Starting field of 1100 runners, down to 12 runners now.
Reads on Villian, he had raised with Q5s from co to try and steal blinds etc, a “very” short stack shoved from blinds and he had a mandatory call.
Stats on Villian VP:34 PFR:15 3bet:11 over 26 hands
I'd considered shoving preflop, but with 22xBB, I went for the 2x open.
My cbet on the flop was larger then normal as I wanted him to fold, normally I'd make it around 1/2 pot.
Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t4000/t8000 Blinds + t1000 – 6 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
UTG: BB = 15.9, t127469
MP: BB = 12.3, t98686
Hero (CO): BB = 22.2, t177983
BTN: BB = 8.5, t68202
SB: BB = 18.3, t146375
BB: BB = 38.7, t309405
Pre Flop: (t18000) Hero is CO with 6 6
2 folds, Hero raises to t16000, 2 folds, BB calls t8000
Flop: (t42000) 8 7 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t33000, BB raises to t66000, Hero ????
This hand has me totally stumped as to what best play is pre. I believe the argument goes that raise/folding to a shove or 3 bet is bad with a hand that has decent equity because the purpose of your raise is to steal the blinds and antes, right? Then u might as well do it with 27o they say.
I don't think open shoving is best here bec even though it's most definitely a +ev play, do we really want to shove when we are 2nd chipleader here, and our opp's know we are not doing this with our premiums.
I think it makes it extra tricky that the chipleader is the bb here and he's almost always going to call a minr or possibly a 2.3x raise.
Could open folding be the best play? That doesn't sound right, either. But there are several stacks shorter than us and staying out of this trouble hand may be OK for ICM reasons, don't really know.
As played, I would try to find a way where we are the ones that put in that last bet, like a ch/r shove. Then we force him to make the tough decision. If he checks behind, we can do the same thing on the turn if he bets after our check. This is all much easier said than done, of course.
And as far as ranging the villain, I think any action he takes on the flop will not narrow his range that much here so it makes for tough situation all around.
Anxious to hear how others would play this hand.
Thanks savant/mmfitter, alot of what you said makes sense and it pretty much went through my mind, shoving pre etc (didn't like doing it, plus we still have 22xBB), but I didn't want to make my open too much bigger (as the blinds went up, I started to reduce my open down towards 2x) otherwise I fold to a jam etc, but in only making it 2x I give the big stack odds too call etc….
Interested to hear what others have too say. I'll follow up with results afterwards.
I never shove this pre unless I’m around 16bb or below. So PF is fine
The spot is obviously tricky because of your stack size. I know everyone always says cbet the dry flop but I think since you have some SD equity with the pocket pair I prefer the check back on the flop with your stack.
Since you did cbet (agreed that it is too big) and got it clicked back I think your only option is to fold. He may be bluffing yes, but by proceeding with the hand your pretty much committed to the pot. So what are your options if you think you might still be ahead? Calling is out since you’ll be committed on any future bet and are you really gonna fold when a K turns and he fires? The only reasonable option if you think he is bluffing is shoving, which is turning your hand into a bluff. I just don’t like it at this stage unless you have a good solid read on him that he does this often with air (which you can’t have over 26hands)
Even if he is bluffing and has 2 overs (best case scenario) your not a huge favourite since if the 7 pairs your sixes are counterfitted. So he has 9 outs twice against your sixes if he’s bluffing.
You took your shot, just fold and preserve your tournament life instead of taking this high variance shove spot
IMO
October 6, 2010
min raising is fine here.
sometimes i find that at these stakes, you get a lot more folds if you go to 16666 or 16060 or something like that rather than just straight min raising. fish can never ever seem to fold the bb.
yes its good that we always get to play position against people who flat out of the BB, but i just find it works slightly better to make your raise sizes slightly bigger. (this is after a fair bit of experimentation with min raises)
July 3, 2010
Thanks for the comments/thoughts.
Here is the entire hand with results……
Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t4000/t8000 Blinds + t1000 – 6 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
UTG: BB = 15.9, t127469
MP: BB = 12.3, t98686
Hero (CO): BB = 22.2, t177983
BTN: BB = 8.5, t68202
SB: BB = 18.3, t146375
BB: BB = 38.7, t309405
Pre Flop: (t18000) Hero is CO with 6 6
2 folds, Hero raises to t16000, 2 folds, BB calls t8000
Flop: (t42000) 8 7 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t33000, BB raises to t66000, Hero raises to t160983 all in, BB calls t94983
Turn: (t363966) K (2 players – 1 is all in)
River: (t363966) 9 (2 players – 1 is all in)
Final Pot: t363966
Hero shows 6 6 (two pair, Eights and Sixes)
BB shows 9 7 (two pair, Nines and Eights)
BB wins t363966
Given the stats on this villain, he is certainly a more aggressive player, but 26 hands is too small of a sample to believe he's bluffing more times than not in this spot. HUD stats really need to be used to create a general characterization of your opponents. Far too often, I think people (myself included) rely too much on these numbers and thus make assumptions on fairly weak grounds imo. The fact that he's the only stack capable of ending your tournament life, treading lightly is probably the optimal play.
I agree with the general concensus that the min raise is fine (I also agree with Bennymacca's point of raising to 16,250-16,500). The best thing we can do is save chips on the cbet by making it 18-22k. More times than not, you take it down there. When you get CR in this scenario, muck and move on.
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