Only info on villain is they 4bet jammed us 3 hands prior. Didn't play with villain for any other part of the tourney.
Merge No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1250.00/t2500.00 Blinds – 7 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Hardcoded (UTG+1): t82119.00 32.85 BBs
Hero (MP): t97333.00 38.93 BBs
Spoton69 (CO): t51042.00 20.42 BBs
hodad50 (BTN): t31882.00 12.75 BBs
wallyworld12 (SB): t195072.00 78.03 BBs
jerseygirl232 (BB): t221406.00 88.56 BBs
wheresyourdevilatnow (UTG): t38146.00 15.26 BBs
Pre Flop: (t3750) Hero is MP with T T
2 folds, Hero raises to t5000, 3 folds, jerseygirl232 calls t2500
Flop: (t11250) J K J (2 players)
jerseygirl232 bets t6500.00, Hero raises to t23000, jerseygirl232 raises to t216156
Hero?
I think villain almost never has a Jack or a big king here. I would think a call is right because a few draws and smaller pairs are in the range as played. Thats my take on the hand. Interested to see what yall think.
Pce
CRUSH
so we know he his capable of 4 betting light? or you didnt see his hand? like if he he could have flush draw here for sure and knowing your capable of 3B folding easy shove for him. cant see QT seeing as you have TT. only question i have is what was your plan before you rerasied him on the flop? did you do it just to do it? and the only other time that you 3B he jamed over you (which u folded?). so many things to think about
I don't expect to be 4bet in this situation…as it happens so infrequently. The lead also makes a stronger case towards him having a draw also imo or a smaller pair, 99/88 ext. This is not a bad beat post. Is a fold proper here leaving my self 26bb with 7 left and putting me in the avg stack area or do I call and go with a more then 50% time him having draw or smaller pair (IMO) for the big chip lead? This is prolly simple spot for most but something I want to discuss.
CRUSH
Easy fold imo, villian easily flats your raise with TJ, KJ, J9s+, any suited K or J for that matter…. The lead was a setup to get you to raise… The argument I would have is, is there enough money in the pot to justify a call where you are winning a certain % of the time (low) vs you will hit the 2 outter (even lower).
Also, I would consider this. If the table is soft I would fold, continue to steal blinds and wait for a better spot… I'm no expert, just giving my 2 cents.
Jv
I don't think he has a lot of semibluffs if he 3bet shoves the flop. If you want to continue on your hand then just call the donk and reevaluate the turn. You won't get any value from worse by raising here, especially if the raise is 4x his donk. I would give his donk way more credit, you can't just rule out K or J imo. Flounder made a good point with the two tens out, giving his range way less draws.
As played this is a snapfold.
A small donk lead out is usually weak but this one is half pot so I dont think it is a draw, he has a K most likely. Dont think he believes a 3bet from you to his donk lead cause it is hard for you to have a J. People on Merge play transparent for the most part. Let this go to his donk lead because 3betting does not work and flatting him would leave you in trouble on turn.
If you call the shove there are three scenarios.
1 – he has a J or K, in which case you have 2 outs and you are of course very unhappy.
2 – he is on a draw, in which case you are ahead but now have to dodge the draw, which you are not really very happy about.
3 – he has a small pair, you only have to dodge 2 cards and you are delighted.
I really don't see him having a small pair here very often, could be a big draw or most likely a K I think. Your hand is not very strong anymore and you only really have the odds to call if you can be confident that it is scenario 2 or 3 enough of the time. I think raising his donk bet was a mistake on this board and as played you are now best off folding and finding another spot.
I mean my theory on the lead out is well documented. So obviously I dont believe the lead out. However although I seem to be right about the lead out a real good percentage of the time. Obviously there are sometimes your gonna be beat. This is a pretty wet board so I would prolly just fold and move on. Its super draw heavy and obviously overs. I dont mind the raise but I would get away from the shove.
Thx guys for offering yalls advice. I feel honored to have bigdog stop by and give his advice. I definitly know now that I made a bad call. Which btw I called and hit my 10 on the river if anyone is wondering. The villain had AJ. Even though I binked it i wanted to know if I made a bad call and clearly i did. Thanks again guys for taking the time to offer your wisdom.
Pce
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