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$55 25k GTD 15 players left BTN vs BB

pokkerheller

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October 12, 2015 - 10:48 pm

No Limit Hold’em Tournament T3,500/T7,000
Buy-in: $50 + $5 – Table #31 9 Max
888 Poker
8 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com – Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

Stacks:
UTG – UTG (T121,729)
UTG+1 – UTG+1 (T319,647)
MP – MP (T141,814)
MP2 – MP2 (T133,988)
CO – CO (T331,042)
BTN – BTN (T262,584)
SB – SB (T167,470)
BB – Hero (T104,695)

Preflop: (T17,500, 8 players) Hero is BB with 6♠ Q♠
5 folds, BTN raises to T14,875, 1 fold, Hero calls T7,000, Uncalled bet of T875 returned to BTN

Flop: T♦ 4♣ 6♣ (T38,500, 2 players – BTN: T247,709, Hero: T89,820)
Hero checks, BTN bets T14,889, Hero calls T14,889

Turn: A♥ (T68,278, 2 players – BTN: T232,820, Hero: T74,931)
Hero checks, BTN bets T27,139, Hero????

I have about 20 hands on villain. i have seen him steal from SB 2 times, open UTG fold to my 14bb reshove one time, make a 2x 3b in BB vs an MP min open and opened from hijack on time.

I have re shoved his utg open once like i mentioned, defended my BB to a utg+1 open and folded to a c-bet on a 89cQs flop and 3b shoved 11,5BB when sb tried to steal with a min raise.

Thats the info we have on each other at the moment. So i suspect he is a LAG and that we are dealing with a wide range here. I am thinking thinking the ace is a great card for him to 2 barrel as he has all the aces and we probably have none as most players will 3b shove all aces pre(???) So given that info can we 2b all in on this turn? What does he fold?

We need to be right here 43% of the time (correct me if im wrong please cause im not sure) and even when we`re not we still have around 12% to suck out and win a 220k pot.

On sharscope he is a winning player at 4$ but not much volume. There is 15 plrs left and 6,5k on top.

Thoughts?

joelshitshow

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October 13, 2015 - 1:59 pm

What do people think about folding pre? Or, as played, check-shoving the flop?

I like the research you’ve done on V. I wonder whether 20 hands enough of a sample to drive decisions for your tournament life.

SSSMforlife

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October 13, 2015 - 2:17 pm

I like your thinking Joel. I would lean towards a fold pre unless the villain is super spewy and bad. I am check-jamming the flop for sure because there are so many bad turn cards for us and theyre going to fold a bunch and also call us off with draws. As played I fold the turn – it’s a barrel card for villain, but we have to commit to much of our stack and we’re going to have to fold the river if he bets again.

pokkerheller

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October 13, 2015 - 5:40 pm

I`m definitely almost always defending here with such a sick price, 18% or something? Yeah i definitely should C/jam the flop.
As played though do we ever jam here after he has bet the turn? I dont see calling as an option Imo. What is he folding if we rip it in here?

Foucault

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October 13, 2015 - 8:01 pm

I think folding pre is out of the question. We don’t need V to be spewy at all, in fact even if he’s quite good I would call. Even if V is only opening 50% (I’d take the over), Hero has 43% equity and needs less than 20%. My guess is that check-shoving any pair and check-folding otherwise would make calling profitable, let alone if H plays a bit more intelligently.

That said, I do think shoving is much better than calling on flop. As played, turn is a clear fold. Yes, V could easily be bluffing, but as OP says, this is simply a really good card for him and there’s nothing we can do about the fact that he could easily be bluffing because also easily have H drawing to 12% or less.

jjpregler

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October 13, 2015 - 9:51 pm

I would probably shove preflop in this spot. If the villain raises 40% (which is probably low for this LAG) and calls off top 15%:

(62.5% * t32,375) + 37.5%[(t226,890 * 33.6%) – t104,695] = t9562 cEV

pokkerheller

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October 14, 2015 - 10:32 am

Ahh ok dammit i did jam, he tanked a bit and folded. Had a gut feeling and felt like a genious. A genious would have C/jammed the flop though 🙂

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