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Just got down to the ft in this $20 27 man sng, 9 left, paying 5. Raiser wasnt too active ,18/14 , and I wouldnt give him too many mid sc’s or junk b’way hands in his range. I figured my AQ was about a flip to his 66+, ATs+, AQo+, along with alot of fold equity. I didn’t really want to spew chips as I felt the chips I would lose were worth more than the chips I would win at this point.
Flatting and folding to a cbet seemed weak, too strong of a hand to fold. A shove may fold 66, 77, 88, and wasnt sure if he would call w AJs, prob not. I really didnt like any beting option here.
BTW – 1st time poster – just joined last week. Really like the site.
Poker Stars $20 No Limit Hold’em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds + t25 – 9 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge
Kiwstraude (UTG): BB = 18.2, t3643
ProV1000 (UTG+1): BB = 20.3, t4050
Majid22 (UTG+2): BB = 11.2, t2245
VonStieglitz (MP1): BB = 29.2, t5845
steve3331 (MP2): BB = 33.8, t6750
PatronAnejo (CO): BB = 16.0, t3207
nikio21 (BTN): BB = 16.5, t3305
HarryO44 (SB): BB = 10.1, t2025
mm209 (BB): BB = 47.2, t9430
Pre Flop: (t525) mm209 is BB with Q[Image Can Not Be Found] A[Image Can Not Be Found]
1 fold, ProV1000 raises to t600, 6 folds, mm209?
^^^^^elaborate
Pushing here is a positive equity play if you give your opp a .70 percent chance of folding and his range is what I mentioned in the op. On average if u push u would win $643 in chips.The lower the fold frequency is the higher our profit is. So if he folds .60% our profit is more.But this is raw chip ev with no ICM variables. I suspect if you crunched the numbers in an ICM calculator like sng wizard, it would be much lower but prob still +ev. I think it may be a questionable play because of risk/reward reasons on how we would stand in the sng pertaining to cashing and winning.
I used an equity spreadsheet that is pretty widespread in diff forms.
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