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(1 votes) 
August 4, 2015
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Poker Stars $15.00+$1.50 No Limit Hold’em Tournament – t50000/t100000 Blinds + t12500 – 8 players (15 players remaining )
BTN: t2059996 M = 8.24
SB: t1555590 M = 6.22
BB: t1017025 M = 4.07
UTG: t2197907 M = 8.79
UTG+1: t2010569 M = 8.04
MP1: t814190 M = 3.26
Hero (MP2): t738904 M = 2.96
CO: t614428 M = 2.46
Pre Flop: (t250000) Hero is MP2 with J 
A
UTG raises to t200000, 2 folds,
Hero= ?!?!
No reads except that villain seems not to get out of line too much.
I went all-in here and I dont know if this is a mistake from my part. But i want to check it with you guys.
I guess he is raising here with 66+ ATs+ AJo+ KQs+ ~ in this case my equity against his range is 40/60 to his favour.
If i wait, and i dont get any more opportunities untill im in the small blind, I will probably be in a 50/50 situation with 4-5bb since i have to push with almost my whole range and he has to call with a wide range aswell.
If i interpret ICMizer correct its -0.44% in ICM%EV. How much is this? And can you deviate from ICMizers result this close to final table?
3 questions in total. Please help fellow TPE members and instructors.
May 30, 2012
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If I’m seeing this right. You have 7bbs………… I’m shipping AJ in this spot all day.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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It’s really that simple? Any time you have AJs and 7bb all the money goes in, no matter the action in front of you?
June 25, 2015
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If action folded around to me w/ AJs and 7bb, I’d push for sure. However, only knowing V doesn’t get out of line too much is worthy of some pause, but I think I would be doing the same.
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February 20, 2015
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On one hand, the big stack could be raising with any two. On the other, he only has 21 bigs. How do the stacks at this table compare with the other one?
Besides the original raiser you also have to get through 4 more stacks. Another minor point is your table has one more player than the other table, so even if you’re hand-for-hand, you get more hands per orbit than the other table.
I would need more information about the original raiser. Has he had a 21BB stack for a while? Have you seen enough hands to know for sure he doesn’t get out of line?
August 4, 2015
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Thank you for replying.
Though I´m afraid i don´t have too many good answers.
Utg raiser is vpip17/pfr13 and i have some hands on him before this tournament. BUT that doesnt necessarily say how he is going to play lategame stage i guess. Didn´t actually play too many hands with him at this table and this stage in this tournament.
The other table i would say the dynamic is about the same with a couple of 20bb stacks and a couple of 1.x million stacks . 1 stack is shorter than me. Just observed it a while.
I also worry a bit as you say about the other players action after me and how it affects the push.
I feel like (if he is not raising wide) I was basically taking a gamble against (at least) UTG1 as an 40/60 underdog. Might as well call from BB with ATC then maybe.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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toyz said
Might as well call from BB with ATC then maybe.
Why are you acting like that’s your only other option? You’re going to get dealt three more hands before it’s your BB. You may well have the chance to make a profitable open shove. Even if you don’t, it’s probably not going to be correct for you stack off any 2 in the BB (though you should stack off quite wide). But like if you have 72o in BB against an UTG raise, folding will be better than stacking off.
There are opponents against whom this would be a profitable shove. If you have reason to believe V is opening wider than he should be, you can jam here. If you don’t know what his range will look like, then the best you can do is work off of optimal ranges, which is more or less what HRC is doing, and that means folding.
February 2, 2013
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This is a shove with AJ suited.
I think Hero might be worried about gambling in this spot because he expects the Villain to call his shove and there is a approximately a 40 to 60% chance that he is going to get knocked out of the tournament. Correct me if I am wrong Hero, but would you prefer to open shove and pick up the blinds uncontested ?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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smallcat66 said
This is a shove with AJ suited.
Care to explain why? Do you think shoving is +EV? If so, why? Or are you saying Hero should shove even if it’s -EV? If so, why?
I think Hero might be worried about gambling in this spot because he expects the Villain to call his shove and there is a approximately a 40 to 60% chance that he is going to get knocked out of the tournament. Correct me if I am wrong Hero, but would you prefer to open shove and pick up the blinds uncontested ?
Of course Hero would prefer that.
August 4, 2015
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Not atc exactly, but MAYBE 7,5o from big blind will make it break even.
And yes I probably undervalued the chance of being first in during the next 3 hands, pushing with fold equity is so valueble here.
This discussion certainly has made me more aware then before. Very interesting to hear different aproaches.
February 2, 2013
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I do not know if it is plus EV but I do know that I am short stacked and I have a good hand so ye I am shoving. Like what am I waiting for, Aces?
September 29, 2014
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You are waiting for a spot to get GII first in if possible. 7bb is enough to get folds with open shoves with those stacks. MP, EP raise…might be a shove sure but def worth considering folding at least. FE is your friend
June 23, 2014
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Very interesting spot and I agree with Focault that it is worth noting you do not need to be shoving every time here with AJs. I know you mentioned that you do not have much information on villain but if you are stacking off than most likely your up against a flip, probably being beat going into flop most times(as you noted). As stated, waiting for a better spot to shove is also fine but what you did is also fine. Don’t think their is a clear cut answer here.
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