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45 Man MTSNGS - ICM vs Chip Equity
greenhat
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November 14, 2010 - 10:16 am
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1st post! Ill do that whole introduction sometime soon thing but in the meantime…

8 left in a Stars 45 man. 7 pay. We are in the big blind and its folded to the small blind who is an aggressive reg and he shoves. We are confident in our read that he is shoving close to 100% here but even if its just as interesting. We both have kind of an average stack. Lets say we are 4th and 5th with about 7 or 8 bbs each. Its a common situation. Given the payout structure my gut tells me to play for the top 3 in these things but the maths is interesting.

From a cEV perspective we should call here at least 40% of the time. Sometimes more depending on exact stack sizes.

Depending on the other stack sizes and blind level though, from an ICM perspective we should often be calling with only Aces and Kings.

I know its a never ending debate and that the answer is no doubt somewhere in the middle. But what factors are influencing our decisions and in what way? Like I say its a pretty common spot and whatever is influencing this decision is influencing a lot of decisions when you get down to 9, 10, 11 players in these things so I would definitely like to see some discussion on just how wide we should be “hero calling” in 45 mans?

(How different is it in 180s?)

jshilling09
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November 14, 2010 - 1:26 pm
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you should be taking gambles and playing closer to chip ev in the 180s b/c you need to place in the top 2 a significant portion of the time to have a positive ROI.  Cashing is more important in these, as they play closer to 9 man sngs.  Think of it this way, when you reach the money in a 45 man, 31% of the prize pool gets payed out, and you play for the remaining 69%.  When you reach the money in a 180 man, only 21.6% of the prize pool is distributed, and you are playing for 78.4%.  So the main difference is you should be more ICM aware in 45 mans, and play more to make the money, and in 180 mans, take gambles so you can win or get second.

jshilling09
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November 14, 2010 - 1:28 pm
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so don't hero call too wide haha

greenhat
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November 15, 2010 - 12:43 pm
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Thanks. I wasnt really asking about the difference between 45s and 180s though. Im more trying to get some idea of whether we should favour cEV or ICM when calling, and since the answer is probably it depends…. what does it depend on. Maybe an example is a better way to ask the question.

 

This is not the most extreme example but the question applies. If we consider the villain is an aggro reg trying to isolate on the bubble we could define a very reasonable range where SNGWiz will tell us that from an ICM perspective we should be calling QQ+ only. At the same time if we have a hand like TT/JJ or AQ/AK we are very likely to be a 60%+ fav over his range and winning this pot gives us a great shot at winning the tourney. So what do we do and why?

Poker Stars $3.00 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t400/t800 Blinds + t50 – 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: BB = 10.4, t8285
UTG+1: BB = 0.6, t470
MP1: BB = 12.6, t10065
MP2: BB = 5.7, t4560
CO: BB = 15.6, t12485
BTN: BB = 11.4, t9101
SB: BB = 13.9, t11104
Hero (BB): BB = 14.3, t11430

Pre Flop: (t1600) Hero is BB with XX

1 fold, UTG+1 calls t420 all in, 2 folds, [color=red]CO raises to t12435 all in[/color], 2 folds, Hero ?? 

lespaulgman
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November 16, 2010 - 10:34 am
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Situations like this in MTTs I will typically fold if someone else decides they are strong enough to isolate unless I am holding a very narrow range of hands (AA-QQ, AK). I have started to take a substantially lower variance line to these types of plays are I find that more often than not in the lower stakes stuff you are going to be getting the short end of the stick and racing at best almost all the time. I much prefer to fold this and look for spots where I can dictate the pace and action, rather than have to deal with someone else giving out the terms.

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