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6BB stack shove or fold?
TheClubber
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November 10, 2015 - 8:40 pm
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$200 live tournament. 25 players left, 15 paid.

V1 fairly weak player playing a little too loosely 40BB

V2 tight passive player 20BB

Blinds 600/1200/100

V1 opens 2400 UTG 1. V2 calls MP1. Folds to hero in cutoff. Hero has 8000 and ATo. 

Shove or fold?

What’s the weakest hand you shove here?

Thomps
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November 12, 2015 - 9:12 am
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What range do you think he’s opening from UTG? And V2’s calling range? Against a 20%+ opening range I think it’s a jam but not if he’s opening tighter than that.

I don’t think you have any fold equity here, so we could consider it a call to a 7bb push from UTG, which I would be calling with something like AJo+, ATs+, 66+, KQs.

ATo seems pretty border here to me, but If we think V2’s call is dead money it will probably be enough to put our chips in.

theginger45

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November 12, 2015 - 11:38 am
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Think the deciding factor here should be the likelihood of getting called twice. If we shove, do we think V1 is likely to be aware enough to reshove over V2, making V2’s call dead money? Or is there a possibility that V1 just flats, and V2 flats behind? Judging by your player descriptions, I think it’s the latter, in which case I think folding ATo is acceptable here since our 3-way all-in equity will be quite poor. I would prefer going with a hand like KJs or something else suited and conneced if we think there’s a reasonable chance of getting all-in 3-ways.

We don’t really need fold equity to get it in here though, obviously, since a) we don’t have any, and b) we’re risking our 6bb to win around 6.5bb that’s already in the pot, which will go up to 14.5bb if both players call our shove. It’s early in the morning here but by my estimation, adding our 6bb to the pot and dividing it by what we’re risking should give us an equity threshold of around 29%, if I’m correct. Against two somewhat loose ranges, ATo has around 29.6% compared to KJs having around 31%, but when the ranges get a little tighter, KJs stays at around 29% while ATo drops to 25%.

It’s pretty borderline either way. If we expect V1 to isolate us and make V2 fold 100% of his range, I think it’s a clear shove. But if we expect to get all-in 3 ways, it might be slightly south of profitable.

TheClubber
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November 12, 2015 - 4:47 pm
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Thanks for the insight. If none of the blinds wake up with a hand and both players call, I need just under 30% for it to be a break even call.  Given the player types it didn’t seem likely that V1 would isolate, especially since her body language was more “I guess I’ll see what happens.” than a more deliberate raise.

I put ATo in slice against a top 20% range for V1 and a 6-25% range for V2 and got 36% equity.

I tried again picking specific hands for V1 – {77+, A8s+ K9s, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo} and a range for V2 of mid pairs, weaker aces and two broadways and my equity went down to 30%. 

It seems like a borderline situation, but I probably should have found a pair and shoved.

I ended up folding. The short stack SB shoved A8s, V1 flat called K9s and V2 called A5o, so my sense that she was light and he was also weak was confirmed.

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