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$4.40 8max top pair facing 1.5x pot donk jam on turn... easy call???

jamo

Grinding Micros

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August 8, 2012

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November 17, 2012 - 5:17 am

Villain is 30/9 over 24 hands. He's already limped and called a raise with T7s. His total AF is 0.0 so far. I think I should be betting for value again on the turn, but then I'm obviously committed to the pot. I'm not sure I like a check back though since he could easily have a flush draw. But on any non-diamond river I can pick off some bluffs if he chooses to take that route. However, he's very passive and I wonder if he looks to bluff a missed river like that.

As played, the only hand that I can see where I'm ahead is something like KdXd where he's picked up a pair plus a flush draw. Is he ever jamming weaker Ax hands here given his passive stats?

Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t20/t40 Blinds – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): t3317 82.92 BBs
CO: t4979 124.47 BBs
BTN: t3415 85.38 BBs
SB: t2960 74 BBs
BB: t5479 136.97 BBs
UTG: t2705 67.62 BBs
UTG+1: t5060 126.50 BBs
MP1: t1945 48.62 BBs

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is MP2 with A of spades Q of hearts
2 folds, MP1 calls t40, Hero raises to t160, 2 folds, SB calls t140, 1 fold, MP1 calls t120

Flop: (t520) A of clubs 2 of diamonds 8 (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets t280, SB folds, MP1 calls t280

Turn: (t1080) K of spades (2 players)
MP1 bets t1505 all in, Hero ???

packallama

High Stakes Shark

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November 17, 2012 - 8:00 am

I like your 4x pre and flop bet sizing. I agree that we should bet again on the turn for value if checked to us. As played, I call turn. The K is a blank because it does not improve any hands we think he is limp calling to two-pair. Although it does add equity to many flushdraws by adding a pair or a gutshot. Seeing him limp called 107s indicates that he is a weaker player and makes me want to call the turn shove more. I do not think we should base our play too much off HUD stats over 24 hands and conclude that he is only betting the nuts. Call turn and hope to fade river.

I think his range looks like: (22, 88, A8, A2s, AdXd, XdXd) with many more combinations of diamonds than value hands.

mrplow524

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November 17, 2012 - 11:18 am

Just a couple of thoughts; what’s the structure and what is your take on the rest of the players at the table? If you think you have a big edge on the table is it worth calling nearly 40bb on the turn when you don’t know where you are in the hand?. it’s still early and blinds are only 20/40, by the turn you’ve only committed 11bb to the hand and still have over 70 behind if you fold. It looks like the villain clearly is a weak player from the way he has played as we would expect a raise pre flop from premiums – AA, KK, AK, AKs and a flat from pairs – 22, 88 and connectors but he is clearly an unorthodox player so it looks like its going to be difficult figuring out what he had. I know you probably think your good here but I think it’s better to wait for a better spot than risk a huge chunk of your stack in this situation.

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