range? 

If villain is really 3betting us frequently, isn’t shoving (or calling) punishing him much more than a small 4b?

Just because we have between 20-30 bbs doesn’t mean we can’t go all in, especially when there is so much money in the pot, and we don’t have position.

And as I’ve learned on the TPE podcast, when it comes to the game of chicken, getting the last bet in is check mate. 

(I’m not saying we should 4b jam 89s)

Foucault

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October 15, 2015 - 12:27 am
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You can have shove, 4b-call, and 4b-fold ranges, and also a flatting range. 98s does not belong in the 4b-fold range.

joelshitshow
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October 15, 2015 - 10:49 am
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It sounds like I need to study more about SPR. I think my argument would make more sense if V were out of position and his numbers were 29/4 instead of 29/24. I was thinking too much about how he would react to being 4-bet and being afraid of being check-raised by AK.

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