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5 handed (in 6 max MTT) 32BB deep on button with 33 and 2 shove stacks in blinds

Al29

Midstakes Master

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February 18, 2013

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February 15, 2015 - 5:21 am

Hi – the following hand came up the other day on a $5 6-max tourney on iPoker last week – I have been trying to work out the math to see which option is optimal out of fold/raise-fold/raise-call/shove – would appreciate your thoughts and any comments if I have made any significantly glaring errors with my calculations.

I have omitted the option of limping as this is hard to calculate without knowing flop textures/actions etc – is it safe to assume limping with 33 here is less optimal than options above as it does not flop well enough when we are this shallow, assuming we don't get shoved on which we will a fair amount of the time?

Also, regardless of what the optimal play is should we consider including 33 in our raise/fold range as balance with the good hands we want to raise/call with, or should we be doing this (raise/folding) with other hands in our range instead?

Calcs

Folding = 3868 chips

Raise/folding= 3905 chips (SB shoves 11%, BB shoves 23%, BB calls 4.7% when SB shoves)

2 folds-> 0.66*(3868+180)

Either or both shove-> 0.34*(3868-240)

Shoving = 3997 chips (SB calls 8%, BB calls 11% & overcalls 3.5% when SB calls)

2 folds-> (0.92*0.89)*(3868+180)

2 calls-> ((8/100)*(3.5/100)*(((3868+1864+1810)*(22.6/100))+((3868-1804)*(77.4/100))))

1 call -> ((0.08)*(((3868+180+1804)*0.387)+((3868-1804)*0.613)))+((0.11)*(((3868+180+1690)*0.388)+((3868-1690)*0.612)))

Raise/calling= 4095 chips (SB shoves 11%, BB shoves 23%, BB calls 4.7% when SB shoves)

2 shoves (I fold when both shove) -> (0.14*0.047)*(3868-240)

1 shove-> ((0.14)*(((3868+180+1804)*0.419)+((3868-1804)*0.581)))+((0.23)*(((3868+180+1690)*0.473)+((3868-1690)*0.527)))

2 folds-> 0.66*(3868+180)

The hand

Note – I 3x PFR in this example, but my calcs above are based on me only 2x PFR which I think is preferable due to stack sizes of myself and remaining players in the pot.

iPoker – €4.55+€0.45|<> NL – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: 2,255.00
CO: 5,569.00
Hero (BTN): 3,868.00
SB: 1,864.00
BB: 1,810.00

SB posts SB 60.00, BB posts BB 120.00

Pre Flop: (180.00) Hero has 3 heart 3 club

fold, fold, [color=red]Hero raises to 360.00[/color], fold, [color=red]BB raises to 1,810.00 and is all-in[/color], Hero calls 1,450.00

Flop: (3680.00, 2 players) J club 4 club 4 heart

Turn: (3680.00, 2 players) A diamond

River: (3680.00, 2 players) 9 spade

[spoil]Hero mucks 3 heart 3 club (Two Pair, Fours and Threes) (Pre 53%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
BB shows A spade J diamond (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks) (Pre 47%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
BB wins 3,680.00
[/spoil]

jacobsharktank

Florida

Playing The Prelims

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February 16, 2015 - 1:20 pm

If the ev's of the three decisions are truly that close, then I prefer the raise/fold line. It's about variance in my mind there. Another bit of math you can do after you understand all of this (it seems like you do), is your bustout rate. It feels like it's marginal information to me, so I try not to think about it a ton, but this situation seems perfect for it. Raise/calling is a slightly more profitable line (again I'm assuming your math checks out here, so don't buy what I say without knowing it, casual observor), but raise/calling has you losing 50% of your stack x% of the time. To figure otu what x is, look at how often you get to showdown and how many hands you lose (this is slightly different than the ev calculation, usually by +/- less than 2%). Maybe you want to preserve your lead in this spot for all the times you feel more comfortable raise/calling or open shoving or raise/folding, ya know? Like if you lose half your stack 40% of the time here, I'd be more inclined to make a better spot. I've never felt smart saying find a better spot, but I don't like that you have you getting called by one or more 64% of the time. This ramble isn't like,…specific to this spot, but more of a suggestion of something else to think about when doing this math. I like looking at it on holdemresources. I used to think “is this profitable” then it went “how profitable is it” then it went “should i press 'print money' now or will that effect my greater ability to push the button in the future”

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