Ok I was in the Bovada $22 Knockout MTT, $5 bounty on everyone's heads. 8 handed, close to the bubble. I pick up 77 on the button. UTG limps. I have no information on him, he has seen 3 hands and this is the first one he's played – limping UTG. It folds to the hyjack and he shoves for 16.5bb. The cutoff folds and it's on me.
I have seen 32 hands on the hyjack, and he's only ever come in for a raise. His stats are VPIP 19% PFR 19% 3bet 8%. The first hand he sat down at the table he 5x and took it down uncontested. After that his raises were 2x, except he 3bet shoved QQ when he was down to 12bb and he doubled up. After seeing a history of that, my read on him is TAG.
So here I am with 77 on the button, 28bb. UTG limps w/ 20bb. Hyjack shoves for 16.5bb. The SB has 15bb and BB has 43bb.
Bovada NLH 1000/2000/200
Pot is 4600
UTG: 20bb limp
Hyjack: 16.5bb all in
Hero: 28bb 77
SB: 15bb
BB: 43bb
What do you think?
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
i am probably folding here. utg limp suspicious, HJ seems unafraid of this by shoving over. your hand not strong enough to justify risking bubbling. even if u argue its “ahead of his range” based on stats (say his stats were like 24/22 or something instead), you're still not “that” far ahead of a random top 24% hand to want to put that many chips at risk on the bubble. bounty probably irrelevant for icm unless its a huge % of the buy in (generally its not tho).
Thank you for the response Chris 🙂
Does anyone know how to calculate the expected value of chips in a bounty? I think this is how you do it but I'm not sure…
The bounties are $5, and the money going to the payout was $15. I think I heard in a podcast or training video that you have to count the bounties as a portion of your chips. The starting stack was 5000 to each player, so by that logic 3750 chips are in the prizepool and 1250 are in the bounties. When you are deciding to call an all in of another player, instead of thinking of getting $5, think of getting an extra 1250 in chips. At the beginning of a tournament this can sway your decision much more than later in a tournament when 1250 in chips makes very little difference. (If you have a stack of 150,000 then 1250 is nothing).
Does this seem logical or am I way off here?
Thanks,
~SIGABA
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