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August 31, 2013
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Hi,
We are at the final table of a 50€ MTT (9 left) since about 15 hands. I'm pretty short (8/9), I have been reshoving 2 times at the final table and won the pot without showdown. This is the first hand I open raise.
About vilain, he is a total psycho, running 59/44/20, 8.7 agg factor over 75 hands. He was at my table earlier and was opening everything (I noticed he had open 84 UTG). I think he views me as a pretty tight player. 6 hands earlier he 3bet/fold (with the same sizing of 45K) a 20BB stack in MP vs MP.
First, are you 4bet shoving that against him knowing we are only 18BB deep? (If I shove he will have 36% pot odds)
Second, if he had just shoved , would you have called? (it was my plan but with ICM maybe it's pretty bad)
Winamax No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t5000.00/t10000.00/t1250.00 Blinds – 9 players – View hand 2314115
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
UTG+2: t490627.00 49.06 BBs
Hero (MP1): t183095.00 18.31 BBs
MP2: t114804.00 11.48 BBs
CO: t321949.00 32.19 BBs
BTN: t187428.00 18.74 BBs
SB: t234462.00 23.45 BBs
BB: t302005.00 30.20 BBs –> 59/44/20, 8.7 agg factor over 75 hands
UTG: t300588.00 30.06 BBs
UTG+1: t225042.00 22.50 BBs
Pre Flop: (t26250) Hero is MP1 with K
Q
3 folds, Hero raises to t20000, 4 folds, BB raises to t45000, Hero ????
ty ^^
June 8, 2012
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given the info…..lets stuff, expecting him to fold enuff + call with flips and even QJs/KJs lol. ICM might say its a fold with a shorty but is one pay jump that significant to you?
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
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What are the payouts?
It's pretty hard to fold here given reads. Running that absurdly aggro, surely there's some nonzero frequency of pure button clicking where he'll fold to a 4bet (indeed, you've already seen him do this once). You also block his value range somewhat. I think I just stuff it in against this guy.
August 31, 2013
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shutEMdown said:
ICM might say its a fold with a shorty but is one pay jump that significant to you?
No, it was a small tourney, I was essentially playing for top 3!
I don't remember all the payout but the top 3 was something like that:
1rst: 1.5K€
2nd: 950€
3rd: 650€
???
8th: 189€
9th: 129€
EDIT: I looked on sharkscope, here are the real payouts:
1rst: 1513
2nd: 956
3rd: 690
4th: 544
5th: 398
6th: 292
7th: 199
8th: 159€
9th: 129€
June 8, 2012
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Yeah dude given info and the payouts…. I stuff it.
July 3, 2010
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Well those stats are probably way skewed by the fact that they may have been collected on the FT bubble.
Now at the FT the first few orbits usually play pretty ABC in most tournaments.
But since he already did 3b/f at the FT it makes our hand a stuff. He have some really good blockers obviously and even if he calls with AJ we're not really in terrible shape. Our jam could make him fold some pairs – maybe not many, but some. His calling off range should be pretty snug since he'd fall to 8/9 if he lost the hand.
August 31, 2013
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FkCoolers said:
Well those stats are probably way skewed by the fact that they may have been collected on the FT bubble.
No it was collected earlier in middle game. I wasn't on his table during the FTB. The problem I have with this hand is my stack size. I don't have a lot of FE and I don't know if his capable of 3bet/folding 18BB deep. I have the impression that he is more likely to defend than 3bet/fold but as I already saw him 3bet/fold once against a 20BB stack i don't know…
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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I generally fold here, KQ is nice when you have more FE, but here its probably marginal at best. He just has too much Ax, and not many hadns we are actualyl ahead of, although a decent amount of hands we are flipping against.
If the fiel was tough though, I might take this spot, knowing how bad peolpe play these stacks though(stacks becing small to medium) I think there is a lot of value in just being in and not trying to hero 4 bet.
Suited I probably go with it, because why not.
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June 11, 2012
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i normally like to r/f in this spot with 18BB and the blockers
but in this general case with the maniac we could also think of open shove pre here as we do not want to let him pressure on us with 3bets
still with shoving we allow everyone to play perfect vs us.
i think i r/4b here 88+,ATs+,AJo+,KQs
i shove 22-77,A2-A5s, A8s,A9s,ATo,KQo
what do you guys think about these ranges?
have not done any math just a brain fart
cheers
December 28, 2012
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CCuster 911 said:
I generally fold here, KQ is nice when you have more FE, but here its probably marginal at best. He just has too much Ax, and not many hadns we are actualyl ahead of, although a decent amount of hands we are flipping against.
If the fiel was tough though, I might take this spot, knowing how bad peolpe play these stacks though(stacks becing small to medium) I think there is a lot of value in just being in and not trying to hero 4 bet.
Suited I probably go with it, because why not.
