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July 17, 2012
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About midway through the tournament and I have 24bb left in the MP, and a relatively tight opponent but relatively unknown with 10bb (28 hands running 18/14/0) on the button.
I tanked for awhile on this one and believe against his range here (approx 25% of hands he will three bet jam), that with my hand I should have decent equity, but each hand he shown has been very strong and that made me pause.
Here is the hand history, please let me know a) if its a good spot to call given my stack or not and b) if I have judged his hand range correctly.
888 Poker $3.40 + $0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t400/t800 Blinds – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Hero (MP1): t19148 23.93 BBs
MP2: t41559 51.95 BBs
CO: t21308 26.64 BBs
BTN: t7775 9.72 BBs
SB: t4894 6.12 BBs
BB: t5345 6.68 BBs
UTG: t10895 13.62 BBs
UTG+1: t20280 25.35 BBs
Pre Flop: (t1200) Hero is MP1 with J
A
2 folds, Hero raises to t1600, 2 folds, BTN raises to t7695, 2 folds, Hero ?
October 9, 2012
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Hi,
a) I personally think in this situation it's a fold with the following reasoning:-
Your raise from MP with 24bb, through 2 larger stacks with position on you, looks relatively strong to me (assuming you don't have a crazy image).
This would suggest that the jam from this particular player would do it expecting a call from you or one of the blinds with his 10bb stack.
As the blinds are so short stacked, it indicates a hand he's really not afraid of action with.
b) For his range i'd be thinking A10s+ and say 77+ .. and as he has only shown strong hands i'd go to the higher end of this range.
All of this leaves your AJ on thin ice generally .. Keep your 24bb stack and find a better spot .. 1 double up away from the table chip lead !
July 7, 2012
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What is your image at this point? Had you been opening a fair amount from early / midpositions? As this could be a factor as well.
Running it through Stove with villains range set at 15% you have 51.47% equity.
Pot: Blinds plus ante equal 1840 + 1600 + 7965 = 11405
Cost to you to call: 7965 – 1600 = 6365
cEV = (prob of winning x total pot) – (prob of losing x amount to call)
cEV = (51.47% x 11405) – (48.53% x 6365) = 5870 – 3025 = 2845
From a cEV point of view this looks like a clear call. However, you do have to factor in your image, his image (history) and if you think you have a significant edge over your table and can find better spots.
If you think his range is tighter assign a tighter range and run the math above again.
Hope that helps
October 21, 2012
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are there no antes at 400/800 here?
if there are, I snap call this.
July 17, 2012
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No antes at this stage
My image should be pretty tight at this table. My stats for the session at this table where 15/14/4 and really wasnt getting out of line at all. In fact up until this hand I had 2 orbits since my last open.
I did at the time polarize his range to (AJo, 66+, T9s, etc…) and while I was good against a lot of his range, my gut was telling me otherwise. However statistically and playing optimally I am not sure if following my gut was correct (especially since I didnt have access to use PokerStove and do this analysis at the table).
It's a common spot for me so I appreciate the discussion gents.
Cheers
July 7, 2012
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No antes at 400/800? wow. Well that would change the math i did above a little as i added in antes to the total pot but probably doesnt make it much less +cEV.
I suggest you get Poker Stove (its free to download). Then you can run a bunch of past hands through it for these types of spots and get a good feel for the math. Then when at the table you will have a more instinctive feel for if a call / fold is +Ev or not, as you will rarely have the time bank to calculate accurately at the table.
All that said I am also a big believer in genuine gutfeel for a situation and solid table reads.
October 9, 2012
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Hi,
Some interesting differences of opinion on this one i see !
I agree the call would be a borderline +cEV but feel with all the other factors and the table dynamics described, it leans me firmly to a fold here.
On top of that, if you've got that strong gut feeling that you're crushed, even if the maths makes sense, i like to go with the gut feeling. When i don't, i'm usually heading to the exit door pretty sharpish.
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