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July 24, 2018
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First hand after dinner; BB is not back. I open K8dd to 4500 (2000BB) in lojack, good young European flats Cutoff. He is effective stack at 100K. No particular reads on Villain. Has been active but not crazy. Doesn’t cbet 100% like many at this level.
Flop 8h7d3c. I check call 4K
Turn 2d. I check call 11.5K
River As. I check Villain bets 21K?
Thoughts on all streets welcome.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I’d fold river. K8 is not especially close to the top of your range on this river.
I’d also bet flop. It’s likely a mix at equilibrium, but this will be one of highest-frequency bets, as it’s a strong but extremely vulnerable hand that will profit from both calls and folds. Check-raising turn is also appealing. All these decisions are close though, so I’m not saying you made mistakes, just that you had other options.
July 24, 2018
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It looks like all streets are a mix on my PIO run.
My thoughts:
Flop. I’ve taken to checking range on neutral flops when OOP, especially vs good players and playing deep. I agree this would be a good betting candidate, but also thought Villain would likely bet any hand that is worse. Is it better to check/call vs a worse hand, or bet/take it?
Turn. I thought about check raising, but this seems like a good hand to just call with. Some of the overcards make us 2P or a flush, so we need less protection here than if we had, say 99. Also, if Villain jams, we will be in a gross spot.
River. I did call (that calling demon). Obviously just a bluff catcher at this point. We do block 88, which is good. Villain probably doesn’t have a lot of Ax in his range. Looking at my range as we get to the river, this is very close to the bottom, so yes, should have folded..
December 30, 2015
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I like a bet on the flop to stay uncapped and protect equity. Also I want to bet some over-pairs for pure-value and AQ+ as a mix, so catching the random TPTK with an 8 from EP seams right to add in (shouldn’t be there often). I also don’t mind taking this down on the flop.
Question: What does a check-calling range look like? Some AA, AQs+, JT, J9? Do you think it is better to bet or check with combinations that have a backdoor flush draw versus no backdoor flush draw? Does it have to be to the nuts?
I can see not wanting to bloat the pot out of position but the backdoor flush and 2-pair possibilities bring some more options on the turn to barrel or check-call. Betting also tightens up the villains range more than a check-call too since we are still uncapped right? I mean, I assume villain should be folding or calling their entire range on this board since it isn’t very dynamic and really only sets of 3s and 6s are beating us if we discount 99+: JJ+ due to preflop action and maybe TT, and discounting 99-TT because that would be pure gamble since we are uncapped. The SPR is awkward too at ~2.6…say we C-bet small-ish to 5k, making the pot 17k with ~45k left in villain’s stack…I don’t think there is anything villain can do here as a bluff; re-raise to ~15k or shove, it is all so awkward and strong! Shoving any draw on this board as a semi-bluff seems bad too. Maybe villain re-raises exactly 99-TT to “see where they are”, but I can’t imagine we are supposed to raise 99-TT in their shoes, in this flop-c-bet scenario.
Finally, any Q+ turn is really good for our range so I’m not sure there is much the villain can do there either. What are the bad turn cards? 6, 9-J? I’m assuming the odd 54s folds the flop…maybe a few make it due to back-door draws or something but even if they get there they can’t push too hard. Even if another suit backdoor flush becomes possible that could just add more calls and bluffs in to their range.
Anyway, I just feel like we know a lot more going in to the turn if we bet the flop and can reevaluate the turn as needed. All lines are open.
WDYT?
July 24, 2018
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Checking the flop does not cap my range; I’d check some AA and 88 here. I don’t think betting here gives us as much protection as you think; We both know my range is quite wide here, so Villain will be floating with a LOT of hands that we’d like to fold, like 2 overcards. My feeling at the table was that he’d bet those hands if I checked, so keeping the pot smaller (for the times we are behind) was my main goal.
I prefer to check call the value hands with a BDFD, and bet the whiffs with the BDFD.
The SPR is way bigger than you mentioned. There is 100K behind 14K in the pot for an SPR of 7.
I think your assumption about Villain playing essentially fit/fold is off here. If there was ever a spot for a float, this is it. I have a relatively weak range, the board is quite dynamic, stacks are deep and we are OOP. Unless we go quite big, we just aren’t getting a lot of folds on the flop here.
December 30, 2015
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The SPR is way bigger than you mentioned. There is 100K behind 14K in the pot for an SPR of 7.
You are right, I think I switched 50bb with 50k in my mind there.
Another mistake I made is that you have a K kicker, not an A. I don’t know why I read this wrong but it puts another backdoor flush combo in V’s range, at least. I think it also adds to the bet side of the balance sheet as a K has less equity, less flush-blocking value and less nut-out-possibility.
