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October 21, 2013
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The title itself is recepe for disaster, i know.
regardless i think i played all streets correctly, i only have one small doubt though:
150/300 15
villain has a stack of 21K i coved him
i open from utg+2 88 633 , villain from botton 3 bets 1700, blinds fold, i call.
flop: Td63r ck/ck
turn: 9d (opens up a diamond draw, we have the 8d) i bet 1666, he calls
river Jd: i check, he bets 3000, i raise to 7690…
thoughts on how we played the hand ? is there a mistake anywhere throught out the hand ? (i think i found one)
December 11, 2013
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As deep as we are I think the PF flat is fine after he 3bets. I also think your line is OK but would prefer a much larger river raise as this sizing makes it pretty easy for villain to click call with any Jx or better.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I'm not a fan. It's a big enough 3b that I'd just fold pre. Definitely not a fan of the river c/r, it doesn't seem plausible to me that you would check a big hand in this spot, as you have no reason to believe Villain will bet. His line suggests he's looking for cheap s/d.
January 15, 2013
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Unless you've seen him make this large a 3 bet light before (in which case I would probably 4 bet him) I agree with folding pre. As played, imo you're making it too cheap for villian to call on the river even if he is inclined to believe you.
October 21, 2013
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(results: villain tanks a lot and calls with KK)
good luck calling with any Jx here btw
Anyway, yeah the (obvious) mistake imo was the river size, at least 1,5K more… =(
Foucault said:
I'm not a fan. It's a big enough 3b that I'd just fold pre. Definitely not a fan of the river c/r, it doesn't seem plausible to me that you would check a big hand in this spot, as you have no reason to believe Villain will bet. His line suggests he's looking for cheap s/d.
mmm Andrew didnt you once told me that if we had a situation like this stack-wise (like here we have to call 1060 and villain has 20K behind) it would be profitable calling pp ?
(Flatting 99 and TT, i guess right ?)
Btw this hand got me thinking, how would we play our entire range here ?
given the stack sizes i would usually flat 66 TT 89s JTs T9s QJs KQs: which on this run out can give us
1-Two pairs (T9 JT)
2-SETs (66 TT JJ 99)
3-flushes
4- TPMK, MPMK
So Andrew you would simply bet-fold 1, 2 and 3 here (using a pretty big size too right) ? and check folding 4 ?
Dont you think that all the hands that are gonna call our decent-size bet river, are the same hands that are gonna bet when checked to on the river ? or am I too biased by the fact that he showed up with KK here ?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Set mining is about a lot more than just stacks. You have to consider the likeilhood of getting his stack when you hit, which is tougher to do from OOP and tougher to do against a balanced range (I'd rather call here against a guy guaranteed to have an overpair). I think the fact that you're trying to bluff here demonstrates that you really can't count on stacking him a terribly high % of the time. Admittedly 88 is probably the best pair I would fold, so this can't be too bad, but I think you also have to realize substantial non-set value to make a call profitable, and that's tough to do OOP with 88 (as illustrated here).
You're right about how I'd play those sorts of hands on the river. Basically I just don't think V has air, and that's the only hand I'd really want to check river against. Villain's calling range has to be wider than his value betting range. It just has to be.
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