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77 in SB facing a 3 bet from BB
TheChimp
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February 16, 2014 - 12:00 pm
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This is my first HH post on here so sorry it it is wrong, I know there is a way of working through the maths on this example and would love someone to break this hand down in that way for me it would be a great starting point for me and help me understand how to work these situations out. The BB was running at 15/15 over 41 hands. Should I have shoved first, checked, folded to the shove or raised as I did? The bubble was aproaching but I would never play for that in a MTT at these stakes.

Hope it all makes sense.

 

Poker Stars $25.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t200/t400 Blinds + t50 – 9 players 

BTN: BB = 14.2, t5680
Hero (SB): BB = 29.8, t11903
BB: BB = 16.7, t6679
UTG: BB = 26.5, t10598
UTG+1: BB = 39.5, t15810
UTG+2: BB = 12.8, t5122
MP1: BB = 23.9, t9550
MP2: BB = 11.0, t4416
CO: BB = 12.6, t5023

Pre Flop: (t1050) Hero is SB with 7 of clubs 7 of hearts
7 folds, Hero raises to t1200, BB raises to t6629 all in

DarkLady
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February 16, 2014 - 1:29 pm
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You have a 12% chance at a set. you have nearly 30 BB. How about a min to 1200? If someone shoves, dump, not much damage? This is simple, but sometimes I make these quick decisions with small pairs. If the flop is something like 854, then shove.

TheChimp
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February 16, 2014 - 1:45 pm
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Thanks but I did bet £1,200 and he shoved. I am kind of looking for a comprehensive answer based on ranges and odds of making the call

TheChimp
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February 17, 2014 - 3:13 am
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I decided to not be lazy and find the answer out for myself and found ICM with a google search. How good is this? Just need to learn how to use it properly now. My first effort without the tutorial says I should have shoved them pre.

DarkLady
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February 17, 2014 - 11:45 am
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Shoving with a small pair is usually a disaster. Why risk your tournament life with 30 BB? You often will get called by AK ( about a 45:55) or KQs, about the same. Or, real disaster a larger pair. Why not take the safe road as I suggested?

jacobsharktank
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February 17, 2014 - 1:21 pm
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If youre talking about strictly blind vs blind right now, as the hand itself played., then you don't have 30bb. You have an effective stack of 16.7bb so if you were to shove, you'd be hsoving 16.7bb and have 13.3bb behind. This is most certainly not the same thing as shoving 30bb into another stack of 30bb. You don't really have a lot of hands on the villain, but given that over the 40 hands he has no gap between his preflop raising and putting money in the middle, and it's at 15%, i'd say it's more likely than not he's going to converge somewhere near a reggy player. Has he 3b shoved at all lately or open shoved at all? If he 3bets light or simply knows that you open light here and thus reshoves lighter or simply knows to shove light, eg taking spots like these with hands like Ax, then I totally love limp/call. I fell in love with it this weekend. I normally open or fold nearly every bvb confrontation, which leads to more barreling and playing trickier and having swingy pots, especially since I'm pretty much dictating I'll be playing out of position hands big (raise + cbet usually at least). If he's shoving like A3 and K7 in addition to KT QJ A9, 88 etc, then I like limp/calling here. I'm at work, so can't check math but… 42 combos of bigger pairs than yours, 30 combos of pairs smaller than yours, youre slightly better than flipping (not 45/55) against any overcards he can have (and you have dead money from antes and whatnot). also 1 combo of = hand strength lol. 42:32 is really the only thing you need to worry about here because youd be correct in calling for a flip if you don't believe yourself to have a spectacular edge in other spots (and you shouldn't. This seems similiar to me when asked what to do with AK bvb and first hand of the mainevent guy open shoves QQ…nearly everyone who would fold in order to maximise edges elsewhere is overestimating their ability and the variance involved in a tournament…so i tend to avoid thinking about getting rid of coin flips, especially when youre getting better than even money (antes+the blinds that are no longer yours currently staring you in the face when its folded to you). In order to correctly call then (when icm isnt a factor and chipEV is basically equal to $ev), you need to combat the 10 combos where you're a 4:1 dog. Him shoving A2-A5s is 16 combos right there. While I'm not exactly sure if you can r/c without reads doing more math, the brief rundown I gave should show you the other option in limp/deciding. Plus people play so strangely after you limp blind vs blind that it looks like you can cbet most boards nad theyll just get out of the way. 🙂

TheChimp
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February 17, 2014 - 4:31 pm
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Thanks both of you for your replies, I love this site. It really is making me think and see things differently

MovesLikeDarvin

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February 20, 2014 - 7:57 pm
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i like most of what jacob said–great post!

since youve said youve gone over some icm calculators and such ill make this sort of brief. 

i would generally be raising to call all in preflop (vs players that i know will resteal all in enough) or just shove all in for 16bb (vs players that i think will call and be difficult to stack postflop when im good). both of these options have merit in different situations and should be ones that you get used to fairly quickly.  

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