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88 on the FT bubble - FTP 50 50
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RonFezBuddy
New York City

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July 27, 2010 - 3:24 pm
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We're on the pure FT bubble here in the FTP 50 50.  To this point I am playing fairly aggro taking advantage of weaker players near the bubble.  Villain was the tightest guy at the table.  I wouldn't call him super nitty but he wasn't that playing that many hands compared to everyone else.

 

Is this a call or fold?

 

Full Tilt Poker The Fifty-Fifty No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t5000/t10000 Blinds + t1000 – 5 players

Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge

Shpadoones (SB): BB = 21.3, t213436
menvic (BB): BB = 49.8, t498332
thndcu (UTG): BB = 20.7, t207362
RonFezBuddy (CO): BB = 36.9, t368800
The Twelve Step (BTN): BB = 12.6, t125878

Pre Flop: (t20000) RonFezBuddy is CO with 8 of hearts 8 of clubs
1 fold, RonFezBuddy raises to t22555, 1 fold, Shpadoones raises to t212436 all in, 1 fold, RonFezBuddy?

FkCoolers
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July 27, 2010 - 4:12 pm
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Based on what you said and the fact that there's a guy left with 12 bigs I think it's a fold.

If he's been playing very tight I don't think he bluff jams on you from the SB with anything you dominate. I'm guessing his range it 99/TT+, AQ+

Could be a couple others we're flipping against like AJs and KQs.

Unsure, though – I feel like my play gets to be too tight deep in mtt's so interested in reading other replies.

Hagbard Celine
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July 27, 2010 - 4:24 pm
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without doing the math i'd say this is a super easy fold.

 

sigh i guess i'll do the math…

 

we need ~43% against his range and actually its really close if you think he's shoving any sort of reasonable range:

 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,017,108,576  games     0.719 secs     1,414,615,543  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     42.985%      42.29%     00.70%          430087644       7116960.00   { 88 }
Hand 1:     57.015%      56.32%     00.70%          572787012       7116960.00   { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }

 

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     42.985%      42.29%     00.70%          430087644       7116960.00   { 88 }
Hand 1:     57.015%      56.32%     00.70%          572787012       7116960.00   { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }

 

you were the one playing, what do you think his range is?

jhammond10
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July 27, 2010 - 4:27 pm
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I gave him 77+, ATs+AJo+KQs+, seems reasonable and comes in at right about breakeven.

edit: kdalsjgk;ladsjgk;ladsjg  so late

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RonFezBuddy
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July 27, 2010 - 4:38 pm
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man i dunno….he's definitely tight but could anyone let go of a pair in this spot against an aggressive OR like me?

 

I agree with your broadway range but if he shoves any pair then i'm crushing from an EV perspective and should call.  I just don't know if he'd shove a pair.

 

equity win tie      pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.014%   47.38% 00.64%     647352156  8725062.00   { 22+, A9s+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 51.986%   51.35% 00.64%     701616312  8725062.00   { 88 }
JDOG1645
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July 28, 2010 - 12:04 am
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RFB…where did you finish in this tourney? I think when I stopped watching you were chip leader.

tlr230
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July 28, 2010 - 12:15 am
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Do you think he understands your opening range and calling range will be significantly differn't?  Also, what was the payouts like and how big is the increase in pay for final table in this tourney?

In general though I'd say people will still be playing relatively tight on final table bubble and this is probably a fold assuming the remaining field is soft as a normal 50/50 would be.  I'll usually try to take a gamble in these spots and take a small edge if the field is very tough and winning the flip would be more benefitial and increase my EV than not taking a flip…if that makes any sense.

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RonFezBuddy
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July 28, 2010 - 12:44 am
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finished 7th.  bunch of coolers.

ttwist

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July 28, 2010 - 1:20 am
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its tough,  guy has a perfect 3 bet shove stack and he couldnt ask for a better time to use it. tough spot

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RonFezBuddy
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July 28, 2010 - 1:53 am
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ttwist said:

its tough,  guy has a perfect 3 bet shove stack and he couldnt ask for a better time to use it. tough spot


 

EXACTLY

 

That said, i don't think he's the guy who's looking for that spot which is why i ended up folding.

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