Really? This guy is running 59/44/20 and has already 3bet/folded vs a 20BB open. Hero is playing for top 3 and rightly so. Get it in!
May 6, 2013
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If we shove villain needs to be good 38,55% of the time.
If we raise lets say as nitty as 12,7% from MP1(and would shove to a 3b) meaning QJo+,QJs+, 55+ and he is 3b as wide as 20%(which i doubt he is) then he could snapcall us all day long.
I fold.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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Gsmyth5 said:
CCuster 911 said:
I generally fold here, KQ is nice when you have more FE, but here its probably marginal at best. He just has too much Ax, and not many hadns we are actualyl ahead of, although a decent amount of hands we are flipping against.
If the fiel was tough though, I might take this spot, knowing how bad peolpe play these stacks though(stacks becing small to medium) I think there is a lot of value in just being in and not trying to hero 4 bet.
Suited I probably go with it, because why not.
Really? This guy is running 59/44/20 and has already 3bet/folded vs a 20BB open. Hero is playing for top 3 and rightly so. Get it in!
20 is not all that absurd of a 3 bet, relativeto how active he is in opening. A lot of great playes in soft fields will run about 59/44/20 and against their 3 ebt ranges we are not in great shape with KQo.
If he calls 100% here with an aggro 3 betting range I am pretty sure(dont quote me havent did the ICM both my comps bit the dust within a couple weeks fml) we are bleeding money.
The value here comes when he 3b/folds. I just dont see that happening all that much
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December 28, 2012
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If anyone smarter than me could run the maths I would be most indebted! 🙂
This is interesting – to me, instictively, I thought get it in and feel happy about it. If this is flawed then it's a leak I need to plug for sure!
December 28, 2012
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I believe he will 3bet/fold a decent amount of the time, fwiw.
He's 3betting 20%; he's already 3bet/folded 20BBs effecitve; presumably he knows he can 3bet light and leverage our stack and we have ICM to consider etc.
If we give him a 20% 3betting range, what range does he call our 4bet stuff with? I would think he has a 3bet/fold range here.
September 29, 2012
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There is t81,250 in the pot. We have t161,845 keft in our stack to shove. When we shove the BB has to call off t136,845 to win 243,095. So we have very little fold equity except against his worst hands. He has a 20% 3 bet range, but that is an overall 3 bet where he may have possibly had a small run of cards, 3 bet a late position LAG often or other factors.
In his range he probably flats 88 – 22, and some mediocre broadway hands plus AJs, ATs, AQ and AJ hands. that leaves his 3 bets with hands like AQs+, AK, 99+, and his bluff hands Ax, suited connectors and suited one gapped connectors. With the A blockers he's probably calling off with all of his Ax hands and maybe folding the lower suited connectors if he is finding a fold here. so he's only folding like 10% of the time and we are only 40% against the rest of his range.
t81,250 * 10% + 90%([t379,940 * 40%] – t161,845) = -757
If he calls off the whole range, we only have 43% equity and our expected value is:
[t379,940 * 43%] – t161,845 = t1529
So if he never folds, we have a marginal postive expectation, but that fact that he's shown a willingness to already fold the weakest part of his range makes a shove even harder to show a profit here.
December 28, 2012
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jjpregler said:
There is t81,250 in the pot. We have t161,845 keft in our stack to shove. When we shove the BB has to call off t136,845 to win 243,095. So we have very little fold equity except against his worst hands. He has a 20% 3 bet range, but that is an overall 3 bet where he may have possibly had a small run of cards, 3 bet a late position LAG often or other factors.
In his range he probably flats 88 – 22, and some mediocre broadway hands plus AJs, ATs, AQ and AJ hands. that leaves his 3 bets with hands like AQs+, AK, 99+, and his bluff hands Ax, suited connectors and suited one gapped connectors. With the A blockers he's probably calling off with all of his Ax hands and maybe folding the lower suited connectors if he is finding a fold here. so he's only folding like 10% of the time and we are only 40% against the rest of his range.
t81,250 * 10% + 90%([t379,940 * 40%] – t161,845) = -757
If he calls off the whole range, we only have 43% equity and our expected value is:
[t379,940 * 43%] – t161,845 = t1529
So if he never folds, we have a marginal postive expectation, but that fact that he's shown a willingness to already fold the weakest part of his range makes a shove even harder to show a profit here.
Thanks for this!
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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jjpregler said:
There is t81,250 in the pot. We have t161,845 keft in our stack to shove. When we shove the BB has to call off t136,845 to win 243,095. So we have very little fold equity except against his worst hands. He has a 20% 3 bet range, but that is an overall 3 bet where he may have possibly had a small run of cards, 3 bet a late position LAG often or other factors.
