We're on the pure FT bubble here in the FTP 50 50. To this point I am playing fairly aggro taking advantage of weaker players near the bubble. Villain was the tightest guy at the table. I wouldn't call him super nitty but he wasn't that playing that many hands compared to everyone else.
Is this a call or fold?
Full Tilt Poker The Fifty-Fifty No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t5000/t10000 Blinds + t1000 – 5 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge
Shpadoones (SB): BB = 21.3, t213436
menvic (BB): BB = 49.8, t498332
thndcu (UTG): BB = 20.7, t207362
RonFezBuddy (CO): BB = 36.9, t368800
The Twelve Step (BTN): BB = 12.6, t125878
Pre Flop: (t20000) RonFezBuddy is CO with 8 8
1 fold, RonFezBuddy raises to t22555, 1 fold, Shpadoones raises to t212436 all in, 1 fold, RonFezBuddy?
July 3, 2010
Based on what you said and the fact that there's a guy left with 12 bigs I think it's a fold.
If he's been playing very tight I don't think he bluff jams on you from the SB with anything you dominate. I'm guessing his range it 99/TT+, AQ+
Could be a couple others we're flipping against like AJs and KQs.
Unsure, though – I feel like my play gets to be too tight deep in mtt's so interested in reading other replies.
without doing the math i'd say this is a super easy fold.
sigh i guess i'll do the math…
we need ~43% against his range and actually its really close if you think he's shoving any sort of reasonable range:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,017,108,576 games 0.719 secs 1,414,615,543 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.985% 42.29% 00.70% 430087644 7116960.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 57.015% 56.32% 00.70% 572787012 7116960.00 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.985% 42.29% 00.70% 430087644 7116960.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 57.015% 56.32% 00.70% 572787012 7116960.00 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
you were the one playing, what do you think his range is?
man i dunno….he's definitely tight but could anyone let go of a pair in this spot against an aggressive OR like me?
I agree with your broadway range but if he shoves any pair then i'm crushing from an EV perspective and should call. I just don't know if he'd shove a pair.
Do you think he understands your opening range and calling range will be significantly differn't? Also, what was the payouts like and how big is the increase in pay for final table in this tourney?
In general though I'd say people will still be playing relatively tight on final table bubble and this is probably a fold assuming the remaining field is soft as a normal 50/50 would be. I'll usually try to take a gamble in these spots and take a small edge if the field is very tough and winning the flip would be more benefitial and increase my EV than not taking a flip…if that makes any sense.
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