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TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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Shove?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I have to think this is slightly exploitable, because in theory SB can recognize that BB is sitting and adjust his own calling range accordingly. However, I doubt most people will appreciate just how wide they should be calling in his shoes, in which case jamming any two is probably good, and this is a bit better than any two anyway.
November 18, 2014
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We need the SB to call with less than his 25% for this to be profitable. Sweetspot seems to be at 30%.
A couple of different simulations give me this:
Villain calls with 50% of his range:
EV = 0.5*2.3+ 0.5(0.35*15 – 0.65*15) = -1.15
Villain calls with 30% of his range:
EV = 0.7*2.3 + 0.3(0.34*15 – 0.66*15) = 0
Villain calls with 25% of his range:
EV = 0.75*2.3 + 0.25(0.32*15 – 0.68*15) = 0.375
Villain calls with 20% of his range:
EV = 0.8*2.3 + 0.2(0.32*15 -0.68*15) = 0.76
Villain calls with 10% of his range:
EV = 0.9*2.3 + 0.1(0.29*15 -0.71*15) = 1.44
A 30% range may look like this:
55+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
Which I think is not too scary for a villain to call with (i.e. it is not like when you know it is profitable to call with J5s but calling with such a hand is “scary” because the hand is really weak). All in all I’d say this is a fold… (just to disagree with Andrew :P)
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Thanks for doing the math on this, chaos. I think there’s a small error in your equation, though. If I’m reading it right, you are doing %Fold * 2.3 + %Call(%Win * 15 – %Lose * 15). You need to multiply %Win by 17.3, as when Hero is called and wins, he not only doubles his stack but also wins the blinds and antes. Seems like that would be enough to make shoving profitable even if Villain calls 30%?
November 18, 2014
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You are right. Should be as you say which moves the sweet spot of 0 EV to about 33.5% …
So as long as the villain is calling with less than that range it is a profitable spot.
Crazy thought… I wonder how many times would the Villain tank to fold trying to give time to the BB to come back and whether that would change the move at all.
February 14, 2013
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I just treat this as effectively a blind v blind spot, so I think for 15 this is probably one notch less than nash (think 78o is the bottom) so its probably alright.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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jonmon101 said
I just treat this as effectively a blind v blind spot, so I think for 15 this is probably one notch less than nash (think 78o is the bottom) so its probably alright.
Yeah that’s more or less what it is, but there are some important differences in that the button hasn’t posted anything blind (ordinarily he’s got half a BB in there already, which affects the profitability of his shoves) and likewise the BB has posted only half a BB.
February 20, 2015
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How long has the BB been absent? If more than a few orbits, have you noticed the SB adjust play in previous orbits?
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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If you have HRC you can run this as it is, but with the BB’s calling range set at 0%. That’ll give you your minimally exploitative range there (basically Nash but with the BB taken out). At the very least, there is a range that exists that the SB can’t exploit, and at worst, I imagine the SB isn’t likely to be exploiting you hard enough. This might be the bottom of my shoving range here (or close to it) but I think it’s probably okay to get in.
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