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(1 votes) 
May 1, 2015
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Hi,
First of all, this is my first post in the forums, so if I am doing something wrong or I am posting in the wrong forum I apologize in advance.
Tittle pretty much says all, but here is the break down and some details:
$4K gtd Carbon tournament, >400 players down to 18, first hand of the last two tables.
Hero is on BB with 40BB stack,
SB with 50BB stack,
Button with 20BB stack.
Action folded to Button, who min raises. SB ships.
Hero wakes up with AKo on BB.
Question: As understood from the stack sizes, both hero and SB have healty stacks. SB has hero covered. What is the most profitable action for hero over long term? Ship or fold?
Thank you.
September 14, 2014
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Hey welcome to TPE!
As for the hand , I just can't think of a situation in which you should be folding here. I'd pretty much ^5 my computer and be happy with it!
button is going to be opening pretty wide here, it's quite difficult to say what the small blinds 3-bet shoving range will be but in this spot i'd say the tightest he will be is TT+ AQs+ and even against that range you're doing pretty damm well! 🙂 I doubt the sb will be 3-bet shoving TOO wide , given how deep you are in the tourney , so i dont think they'll do anything too crazy as such , AK is an easy GII though imo.
April 11, 2015
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It’s definitely a call every time. I feel like this is a middle PP more often then not so its very likely your in a race and slightly behind which is what im guessing happened since you posted it. However there are still a lot of hands your dominating and I feel like almost never being dominated by AA or KK here because the shove is almost definitely intended to isolate the 20bb stack while a monster hand would probably try and put a smaller raise in and hope you come over the top with a hand like 99 or something.
November 24, 2013
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This is probably an ICM fold. It is a ridiculous overshove from the SB here at 40 BB effective which is likely not that strong. But with a topheavy payout structure (I dont know the structures at Carbon, but I assume they are) you do not gain a lot of equity when you have 40 BB more but lose it all when you lose. Average stack size would be important here, but generally I am pretty sure you have to put villain on a quite wide range of non-PPs to make this profitable. For one table you can calculate this using tools like ICMizer (free in the web) not sure about two tables but I think you can get pretty close if you just combine or average two places for payouts. Might be closer with AKs.
January 28, 2013
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I call and feel really good about it. SB can easily have AJ and AQ which we dominate thoroughly.
April 2, 2014
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If, and it is a huge if, you have tons of experience on final tables and taking them down when you reach them with the smallest stack then I can understand avoiding trouble, to a degree… But im not that good, so for me I am grabbing the flip with both hands.
May 1, 2015
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Hi,
Thank you for your responses. As most of you already mentioned, I thought I was ahead of SB's range and I basically ignored the button since s/he has a wide opening range there. I called, Button folded, SB showed AJo.
Well, only after SB hit the J and I missed the K, I started thinking more about an ICM fold here. Carbon tournaments do have topheavy payout structure. As @Fire also mentioned, with a 40BB stack I am not sure if this was the best spot to take the flip for your tournament life.
January 28, 2013
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Jeddite said:
Hi,
Thank you for your responses. As most of you already mentioned, I thought I was ahead of SB's range and I basically ignored the button since s/he has a wide opening range there. I called, Button folded, SB showed AJo.
Well, only after SB hit the J and I missed the K, I started thinking more about an ICM fold here. Carbon tournaments do have topheavy payout structure. As @Fire also mentioned, with a 40BB stack I am not sure if this was the best spot to take the flip for your tournament life.
The thing is we arent taking a flip all the time, as his AJ shows. His range is much wider than just low-medium PPs and is definitely +EV in the longrun. Losing a 70/30 is just bad luck. Try not to be too results oriented about it.
May 1, 2015
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@Kalculater, yes it ended up being 70/30 after he showed but I am thinking about our pre-flop decision. What I do is give him the following range: ATs+, ATo+, 55+. Against AKo, this is almost a flip: we are 54%, villain is 46%. This is why I am contemplating about the ICM fold. Btw, I am by no means results oriented here, I have had my share of bad luck, and I know I am gonna have more. I know this is clearly a +EV move in the long run if we ignore our depth in the tournament, but again, my procrastination is about being so deep at the last two tables and understanding whether there is more value in folding because of the stack size.