In his range he probably flats 88 – 22, and some mediocre broadway hands plus AJs, ATs, AQ and AJ hands. that leaves his 3 bets with hands like AQs+, AK, 99+, and his bluff hands Ax, suited connectors and suited one gapped connectors. With the A blockers he's probably calling off with all of his Ax hands and maybe folding the lower suited connectors if he is finding a fold here. so he's only folding like 10% of the time and we are only 40% against the rest of his range.
t81,250 * 10% + 90%([t379,940 * 40%] – t161,845) = -757
If he calls off the whole range, we only have 43% equity and our expected value is:
[t379,940 * 43%] – t161,845 = t1529
So if he never folds, we have a marginal postive expectation, but that fact that he's shown a willingness to already fold the weakest part of his range makes a shove even harder to show a profit here.
This appears to be a purely chip calculation, am I right in thinking this? ICm will only make things worse(as ICm is spread ver the table while chips are spread amongst two people).
Anyways, this a good calculation. Thanks.
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September 29, 2012
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Yes, that was a cEV calculation. I didn't think we needed ICM if we can show a negative cEV evaluation, then ICM is always worse.
But to take ICM factor into account our ICM at the beginning of this hand is 454.901. If we get all in and lose our ICM is 129 and if we get it all in and win our ICM increases to 676.698. Our equity increases 48% when we win and we lose 72% equity when we lose the ICM factor 1.5:1, which means the chips we lose have 1.5 times the value as the chips we win. so to take that into account we can adjust the above formula by multiplying the amount of chips we wager by 1.5, the new ICM adjusted formula would read:
t81,250 * 10% + 90%([t379,940 * 40%] – 242768) = -73587.8
August 31, 2013
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Ty guys for answers!
Really interisting to have your thoughts on this hand. Ty for the math too, really nice ^^
I obviously shove, essentially because I saw him raise fold against a 20BB stack and because of his maniac style. He snap called me with AA and I obv busted.
Had the impression to have spew my touney (the TF was really soft). So yes I think it's a fold, especially with the math you did. One other thing who makes me think it's a fold is that he is way more likely to defend his blind by calling than 3betting imo.
I don't mentionned it because I didn't know it during the hand but I sharkscoped villain, he is a winning player but not a really good player imo, he breaks even nearly 5K games and only have 3 or 4 big win
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I'd be more likely to either shove pre or even open-fold pre (ugh, don't like the sound of that) due to ICM, to be honest. With an 11bb stack at the table it's not great for us to get it in here even if he does fold fairly often, so I would fold to the 3bet.
I don't have any math to back it up since ICM math is so complex and it's hard to specifically compare shoving to raise/call or raise/fold, but I would not be too surprised if it's optimal to be openshoving or openfolding our entire range here with 18bb. Perhaps if it's a table full of pretty bad players we can still be raise/calling KK+ since we don't need to balance at all, but I would imagine there are some scenarios here where we could open TT+ or AK, snap off a shove from a bigger stack, and have it turn out to be a -$EV play despite being wildly +cEV.
Conversely, if we were the shortest stack and the two other <20bb stacks both had say, 30bb, this would probably be a much more comfortable 4bet shove to make, and we would never be folding TT or AK pre with 18bb. That said, we would still need to have some kind of an idea of whether the 'maniac' was stack size aware – many guys are pretty crazy but still aren't ever 3bet/folding at 18bb effective.
August 8, 2013
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Why is no one advocating flatting? There's 90k in the pot, its 25k to just call. You have a super aggressive player. You are flipping at best. Flat, try to hit a flop, K,Q, JT, something and then check shove. I don't understand why we think 4bet shoving the flop against an aggro player is good here unless we like variance. Plus his raise sizing is pretty small, 2.5x, definitely in the range of baiting a 4bet, and losing the minimum if his possible air gets shoved on. Shoving here to win 4.5bb just seems a bit crazy with KQo.
TPE Pro
August 6, 2013
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I would be folding pre, given that there is few reshoving stacks which when we open and if they shove that really sucks, because there are usually really strong against us. If the blind would be going up in the next 1-2 minutes I would taking this spot and would choose to open-shove with this hand.
As played I still am folding, it looks quite strong, seems like he is inducing.
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August 8, 2013
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Merfinis said:
I would be folding pre, given that there is few reshoving stacks which when we open and if they shove that really sucks, because there are usually really strong against us. If the blind would be going up in the next 1-2 minutes I would taking this spot and would choose to open-shove with this hand.
As played I still am folding, it looks quite strong, seems like he is inducing.
How are you folding KQo here for 2.5BB? You are getting more than 3.5:1 on the call. I can understand that you have 16.5BB now, but you are going to have 14 if you just flat and there's really no difference between the stack sizes, as stated he is very aggressive so I think he's probably going to have lots of small/med pairs, suited connectors, Ax etc in his range where we aren't a huge dog going to the flop.
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