Fair enough on all points. Just for arguments sake, I think you might be over-weighting pure floats. In general I don’t like the concept of floats since it generalizes the concept. I think the hands that call and are unpaired with no other equity sources might be exactly AKo? And we block some combos and he didn’t 3-bet pre, so I’d say there are none. Anything else I would expect to have some extra connection to the board, even if as weak as a back-door flush draw; two suited overs. If he has something like ATdd I want to make V decide if they want to pay to try and see another diamond, 9, A, or T show up. Also we are only talking about low-equity floats here. With the BB gone I think his range opens up even wider so there are so many combos that continue here that we are still ahead of.
Anyway, I think if “it’s a mix” I fall on the side of betting here. Especially since my personal style needs more C-betting and I also do a lot of under-half-pot c-betting in situations like this so this feels like a nice one to slot in for me personally. I don’t think I larger c-bet would accomplish much more either, but that is another discussion.
June 28, 2018
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3for3 said
Checking the flop does not cap my range; I’d check some AA and 88 here. I don’t think betting here gives us as much protection as you think; We both know my range is quite wide here, so Villain will be floating with a LOT of hands that we’d like to fold, like 2 overcards. My feeling at the table was that he’d bet those hands if I checked, so keeping the pot smaller (for the times we are behind) was my main goal.
Isn’t this a case for a bet/bet line? If we think villain is going to be calling with a lot of two over combos I think we should be looking to get more money in with our specific hand on the flop as we are in good shape against that range.
July 24, 2018
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I think a bet goes in either way on the flop. If I am right about that, then betting accomplishes nothing, it only allows Villain to raise a polarized range, instead of betting a condensed range. It also makes the pot larger on a dynamic board, with deep stacks, out of position.
FWIW, and this is late enough that I can ‘spoil’ Villain did have AJo, no diamond that double barreled and got there…
November 28, 2015
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Flop. I’ve taken to checking range on neutral flops when OOP, especially vs good players and playing deep. I agree this would be a good betting candidate, but also thought Villain would likely bet any hand that is worse.
That’s slightly ambitious to think villain would bet any hand that is worse. Maybe he’d bet the gutter-pair combos like 66,55, but I don’t think he’s going to bet any hand that’s worse.
“Is it better to check/call vs a worse hand, or bet/take it?”
-I don’t think there’s a clear-cut, better or worse, answer to this question since there’s other factors to be consider. The best-case scenario is that you bet and get called by a hand that’s worse with little to no chance of improving on future streets. Betting is the best option because not only do you get to dictate the price; you ensure that money goes into the pot on the flop, protect your equity (which is important), maintain the betting lead (which will be most useful on the turn), and potentially realize 100% of your equity when Euro folds the turn. I am just saying that you can find better candidates for your flop checking range.
“Turn. I thought about check raising, but this seems like a good hand to just call with. Some of the over-cards make us 2P or a flush, so we need less protection here than if we had, say 99. Also, if Villain jams, we will be in a gross spot.”
There’s only 3 overs that make you two pair, but there’s 15 that your hand is vulnerable to. Your hand benefits enough from protection that keeping the betting lead by betting the flop or check/raising the turn are much better options than check/calling. I understand that we will often realize less of our equity due to our positional disadvantage, but I think your hand has enough equity that it’s worth fighting for by playing aggressively. I can see check/calling being a better option for a hand like 7x or pk 66-55. But K8 is only behind A8, 99-TT, 87s, and 7 sets (since you block 8s). Villain has decent EQ against you with hands like JT, QJ, T9, 56, KQ, AQ, AJ, AT, J9, Q9, K9, A9 with BDFDs and two overs on the flop. Sure, we want worse hands to call, and a lot of his CO flatting range will have hands that will wont fold flop, but they should fold on the turn. By keeping the betting lead post-flop, you would be the one firing the turn (choosing the price) and cleaning up your equity. Which is a pretty decent result for a marginal hand OOP.
“River. I did call (that calling demon). Obviously just a bluff catcher at this point. We do block 88, which is good. Villain probably doesn’t have a lot of Ax in his range. Looking at my range as we get to the river, this is very close to the bottom, so yes, should have folded..”
I can see why you would be tempted to call on the river because you do block some of villains value hands (89 A8 T8 J8 etc). I think this river is a good example of why you should lean more towards betting the flop. If you had kept the betting lead post-flop, betting flop and turn, then I would agree that villain doesn’t have a lot of Ax in his range. He would have likely folded most, if not all, of his Ax that isn’t made, to your turn bet. By giving up the betting lead, I think we end up helping him realize his equity without getting too OOL.
