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June 18, 2012
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So as the title says I am on the FT bubble of a .55c 6max hyper. The guy who is UTG has been raising and taking the last 4 pots undisputed. The players in the SB and BB are playing pretty standard, on the tighter side I guess, but I only have 20 hands to base this on.
Firstly looking back I think this is a pretty marginal spot but my plan was to 3-bet fold to all with the exception of the BB. Also thinking the original raiser would be in a bit more of a shove/fold situation, hence the small 3 bet size.
My questions are:
Is this a bad spot to 3bet with a hand that doesnt flop very well (I know its a bit of a broad question)?
If a 3B is not horrible here, is the sizing ok?
On the flop should I be c-betting and getting it in on the turn? I was cautious because this smashes the original raisers range and as the SPR is about 1:2 I didnt want them to check shove on me.
Would I be better off shoving the river because despite what I was thinking in the moment if they are going to call the majority of my stack they will probably be calling all of it?
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
4 Players
$0.52+$0.03
Blinds 13k/25k 4
CO andregv22 709k
D Hero 653k
SB lenapena12 987k
BB 008slevin008 256k
4 63k Hero is BTN J 6
andregv22 raises to 50k, Hero raises to 116k, 2 folds, andregv22 calls 66k
2 295k 8 Q K
andregv22 checks, Hero checks
2 295k 7
andregv22 checks, Hero bets 126k, andregv22 calls 126k
2 547k 5
andregv22 checks, Hero bets 268k, andregv22 calls 268k
[divbox=#eeeeee]Final Pot 1,083k
May 1, 2016
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So, in my mind this is a very marginal spot. Depending on the pay jumps, this could definitely be an ICM mistake, as there is one person with less chips than you (and a very small stack) at your table, as well as possibly others in the tournament too (you didn’t mention what place you were in). However, all things considered, let’s go through with the analysis.
I’m assuming you’re 3betting as weak as J6s because you assume that UTG has a huge raising range (and I’m taking that from the fact you mentioned he opened and won the last four pots uncontested – not proof of his wide range, but in the moment I see where you’re coming from). Let’s even pretend he has a range of ATC. Against that range, your hand is barely +EV, you have 50.6% equity against a random hand when you have J6s.
But all we have to do is take the 10-20 crappiest hands out of his range (26o-210o, 34o-310o, etc) and your equity drops fast. Against the top 70% of hands your equity with J6s is only 44%.
But, fine. I understand your desire to 3bet an aggressive opponent, especially when in position, and it’s not the worst play I’ve heard of. But, if you are 3betting him because you assume his range to be SO wide, then I feel you HAVE to cbet this flop. The top 70% do not connect with this flop very much at all, and you have so much equity even when called, it seems ridiculous to attempt the steal 3bet preflop but not cbet this flop. In my experience, an opponent with his style (very loose and wide opening) is so loose that they will almost never give up preflop. However, once the flop comes out like this and Mr. Loosey is sitting on 78o (or any other of the number of hands in his range that miss this flop), then I think you get folds way more often than not.
Anyways, it may have been a dicey preflop spot. But IF you decide to make a play at him, you have to see it through in my mind.
Let me ask you his; would you have cbet a 4 7 Q rainbow flop? If you answer yes, then you have to understand that, in my mind, this rainbow flop hits his range much harder than the KQ8 double suited flop does. And if he is the type to call down with an *, you have even more equity as any jack will win you the hand as well.
June 2, 2013
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If you are playing to make a move you should cbet flop, you have to represent the strong hold that you want V to think you have.
I think you are too short to make a move, if this goes wrong the chances you will get 4th increases.
You also have to consider that you are not the one closing the action. When people 3bet from BTN is to play in position, but that is easier to do when you are deep.
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