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$500 GTD turbo , shove river with ace high?
folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
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October 7, 2015 - 2:57 pm
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#Game No : 727490368
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 727490368 *****
$100/$200 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***
Tournament #73032118 $1.80 + $0.20 – Table #16 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: Manb00bz ( $18,267 )
Seat 2: Two.DV ( $4,280 )
Seat 3: sauriak777 ( $3,416 )
Seat 4: london_ace ( $5,567 )
Seat 5: dbl_gutter ( $5,176 )
Seat 6: Plancton69 ( $3,080 )
Seat 7: 1TimeBaby ( $4,960 )
Seat 10: 19Eintr67 ( $2,070 )
1TimeBaby posts ante [$25]
19Eintr67 posts ante [$25]
Manb00bz posts ante [$25]
sauriak777 posts ante [$25]
london_ace posts ante [$25]
dbl_gutter posts ante [$25]
Plancton69 posts ante [$25]
Two.DV posts ante [$25]
Manb00bz posts small blind [$100]
Two.DV posts big blind [$200]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ Ts, As ]
sauriak777 folds
london_ace raises [$400]
dbl_gutter folds
Plancton69 folds
1TimeBaby folds
19Eintr67 folds
Manb00bz folds
Two.DV calls [$200]
** Dealing flop ** [ 9heart, 5club, Jdiamond ] $1,100
Two.DV checks
london_ace bets [$350]
Two.DV calls [$350]
** Dealing turn ** [ 4heart ]  $1,800
Two.DV checks
london_ace checks
** Dealing river ** [ 7spade]  $1,800
Two.DV checks
london_ace bets [$4,792]
Two.DV calls [$3,505]

 

hey

 

no reads

 

my flop c-bet was just below 1/3 pot , that was a mistake by me, should have made it $500 or so. thoughts on shoving river? I mean when v checks twice they really are telling me they dont have Jx or any sort of strong hand, there range seems marginal hands like 9x 5x KT maybe 78s for a gutshot. 

 

we could bet small around 1/3 to 1/2 pot but i think if v has 9x they’ll likely call with those , if i had a very strong hand on the river i’d probably shove as well even so i think their range is marginal , as i think players on the low stakes are calling to often with their marginal hands. Tbh though its really hard to represent much , unlikely we have monsters since we checked back turn and its tough to represent the straight otr since its unlikely we are opening up T8s from EP. 

 

looking back at this hand , we could bet 1/2 pot with our bluff range and our value hands since we think v range is marginal , v has like just over $3,500 behind and the pot is $1,800. 

thoughts?

 

cheers.

vince-wheeler
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October 7, 2015 - 5:58 pm
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I don’t think there’s much wrong with the size of the flop bet, maybe a bit larger depending on table dynamics.  I think the real problem is that if you’re going to try to make a move you need to barrel the turn.  Checking the turn gives up the hand imo.  If you think he’s weak I am definitely barreling here. The 1/3 pot on flop looks pretty strong, you could be repping AJ, 55, 99, J9, or JJ.  None of those big hands are checking back the turn so your river shove doesn’t make much sense unless you decided to give up on the turn with T8 or 86 and binked the 7.  I’d barrel turn folding to a c/r and almost certainly give up on the river if he c/c again.

Foucault

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October 8, 2015 - 8:36 am
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fapy,

Just because you’re sure your opponent is capped doesnt’ mean you can shove and take the pot any time you want. People are allowed to call with less than top pair, and they often do when they know they are capped. How wide is your value range here? Of all the air you could have after taking this line, what makes this hand good for shoving as opposed to some other airball? If you are just shoving all of your air because you think he doesn’t have a Jack, he’s going to make a lot of money looking you up with any pair.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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October 8, 2015 - 6:33 pm
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I’m not sure how wide my value range is here ,  I guess it would be something like 55/99/JJ/J9 JQ/KJ/AJ i’m not sure if i’m shoving JT/J8 and also not sure about A9,  might be rather thin with A9 or K9s?  however v may call with weaker 9x which is in their range and we do beat that.

