WPN, 1,000/2,000 blinds, 200 ante No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: 7,650 (3.8 bb)
BB: 92,042 (46 bb)
UTG+1: 28,300 (14.2 bb)
UTG+2: 39,058 (19.5 bb)
MP1: 42,944 (21.5 bb)
MP2: 101,743 (50.9 bb)
MP3: 29,850 (14.9 bb)
CO: 10,000 (5 bb)
Hero (BTN): 34,060 (17 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 2 A
5 folds, CO raises to 9,800 and is all-in, 3 folds
Results:
6,800 pot
CO mucked and won 6,800 (4,600 net)
I realize this is a profitable call. The SB has 4bb and the BB has 46bb. This isn’t profitable by much and we have a 46bb stack in the BB, I am wondering, at my stack size (17bb) should I be calling this or reshoving? I think if I were to play this, I would prefer a reshove because of fold equity. For that reason alone, I don’t know if calling is all around incorrect but that’s what I am leaning towards. Probably not incorrect, but if we are going to call and then fold to a 4-bet, I think it’s just better for us to reshove. I think this is either a reshove or a fold. I don’t hate folding because we probably won’t be in good shape if the BB comes along, but I don’t know that he will have a good enough hand to call our 17bb reshove often enough for that to be the best reason to fold either. I think in retrospect I like a reshove best here. What do you guys think?
September 3, 2018
I am going to answer this without ICMizer, just to show how I might play this life with no tools. I think it is either a shove or a fold. Calling the cutoff for a third of your stack and then folding to a big blind jam seems like it would be a disaster and pretty exploitable. Again, I need to know how the big blind has been playing. Is he just punishing the table with any two cards, or has he picked his spots well and perhaps gotten a big stack with a monster against second best?
If you were in the big blind and were last to act I think A2s would be a profitable call on the CO shove. But with big blind and his monster stack still to act, A2s does not seem like it would play well three way if you jam and get called by big blind and his monster stack (or if you call cutoff, BB jams and you call that jam).
Even if BB jams light you are either behind or not that far ahead of most anything he could have. Let’s say BB is a complete maniac and he shoves with 3d, 8h. You are still only a 63-37% favorite, and let’s be honest he isn’t jamming with 3d, 8h. So let’s put the big blind on something more reasonable like Kd, Jh. You are a 60-40% favorite. If big blind has 10Js, you are a 53.54-45.95% favorite. But do you really want to play for your stack with these scenarios making you a mild favorite with you having 17BBs? Maybe, maybe not. But these are the absolute best case scenarios. Not let’s put the big blind on something else reasonable like Ad, 9h. Now you win 28.39% of the time, lose 56.52% of the time and chop 15.09% of the time. Let’s say big blind has 5d, 5h. You only win 33.36% of the time.
I don’t love it. I think my gut would be to pick a better spot. I don’t know if that is GTO, but that’s my honest assessment of what I would do in real time without using ICMizer.
Again, it would be helpful to know what style big blind has been employing to better analyze this hand.
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