“I don’t think betting here gives us as much protection as you think; We both know my range is quite wide here, so Villain will be floating with a LOT of hands that we’d like to fold, like 2 overcards.”
-I think betting gives us more protection than you’re leading on. Sure, we are not going to get villain to fold to a flop bet with a decent chunk of his range, but that’s perfectly fine. We are happy to pick up these extra chips when we fire a turn bet, which is exactly when we expect him to be folding his over-cards and draws. Just bet 1/3 pot on the flop. This should keep the pot relatively small in relation to the strength of your hand, your position, and the effective stack.
“My feeling at the table was that he’d bet those hands if I checked, so keeping the pot smaller (for the times we are behind) was my main goal.”
-What were you planning to do on the turn? Villain is not going to just fold the turn when you check to him. I honestly don’t see you leading the turn after you check/called the flop either. You’re essentially going to give him a free river, letting him realize 100% of his equity on a board that’s decent for your hand. Again, I think checking/calling the flop works better for hands like 55, 66, A7, 44s. Any hand that can’t stand a lot of pressure. Also, you’re not really keeping the pot smaller by checking. You’re keeping it smaller by calling instead of raising. You’re also allowing your opponent to set the price. What would you do if villain bet like 8k-10k instead? You’re obviously not folding but the pot on the turn would be almost 3x bigger than it was on the flop. I understand that your hand is marginal. Not a hand you want to risk your whole stack with. But it is worthy of fighting for given the board texture, your position, and your stack size. Your opponents stack is what’s at risk. Without having a decent piece of this board, he’s probably not going to stack off with an SPR of 7 either. So bet small on the flop and bet 66-75% on the turn. He should fold MOST of his Ax, Straight Draws, and Flush draws then.
I think a bet goes in either way on the flop. If I am right about that, then betting accomplishes nothing, it only allows Villain to raise a polarized range, instead of betting a condensed range. It also makes the pot larger on a dynamic board, with deep stacks, out of position.
FWIW, and this is late enough that I can ‘spoil’ Villain did have AJo, no diamond that double barreled and got there…
Exactly. A bet should go in either way on the flop and you should be the one who makes it. Unless you have specific info on villain that leads you to believe he’s overly aggressive and will raise your continuation bet? From what you’ve told us so far about his pre-flop action, I highly doubt he’s going to just drop it into 3rd gear and step on the gas petal. If you are wrong about your assumption, you’re going to give up the betting lead, let villain dictate the bet sizes, and let him realize 100% of his equity with the parts of his range that your hand benefits from seeing in the muck. Villain can easily bet and/or raise any time the action is on him. What parts of his preflop range do you think he’s most-likely to do this with? He doesn’t have the biggest over-pairs in his range, but you do. He does have all the sets, which there’s only 7 because you block all but one combo of 88s. You also block 50% of his two pair range (87). He could bet/raise for value with 88, 77, 33 (7 combos) for value. And as bluffs, T9s, 56s, and 3 combos of JTs (the 3 with BDFD) for a total of 11 combos. There’s not really that many hands/combos that he going to be raising you with. So for all of these reasons, I think betting is better than checking on the flop.
July 24, 2018
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I mentioned upthread that PIO mixes with my hand on all streets. Let’s take a deeper look at this hand/flop for our range.
I weakened Villain’s calling range from the firs time I did this; I now have 53% equity and a very slight EV advantage on the flop.
PIO bets my range 2/3 of the time. The hand it likes to bet most is TT, 8x is also a very high frequency bet. The hands it likes to check most are AWhh, no pair no draw type hands. Obviously the protection element of this bet is strong. It does check AA 30% of the time.
When we do check, Villain bets 57% of the time. Once again, everything is a mix; its favorite hands to check are the small pairs; I guess Villain doesn’t benefit as much from protection; my checking range has lots of medium strength one pair hands that it has poor equity against.
We fold only 24% of the time; only hands like KJ no BDFD are pure folds. PIO does check raise a lot of the hands it thought it should bet on the flop, like TT and 8x.
Once we check/call flop, PIO doesn’t donk turn. It does split check/call and check/raise with my hand.
Since that Ace is good for my range on the river, it bets a huge amount (in a donk spot) about 1/2 of its range. Interestingly, it donks almost all of its no pair hands that got here, as well as the small pairs, and AJ+ for value. Unsurprisingly, it does not bluff my hand. It doesn’t fold my hand on the river, but mixes calls and raises. It has the call worth almost 1BB; the jam worth almost 3BB.
How do I feel about how I played this vs what PIO thinks?
