November 14, 2012
If it wasn't for the fact that you're holding a Q, I'd say that AQ was a big part of his range. I suppose Axcc would also be in there if the x was any other broadway card. AA and KK shouldn't be discounted either, as he may be flatting with the top of his range and 3-betting with the middle of it. I can't see him getting too far out of line in his opening range with stats like 9/6 even if the sample size is small.
If you flat there should be about 1500 in the pot and you'd have around 2500 left behind. It's a little big to be trying to gii on the turn, but definately you could flat here and if no club hits definately look to be all in by the river. On the other hand you could always raise to about 1290ish now and look to gii now expecting to be ahead almost all of the time.
As far as I can see, you're probably ahead now, and the times you aren't its just a sick sick cooler. So peeling one and going for it on any non club probably isn't a bad line to have here, but you may be loosing value against any flush draws that would be willing to gii right now.
KQs/AQ/77 is definetly in his flatting range, VictorAlv is reg and I'm not sure he is raising his flush draws here. I would say call his raise and reevaluate on the turn, if hes turn bet sizing is setting up for river shove I think we could make a tough fold.
It is really interesting spot, really curious to see outcome.
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July 3, 2010
Not many people raise a flush draw on a paired board like this and it sucks that we basically have the 2nd worst Qx that'll ever show up here.
His stats show he's not a laggy accumulator pre-antes so I think we need to just call and see the turn.
I think your plan is the same one I'd have, florian. Like I said, it's concerning that only Q9o/Q9s will probably be the only Qx we ever see in this spot that isn't beating us.
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