Home
(0 votes) 
Absolute Poker No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t150/t300 Blinds + t25 – 5 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
PIRATE22 (SB): BB = 66.2, t19858
BLFFCATCHR (BB): BB = 42.0, t12613
NGUYHIEMQ111 (UTG): BB = 27.3, t8188
MEATYPANTS (CO): BB = 33.5, t10062
Hero (BTN): BB = 30.7, t9221
Pre Flop: (t575) Hero is BTN with 7
7
2 folds, Hero raises to 700, 1 fold, BLFFCATCHR raises to 10,400
**Alright guys, crucial decision. I am semi-active given this is a 6max tourney. It started with 169 and paid 12 spots with first being 600 bones. I am 12 of 19 players left at this point and I am going for the win.
Villians stats are 27/27 after 41 hands and I remember him 3betting me earlier, I checked his 3bet % preflop and it was 33%. I figure he can be doing this 3bet very light.
Do we make the call? Thoughts?
October 6, 2010
Offline
looks like he has AK to me and doesn't want you flatting any sort of standard 3bet
I plugged all of the info above into the TPE EV Calc spreadsheet, which was easy. What I found difficult is working out his range here. You are close to the bubble so he could be doing this light, but if you do call you've completed crippled him. Let's try the following ranges and go from there…
Vs JJ-66,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ (5.7%) we are 44.087%
Plugging this into the spreadsheet, our net EV of a call is -836 chips, or -2.79BBs and our chance of busto is 55.91% (given that we would win 44.09%). This makes this a fold.
Vs JJ-22,ATs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,AJo+ (10%) we are 53.144%
Plugging this into the spreadsheet, our net EV of a call is +885 chips, or +2.95BBs and our chance of busto is 46.86%. I think this makes it a call.
10% isn't a particularly wide range, although as a 3b it probably is (it would be in cash games). You say his 3b was 33% – how many hands was this over? If it's just 3, 6 or even 9 hands then I don't think it's enough hands to make a strong evaluation just yet, especially as you said you only have 41 hands on villain. VPIP and PFR tend to converge earlier so he probably is LAG, but his true 3b % will take longer to work out.
Against the 10% above we are racing against everything but the pairs, losing to 88+ and beating 22-66. I would need to see villain putting a lot of pressure on close to the bubble to think about making this call. You still have 28BBs and I feel you can find a better spot. Hope that helps.
you have 30bb vs super hyper 3better. it sucks to stack off here with 30bb but because we've been somewt active ourselves and this villian is a maniac makes me want to snap call in these spots.
lets consider the factores here:
1) we've been semi active which puts our 77 ahead of most perceived ranges(Positive)
2) we're vs a villian thats 3betting a high percentage in which case 77 is likely the best hand(Positive)
3) we're only five handed(Positive)
4) if we call and win, we're amongst the chip leaders and have a greater chance of shipping tourny or going deeper into money(Positive)
to me the only negative here is when we're crushed by an ovr pr. never mind flipping vs such villian. it just sucks when we finally make the call and he's fully loaded. i call here. as u mentioned u play for the win and this is definately a spot that is favorable and can give us a shot.
bjizz
bjizz your thinking was right along with mine. I figured it was a good spot to take the flip and give myself a real chance at it. I called and I was flipping with KQ (so read on villian was spot on)…lost the flip and went out….gg
I dont regret the call but I wanted everyone's opinion. Thanks for the thoughts.
Thanks for posting the interesting spot. This is such a tough spot for me when I run into it, and I think I tend to be a bit on the tight side. My thought is that w 30 bb I don't think I want to flip at this point. Even if I think it is highly likely that the guy is light, most of the time I think I am flipping. I think that I can often find better ev spots by open raising or 3 betting myself, rather than calling what is effectively a shove. If I am closer to 15 bb its probably going in. I think that developing these calling ranges is one of the tougher aspects of this game. With your stack I am probably calling 99+, AJs+, AQ+. Am I a total nit? Any feedback is appreciated. marty
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
82 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1