January 28, 2013
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Jeddite said:
@Kalculater, yes it ended up being 70/30 after he showed but I am thinking about our pre-flop decision. What I do is give him the following range: ATs+, ATo+, 55+. Against AKo, this is almost a flip: we are 54%, villain is 46%. This is why I am contemplating about the ICM fold. Btw, I am by no means results oriented here, I have had my share of bad luck, and I know I am gonna have more. I know this is clearly a +EV move in the long run if we ignore our depth in the tournament, but again, my procrastination is about being so deep at the last two tables and understanding whether there is more value in folding because of the stack size.
To thoroughly estimate this from an ICM point of view you need to give all other stacks in the tournament, what you consider your edge as a %, payout structure, our position currently in the tournament etc. Given the exact scenario presented you also need to consider the BU's shoving range and how far we are ahead of his range also as his shove makes this spot even more juicy.
If the BU had folded and SB shoved would you have called with AKo?
February 1, 2013
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We have an A & a K ….. “nuff sed” get that stack in quicker than a rat up a drainpipe!!!!! We want to win this comp and the ICM considerations here don’t really come in until hitting FT. The likelihood we’re in a 70/30 is waaaaaaaaay too appealing to not take this chance to put us on 80+ bigs and have a stack that can crush FT. All the money is in the top 3 spots and we have 18 left, that is way to far away to consider our current 40 bigs stack an ICM consideration.
get it in…. fist pump…. do a cartwheel round the room… thumb-your-nose at the SB and start count your chips!!! 🙂
Winners FIND a WAY
May 20, 2013
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You are in the final 18, so the MTT feels to “close” to you and each decision could be your last, but that is the nature of any MTT. If you want to win the Tourney (and you do), you play for a top position. The button is as you say, not really a factor and the SB overshove range is clearly Ax and pairs JJ or less (prob even TT or less) or perhaps even any two. You are WAY ahead of ranges here.
now, when is AK NOT going to call here might be a better question? If effective stacks were say 100BB, would you call that off with AKo with just 18 left? Even that is more of a preference than what is “correct” play.
so he hit a Jack as a 30% dog and you lost. You made the better decision and in the LONG RUN, that is what is going to make you the better player with better results.
November 24, 2013
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jdogloves46 said:
We have an A & a K ….. “nuff sed” get that stack in quicker than a rat up a drainpipe!!!!! We want to win this comp and the ICM considerations here don't really come in until hitting FT. The likelihood we're in a 70/30 is waaaaaaaaay too appealing to not take this chance to put us on 80+ bigs and have a stack that can crush FT. All the money is in the top 3 spots and we have 18 left, that is way to far away to consider our current 40 bigs stack an ICM consideration.
get it in…. fist pump…. do a cartwheel round the room… thumb-your-nose at the SB and start count your chips!!! 🙂
ICM considerations are important at every stage of a tournament not just at the final or or final two tables. Of course you can just ignore the math and hope you gamble it up, but then you might as well play roulette.
February 1, 2013
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There is no ICM considerations when we have AK 40 bigs and 18 left. Our only consideration is how quickly we press the All-In btn. This is not about gambling (nice needle!!! Simply LOL’s) it’s about fully understanding “the maths” and payouts of MTT’s. Not taking this spot is simply ridiculous. You might as well give up poker and and play roulette….. Wink wink!!!
Winners FIND a WAY
January 28, 2013
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jdogloves46 said:
There is no ICM considerations when we have AK 40 bigs and 18 left. Our only consideration is how quickly we press the All-In btn. This is not about gambling (nice needle!!! Simply LOL's) it's about fully understanding “the maths” and payouts of MTT's. Not taking this spot is simply ridiculous. You might as well give up poker and and play roulette….. Wink wink!!!
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