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Hey super cool pokerstove math people, is this an obvious math call vs tight villian? I am last to act.
Merge Network $5,000 Guaranteed – Rebuys / Addon No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2000.00/t4000.00 Blinds + t400.00 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
b31fry (UTG+1): BB = 9.2, t36966
petehasaplan (MP1): BB = 17.5, t69844
TheSap (MP2): BB = 5.2, t20964
SweetNat123 (CO): BB = 14.8, t59009
tARshEHT (BTN): BB = 97.8, t391045
WhiteSlave (SB): BB = 27.3, t109142
Hero (BB): BB = 46.4, t185457
BigE50 (UTG): BB = 11.7, t46782
Pre Flop: (t9200) Hero is BB with 8
2
3 folds, TheSap raises to t20964 all in, 4 folds
October 6, 2010
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cliffs: i think it is a -EV call, and that we should be calling with 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K2o+,Q8o+,J9o+,T9o
just plugged some numbers into the MTT math spreadsheet (which i have copied at the bottom)
The neutral EV point is when we have 41% equity. Now, playing around with ranges in pokerstove, it turns out that even if villain is literally shoving any 2 cards, the most equity we have with 82o is 36.8%, which would make this a -EV shove by 0.54BB.
Here is your equity against different ranges, which only make it worse for us.
Range EV
80% 33.8
60% 31.4
40% 29.7
Now is this at the final table? If it was, this could become an ICM correct call depending on the pay jumps, although i am not 100% sure. If you had the pay jumps we could work it out. If this was not at the final table, i think it is a clear fold.
An interesting answer would be what a calling range looks like
Even if villain is tight, i would expect at least a 40% shoving range, which looks something like this 44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o. maybe you could help out in this range hawkeye, whether it is wider or narrower.
so, plugging a 40% range into pokerstove, we can then find hands that will give us at least 41% equity against this range.to do this, i just started with a hand and plugged it in, found the 41% hand and went from there. in this case, against a 40% shoving range, we get a calling range of
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K2o+,Q8o+,J9o+,T9o
this roughly works out to 45%
maybe this is tldr by now, but i hope i am on the right track and that it helps.
| Calling a Shove | |||
| Pot | 30164 | ||
| Your Stack | 185457 | ||
| BB | 4000 | ||
| Effective Stack | 20964 | ||
| Win % | 41.00% | ||
| Lose % | 59.00% | ||
| Pot Odds | 9.72% | ||
| If we call and win | 215621 | ||
| If we call and lose | 164493 | ||
| EV of a Call | 185455 | ||
| EV of a Fold | 185457 | ||
| Net EV of a Shove | -2 | ||
| EV as % of Stack | 0.00% | ||
| EV as # of BBs | 0.00 | ||
| Risk of Busto | 59.00% | ||
Considering it's barely -EV can we still call ATC here? Before actually seeing the math behind it, and even still seeing some spots that could be slightly -EV, I don't know that I would fold at all for 5bbs. Is this too loose of a mindset?
October 6, 2010
Offline
DrewPeacoq8 said:
Considering it's barely -EV can we still call ATC here? Before actually seeing the math behind it, and even still seeing some spots that could be slightly -EV, I don't know that I would fold at all for 5bbs. Is this too loose of a mindset?
i think i would do the same.
and as i mentioned, if there are pay jumps in mind, -0.5bb in EV would probably be more than made up for by ICM increases in busting the player
bennymacca said:
DrewPeacoq8 said:
Considering it's barely -EV can we still call ATC here? Before actually seeing the math behind it, and even still seeing some spots that could be slightly -EV, I don't know that I would fold at all for 5bbs. Is this too loose of a mindset?
i think i would do the same.
and as i mentioned, if there are pay jumps in mind, -0.5bb in EV would probably be more than made up for by ICM increases in busting the player
Cool man, good insight. 🙂
Thanks for the insight. I did fold. It felt dumb to fold for 5bb's when I am deep like that but I really like my 45bb stack and like I said, villian was tight and patient so I thought I am crushed by overs some of the time and didnt see the point. Looks like it is even closer than I thought. Slightly -EV but there is definitely merit in calling, it would also show the table that I have no problem calling with 8 high.
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