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$5 FT 7 left: CO min raise BU 3 bet range with 12-13bb
bitdash
Lighting Money On Fire
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September 13, 2015 - 1:32 pm
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Final table with prize distribution as below

1st – 19.19%; 2nd – 14.25%; 3rd – 10.5%; 4th – 8%; 5th – 5.6%; 6th – 4.35%; 7th – 3.25%

$4.50+$0.50|4000/8000 Ante 1000 NL – Holdem – 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 12.39 BB
SB: 33.28 BB (VPIP: 17.36, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 12.77, Hands: 121)
BB: 16.99 BB (VPIP: 12.28, PFR: 10.91, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 57)
UTG: 43.5 BB (VPIP: 22.82, PFR: 13.10, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 150)
UTG+1: 11.2 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
MP: 82.15 BB (VPIP: 15.87, PFR: 13.11, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 64)
CO: 32.99 BB (VPIP: 39.53, PFR: 36.14, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 91)

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.38 BB) Hero has Aclub 3diamond

fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, Hero ?

CO is pretty decent player, and aggressive in stealing from late position. (15 times out of 21, 71.43% total 91 hands only)

assume CO open with
22+,A2+,K3s+,K6o+,Q8+,J8s+,J9o+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s (40.27%)
and call with
55+,A7s+,A8o+,KTs+,KQo (13.88%)

(16.7%) 22+,A2s+,A9o+,KTs+,KQo,QTs+,JTs is our pushing range. A3o is -0.05%

Assume
SB overcall is 99+,AK (3.8%)
BB overcall is 99+,AJs+,AQo+ (5.4%)

I think CO could be open more than 40.27%, making this decision a little bit closer.  What do you guys think?

The ICM is calculated with ICMizer 2, I think FGS (Future Game Simulation) is not needed here, as no stack is lower than 10bbs, and CO and me are not in UTG, SB, BB next hand.

 

joelshitshow
Playing The Prelims
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September 13, 2015 - 3:30 pm
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I can see CO folding small pairs and broadways because if he loses he has 20bigs left, although his relative standing doesn’t change as much if he loses (falling from 4th to 5th). Not sure how much that matters, especially when no one has fewer than 10BBs.

One other thing I can add, if you take out his opportunities to steal, he goes from 40/36/11 to 30/26/15 (assuming none of the steals were 3-bets. But those numbers are heavily skewed toward early and middle position hands. So I would say he’s not specifically aggressive at late-position steals but aggressive in general.

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