I like my flop check; I think Villain will bet even more than PIO does, and will call most of my flop bets anyway. Should I check raise flop? This is a really good spot for that play. All of the benefits of a bet plus we win more chips when the Villain folds. If we force my check/Villain bet, which I think might be close to reality, the check/raise becomes even more profitable.
Checking the turn is obvious; the board didn’t change in a meaningful way; normal to play ‘in flow’. Check raise the turn? I don’t like it. If Villain shoves, our hand is just a good high equity bluff catcher. Plus we might have excellent implied odds on a diamond river.
River check is again obvious; my hand is too strong to turn into a bluff. Should we check shove river like PIO does? Well, this is a super high variance play, might be right at cash. For a tournament, I am not doing this. Perhaps a leak, ie not having a river check raise bluff range. I don’t really get here with much worse, so technically this would be a great spot for a bluff (my 8 blocks 88 and A8).
December 30, 2015
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I wish I knew more about how PIO works. For example, can you tell it to have no donk bets in the simulation? Is it skewing your % results on the flop because of options on future streets that humans are not taking yet (e.g. a balanced donk range)? Meaning, if you can not donk on any street, does the flop action % change dramatically to balance back out?
I think Andrew’s short answer still sums this all up the best for me and is worth a re-read.
The key point I was trying to make is that the flop hand is strong but fragile. We can get plenty of worse hands to call and some worse hands with decent equity to fold. We have top pair with better kicker, that can improve, has strong back-door draws, on a board that doesn’t hurt advantage-wise, when I have the betting lead and probably the best hand when called…I am betting this situation at 100% frequency. I’d probably even donk-bet this flop if positions were reversed some times.
…and that is just our actual hand. Villain has to put a lot of stronger hands in our range too when deciding to call. Even PIO only checks AA 30% of the time you say. If the field is going to call our flop bet at the frequency you worry about then we probably should be betting AA and sets too at a higher frequency then I might today.
One thing we didn’t mention is that, as played, I strongly disagree with Villain’s line 😉 …I wonder what he thought (or didn’t think) about what you had when you called the turn. I guess a draw of some sort that you decided not to bet? Weird. In his shoes I probably prefer to check behind, check the turn or if you bet call as a bluff catcher with A-high, and be happy I got there on the river and go for small value.
An aside: I am enjoying this thread. I hope my replies do not come of as argumentative (in a negative way). I don’t think there are any big mistakes going on in any line being discussed. It is thought-provoking to talk through these subtle deviations, not just on the flop, but down all streets.
July 24, 2018
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You can absolutely tell it not to let hero or Villain bet (or raise) in certain spots. On boards where BB defends and I expect no leading range, I don’t let it donk, just to speed up the process.
Andrew’s answer is, of course, on point. One thing I’d push back on; as he says, this is a mix (meaning EV of check and bet are the same). In these cases, we should aim to make exploitative plays based on our read of Villain. My read was that he was going to bet about 85% of his range anyway (we get value from worse) and was rarely going to fold this flop for a small bet. So, my exploit was to check and let him bet. When he has hands he would have called, little has changed (other than the ‘lead’). When he has hands he might have raised (sets, and some draws), I keep the pot smaller.
Where I disagree with you is the hands with decent equity are just not folding in this dynamic.
We can agree not to like Villain’s line. I think his exploit of me was that I had a weak one pair/AK/AQ type of hand, and he could barrel me off of that. I think he knew I was a big favorite to call his bet (after all, it was only 28% pot) on the flop, and he could get my weak hands to fold the turn. I have the feeling based on this thread, and one on 2+2 that most players checking range here is too weak, so his exploit might well be a good one.
Love to talk/analyze these hands. This one in particular seems to have created a lot of interest, and some good discussion.
BTW, I rewatched (probably for the 20th time) the movie that your screen name suggests.
December 30, 2015
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BTW, I rewatched (probably for the 20th time) the movie that your screen name suggests.
Me? You mean “F/X” (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0089118/)? HA! That isn’t actually where my screenname comes from but it was an influence on young-Rafe (me), for sure! My screen name was actually supposed to be “MovieMagic”, which is a Discovery Channel show I loved. I still remember the Jurassic Park episode. I later got to work at the same company, doing a bit of a full circle. I started playing online poker at that same time in 2007, San Francisco. I remember reading Super System, those “Little <color> Book”s by Phil Gordon and some Sklansky, I’m sure, while losing my pennies to the UltimateBet field, even at that juicy time in Poker history. I couldn’t find the “Movie Magic” episode but in this one at about 36:40 in you get a glimpse of the first serious visual effects software I used, Softimage. Anyway, “MovieMagic” was taken so I, sadly, settled on MovieFX. Wish I would have tried “moviemAAgic”… small regrets!
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