April 14, 2016
Hi,
I did try and convert hand but can not work it out from PT4 see my other post so I will post the genrall spot I am not sure how to play
Guy has 21/8/0 stats over 63 hands but opens from mid position 23%. It is in the Sunday storm event bb250
He opens 600 MP
I 3b with AhKh 1600 on the button he calls (pot 3850)
Flop Kd4d5d
He leads 1925,
My thinking is if he had flopped a flush he would check most of the time as its pretty dry and the K would make me fld jj, qq potentially well maybe I would call one but. I would raise if checked to most the time so most likely he check call a made flush. I think most likely the donk bet here is a scared k, scared of dimonds, a flush draw or some aj hand making a stab. Dont see him calling a 3b this big with 44 or 55 so ruled that out and aa or kk would shove pre most of the time.
As flush draws are there i just shove thinking if he has A of dimonds he might call anyway AdJ, AdQ, AdT, also maybe with KdQ, KdJ with a dimond maybe call so want to price them max esp as so many turns seem bad for me.
On reflection I do not see him calling the 3b so wide maybe 77+, AJ+, ATs+, KQ, KJs, and 4b AA,KK against a typical player i think my line is not too bad as a lot of this that has a diamond with it which may lead and when they hit the flush on the flp they would check. against him over a small sample mind he had never dk bet and only cb once so think this narrows him to made hand. Maybe something like QQ, AK, KQ, JdJ, TdT, I block ak so still think the lead consist more or what i beat so is the shove good?
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