This is not a good hand to shove river i agree.

theginger45

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October 9, 2015 - 12:35 am
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folding_aces_pre_yo said
I’m not sure how wide my value range is here ,  I guess it would be something like 55/99/JJ/J9 JQ/KJ/AJ i’m not sure if i’m shoving JT/J8 and also not sure about A9,  might be rather thin with A9 or K9s?  however v may call with weaker 9x which is in their range and we do beat that.

This is not a good hand to shove river i agree.

Being 100% honest with yourself, are JJ/99/55 really in your range for making this play? I doubt it. There’s no real reason you would check back turn with those hands. I also doubt you’re checking AJ on the turn, or an overpair, and I don’t think doing it with A9 or K9 would be much good at all since when we have those hands we block the 9x hands villain is going to have to call us with to make the play better. Similarly, doing this with JT or J8 requires villain calling with a lot of 9x to make up for the better Jx we get called by.

I wouldn’t be too shocked if the reality of this spot is that you simply don’t have any value hands in your range. I know you said you’d probably shove if you had a very strong hand, but a) I don’t think you would have bet that sizing on flop or checked turn with any strong hands, and b) if you did, your assertion that villain most likely has a very weak range would make it a bad play! You have a reasonable amount of showdown value with AT here, so I imagine the best play is just to check behind.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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October 9, 2015 - 10:01 pm
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with those strong hands JJ/99/55 , i’d bet around $450-$550 , pot would be then $2200 ott V has $3330 behind so i may over shove turn or bet flop bet turn and shove river line? is their much of a difference on how we get our money in here? reason being is if i had a hand like say KT yeah , i’d want to shove turn to get as much fold equity as i can, rather then bet flop bet turn and shove river. Stacks are shallow here we are 21bb effective , if we were deeper i’d prefer the triple barrel. I must say though if v calls turn when we bet KT , its very unlikely they have Jx since they would of probably would have c/s turn,  so what im trying to say is that maybe we can bet flop and turn with our bluff range (profitably) and then shove river as v will likely fold the weak part of their range otr. 

indeed when we shove river with our value hands we are not very likely to be called since v range is weak but players at these stakes they tend to call often with their medium strength hands or even weak hands. I’d say betting 1/3 of the pot here with your monsters will be fine since you think v does not have much to call with so that would mean with your bluff range you’d have to make it around that 1/3 of the pot as well. It’s just that with weaker players they don’t fold that so wouldn’t you much prefer  shoving with both your value and bluff range in this spot?  even so v range is weak.

 

while you need to balance most aspects of your poker game most players will rarely see you make a river bet because most hands are over well before the river because of this balancing your bet sizing isn’t that important against weaker players. These players are weak so maybe i should not balance in this spot , i should probably just bet 1/3 of the pot with my value range and shove with my bluff range. It’ don’t really matter does it?

 

You’re also right that i’m not checking back AJ or an over pair. I may check back JT/J8s OTT and if v checks river , what would you do ? personally i’d probably check behind Ingame and take the SDV with JT/J8s , but i reckon shoving cant be terrible as a big chunk of their range consist of very weak hands which includes 9x and and maybe even weaker Jx then J8..

 

the question is how often is v calling with a hand you are ahead of? if its more then 50% of the time then its profitable. It’s just that making these thin value bets/shoves in tournies make increase variance , so maybe we should shy away from it. If we were going to shy away from it we’d be losing money though , so i guess we shouldn’t lol.

GunnJD
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October 11, 2015 - 3:19 am
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Haven’t read subsequent posts in detail, but as you mention T8 and 68 are rarely if ever in your opening range pre.

I’d say they smack a big blind’s range pretty hard though, at least T8.

So by the river, villain has all the nut combos, and hero’s range looks like a weak pair or Ace high. May not be a terrible spot to check the nuts and hope hero turns his small pairs or ace high into a bluff. embarassed

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