MP2 is 65/0 over 34 hands so I thought this was a perfect spot to add 25% to my stack and 75s sucks out pretty well if called. What do you think?
Poker Stars $10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t75/t150 Blinds + t20 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MP2: BB = 27.4, t4115
CO: BB = 43.6, t6540
Hero (BTN): BB = 14.3, t2140
SB: BB = 61.9, t9285
BB: BB = 26.9, t4040
UTG: BB = 13.2, t1980
UTG+1: BB = 28.7, t4305
UTG+2: BB = 27.2, t4083
MP1: BB = 18.0, t2705
Pre Flop: (t405) Hero is BTN with 7 5
4 folds, MP2 calls t150, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2120 all in
These 2 tools will help you with these decisions.
Here is your hand stove/fe calc'd out…
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.320% 63.89% 00.43% 229746947 1536855.00 { 22+, A4s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, A8o+, KQo }
Hand 1: 35.680% 35.25% 00.43% 126763183 1536855.00 { 7d5d }
When you run this equity through the fold equity calculator villan only needs to fold about 56% of the time or more to make this shove profitable. So the question becomes do you think villan will fold 56%+ of the time? This calling off range might be slightly wide, but I have no info on villan. Also when shoving for f.e. it's better to overestimate villan's calling range because it's better safe than sorry when making moves like this.
October 6, 2010
these are spots where i constantly overestimate my fold equity and villain calls down with KJo and holds.
Yeah it sort of comes down to whether this guy can fold some hands like KJ, A7, some small pairs,etc… He's probably limping in with hands like these and might only fold to jams that can cripple or eliminate him. If he's not going to at least fold some of these then it's not good for you, however, if he's the 65/0 that has folded a few times to preflop raises prior to this then it could be a good spot. If your not sure your probably best to just fold this imo.
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