Thanks for the feedback GM.  I agree with the range you put villain on and I did wind up making the call.  I'll post the hand shortly

pfmg

Play seems standard imo. We are obv never ever folding this river bet and I play it exactly the same way. I'm assuming villain got there with A10 or we lost the min to a set.

I agree with a lot of what you said, including all your ranges. Keep in mind there is plenty of hands that u listed that he loses to as well when he bets the river. For it to be not correct a correct call, you would have to assume vilain was never bluffing, and we know thats not true. How likely would it be for a very compitent player to bet riv to make you fold your hand?  like with his hand say kq. Or hands like qj or heck even AK..(thinking) “hmm this guys got aj or aq,he's trying to get to showdow sure he bets any 2pr on turn, or any kind my kq or jq is good here” let me put out this value bet” “Hes' never checking A10,QQ or even KQ on the river”.. exactly very possible. Plenty…its a call. I've seen this same exact type of play A LOT, ecspecailly with a hand like our hand or lesser hand with the jq u posted. Why not? Should we not put pressure on our oppoenent in position? Could we actually get our oppenent to fold the best hand using our position? Of course we could. I've seen more riciculous plays in attepmt to take down the pot.  This could easily be this..

Just like to remind you that villain in hand is a nit (16/11 is a nit).

Villain is opening EP so he is bigger nit.

Villain is opening pre ante so even bigger nit.

So if he is “using position” to make us fold, please state bluff combos.

Tiny_Molester said:

Just like to remind you that villain in hand is a nit (16/11 is a nit).

Villain is opening EP so he is bigger nit.

Villain is opening pre ante so even bigger nit.

So if he is “using position” to make us fold, please state bluff combos.

He raises aq pre..we chk n call his cbet. he now misses turn, slows down and pot controls and checks behind. its a blank. the river then hits his queen WE STILL check, and he now puts us on 1. AJ maybe, 2. maybe 7s-10s..his thinking :” let me layout value now to extract from these types of hands” surely he bets any kq, kj, and is almost never, ever checking the nutz or 2nd n third. U see i'm not saying he has to be definitely trying to steal the pot with a bluff, but he could easily be betting for value on simple 2pr hands, or even a hand like aq, or ak, that he actually thinks is good, or the fact that we just can't call his nice size bet with one pair, or possiblye 2pr. I think this deep when i play. It sounds to me like u do too. So this all im saying..GLGL Oh and one other thing, yes he's a 16/11 but he could easily be a TAG fully capable thinking player, and remember he checked turn. He doesnt HAVE to have nutz here. He would more then likely make this bet with our holdings NO?

0lespaul3 said:

Tiny_Molester said:

Just like to remind you that villain in hand is a nit (16/11 is a nit).

Villain is opening EP so he is bigger nit.

Villain is opening pre ante so even bigger nit.

So if he is “using position” to make us fold, please state bluff combos.

He raises aq pre..we chk n call his cbet. he now misses turn, slows down and pot controls and checks behind. its a blank. the river then hits his queen WE STILL check, and he now puts us on 1. AJ maybe, 2. maybe 7s-10s..his thinking :” let me layout value now to extract from these types of hands” surely he bets any kq, kj, and is almost never, ever checking the nutz or 2nd n third. U see i’m not saying he has to be definitely trying to steal the pot with a bluff, but he could easily be betting for value on simple 2pr hands, or even a hand like aq, or ak, that he actually thinks is good, or the fact that we just can’t call his nice size bet with one pair, or possiblye 2pr. I think this deep when i play. It sounds to me like u do too. So this all im saying..GLGL Oh and one other thing, yes he’s a 16/11 but he could easily be a TAG fully capable thinking player, and remember he checked turn. He doesnt HAVE to have nutz here. He would more then likely make this bet with our holdings NO?

Sure villain can go for a thin value bet with AQ, however look at the river bet sizing. Very polarising indeed. The fact that villiain has so few bluff combos given his nitbox range pre means that this river is quite marginal once we take the check line.

The really important thing to get from this hand I think is the PF leak of flatting (both 3betting and folding are far superior plays) and the fact that you should be leading river like 100% because there just aren’t enough bluff combos in his range but plenty of showdown combos which he will check behind but pay a bet.

Great great discussion in this one. Tiny and lespaul both made great points. I am putting out a value/blocker on this river almost always here unless I thought he was capable of bluffing, otherwise we lose value when he just checks behind. Definitely folding if he comes over the top for reasons stated from you guys.

As played, I think Tiny hit the nail on the head with his analysis. One thing I wanted to add that was briefly mentioned is his bet size on the river. Close to pot on river is the new value bet, it used to be the obvious bluff and everyone figured that out and turned it into the bluff looking value bet. So I think it is an obvious bet tell, people are still using it because it still works. Yes it is polarized and can be a bluff sometimes but given villian is a competent nit, there are alarm bells going off.

There is a lot to be said for folding pre given our info and it being preante.

Huckleberry said:

i fold this preflop everytime – no matter how much the buy-in was, we are oop, effective stacks are awkward and we are up vs. a nit – although he doesn’t seem to be that nitty, if he’s opening ATo from earlyish position preante – and you mentioned you are planning to float most flops and outplay him on later streets. seems to be a lil too confident for my taste.

as played i probably put out a bet on the river around 800-900, folding to a shove – if I check I don’t see myself folding and make the call hoping to be good.

Here’s why i disagree. I’ve talked a few times about taking some chances when times present themselves in order to win a tourney..NOT MIN CASH IT . I think this is a perfect example of it. Blinds are going up we are up to 75/150..we haven’t had a chance to chip up, and we have a solid great flopping hand in the sb. By making the call we are going to go from 28 to 26bbs..big deal!!..these are nut flush/royal flush hand,2pr,strts..we’re just gonna muck them?lol..at this stage?? its getting ready to be all or nothing time isnt it? . Why ever dump these cards? Ecspecially with chips already in. Its not like he 4-5xed it..to have a chance to be at 56bbs if we flop well? at this stage this a call everytime imo. Will we lose sometimes? Sure. Will we take down a small pot when we flop a 4flush?..sure..will we stack of sometimes when we flop 2p or flop nut straights against the aa? Absofrickenlutely!!!!!! Play THIS HAND!

We did this to ourselves with our weak line.  With the call pre, what are you hoping to hit? Nut flush? 2 pair?  Trips? Straight?  If you are not going to bet top pair when hit, drop it pre.  When the K drops, bet, you hit your hand.  His 375 bet is a standard C-bet, but you knew he was going to do this given your stats, raise it up. If he is such a nit, he folds to your donk bet or your raise of his C-Bet.  This is where you take advantage of his nitty/C-bettin ways.  Don't be scared of a nit, abuse him.

When we check on the turn too, he gets a free card.  Then he hits his gutter ball, because we allowed him to hang around.  A more aggressive approach wins this hand every time on the flop &/or turn.