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$55 (888) Monsoon ITM vs. 2 regs for near CL pot, TURN decision

chip chimp71

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September 15, 2012

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March 25, 2016 - 5:33 pm

Just like the title says: $55 (888) Monsoon ITM vs. 2 regs for near CL pot, TURN decision???

Hand History

My thoughts leading up to turn:

PF, I would rather flat IP than raise an UTG+1 open and there are 2 shovable stacks behind us. This allows to see a cheap flop or fold to shoves as we are getting amazing odds with a nice speculative hand JThh. 12.9K in middle heading to flop and I am the effective stack with 38.6K behind. OR reg CBs 6.9, other reg flats… We have gut shot+bdfd+position. We could easily up against diamond flush draws, Qx, sets (888 or QQQ, rare but also 222), over pair, over cards, Q8 and some combos of exactly JT with a diamond. I think calling is best as I will never get anything better to fold, and it would look too much like a bluff if we rip.

Turn doesn’t improve them, but gives us 13 outs vs. the strongest part of their ranges. OR effectively puts me all in, the stubborn reg calls giving us 2.9:1 on the call and chance for early CL. These are 2 decent regs… Can we ever find a fold here? If so, what is the reasoning. Is this a “f**k it, got to collect chips to win” situation?

Thoughts on the hand?

florianm1

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March 26, 2016 - 6:48 am

i ship this pre.

have “tons” of hands and know they are too loose. and JTs performs great vs their calling range.

turn is close. i can see ep overplaying an fd here often bc of his stats. think given the odds we should be able to call profitable vs their range