i think i'm bet/folding here.

he has shown strength flatting your 3-bet with o/r still to act.

i gotta range him on something like a-j+  maybe 88+. and very wary of jj,qq.

think he shoves his 30bb aa kk and flats jj qq to see if overs come on flop.

don't think i could check call here, because you would see a shove on turn with him only having less than a pot size bet left and still have no idea of the strength of his hand.

if he shoves your c-bet, think it's an easy fold as you still have 40bb and plenty of time.

his range here seems really tight to me. 

plus i think a possibility of him flatting pre, hoping o/r tools out and shoves is a good possibility.

hawkeyeK9 said:

I dont think this is a good spot to 3bet pre. You are 3betting oop with ATo and there are not many flops at all that will be good for you. You were fortunate enough to flop well but a majority of the time you will not and you will be forced to cbet oop and villian could easily put you off the hand.

As it is, your situation even got tougher since the BB decided to flat your 3bet. I think his range could be any low to medium pair trying to set mine or AJ+. Like tmck21 said, I think bet/fold is the best option at this point because we are deep and could be beat here by a set or maybe even JJ. His stats show to be very tight and I am not sure he would 3bet your c-bet light. 

I think if our original villian in the CO is opening a lot of pots then we should be looking to 3bet him when we have position on him and when we do it wont matter what hand we are holding, we could outplay him or flop huge and stack him. 

 

Hawkeye – I really like your analysis here, but have a q about 3betting spots oop……

If your not 3betting hands like AT from blinds to aggro LP raiser, what hands are you? AQ+, ATs+ TT+?

I know we rarely want to be oop, but you cant be saying you only 3bet monsters from blinds are you?

I can undertsand it if your saying only 3bet monsters or napkins, any mediocre hands like ATo, will just get us in trouble.  But seems like we should be cbetting many of our light 3bets if flop is not too wet…. so why not medicore hands like AT (whether we flop TPTK or not)

oop can we just 3bet larger? getting less calls, repping a monster if we are called? and take most down with cbet if called pre…?

Thoughts from all please….

I actually like my 3bet here b/c;

1 – This guy has opened with a min raise at least one time every orbit when he is in button c/o or hijack for the last 4 orbits and has not shown down any of these hands

2 – I have a tight image

3 – I want to change tact and start restealing to pick up chips

4 – BB villain is very tight and is most of the time folding

My full intention was to take this pot down preflop

My plan further to that was;

– fold to any 4bet

– if called by c/o villain i would c-bet almost any flop and react accordingly depending on what happened b/c i figure im ahead of his opening range and this would go along with my relatively tight image

I guess my only downfall was that i didnt actually have a plan post flop when BB villain calls

At the time i thought there may be a couple hands in his range im ahead of – 99/88/AQ/AJ

I bet a tad over 1/2 pot something like 1500-1600 and he jams it in

I folded pretty quickly knowing he doesnt have 99 or 88, frustrated that he picks up a hand at the right time!

In hindsight i guess a check-call-reevaluate turn wouldn't be bad at all (depending on his bet sizing) as there are a lot of potential scare cards for him as you stated les (heart/ace possibly K) that i could fire at and give up if played back at.

Guess i need to tank think it over much deeper next time..

you will appear to have a very narrow 3bet range

he can play perfectly against a narrow 3 bet range in pos

you've chosen the bottom of a very narrow 3 bet range to 3 bet

Your hand is often dominated when called

It very hard to get three streets of value with A10 oop

Tight villain had been min raising lots???

I like the 3 bet.  You'll get mowed over and be too predictable if you don't repop an aggro blind-stealer with less than premiums.  I would fire out about 1/2 pot bet on the flop (like you did), and wouldn't be surprised to get raised by the bb, in which case I would fold.  In my opinion, we just can't be sure that bb has us beat, and checking to him on the flop will leave us in no mans land, too vulnerable to bluffs imo.  It's just that check calling costs as much, with no benefit of information, and it hands control of the pot to your opponent in position.  If he flats my c-bet, I'll probably have to check fold the turn, which admittedly would be tough for me, and probably read dependent, if a brick came.