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June 11, 2012
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hello nation,
been a while posting a hand. here is one spot from last nights 8r on stars i think was rather interesting. spoiler: its a longer read 
sorry converter not working for some reason
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em – Friday, August 07, 02:52:29 ET 2015
Table 1287513346 4 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 35481 ) – VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 3.0, Hands: 99 10BB
Seat 2: Player2 ( 146958 ) – VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 1.5, Hands: 127 42BB
Seat 3: Player3 ( 97572 ) – VPIP: 23, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 1.0, Hands: 103 28BB
Seat 4: Player4 ( 118052 ) – VPIP: 19, PFR: 13, 3B: 8, AF: 2.5, Hands: 107 34BB
Seat 7: Hero ( 115285 ) – VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.4, Hands: 472749 33BB
Seat 8: Player8 ( 97630 ) – VPIP: 12, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 4.0, Hands: 74 28BB
Seat 9: Player9 ( 112097 ) – VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 8.0, Hands: 100 32BB
Player1 posts ante of [350].
Player2 posts ante of [350].
Player3 posts ante of [350].
Player4 posts ante of [350].
Hero posts ante of [350].
Player8 posts ante of [350].
Player9 posts ante of [350].
Player3 posts small blind [1750].
Player4 posts big blind [3500].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Js Td ]
Hero raises [7000]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 calls [7000]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2h, Kc, 7s ]
Hero bets [7999]
Player2 calls [7999]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
Hero checks
Player2 checks
** Dealing River ** [ 6h ]
Hero bets [15595]
Player2 raises [41772]
Hero ???
here infos to the hand:
Down to final 3 or 4 table. 7handed table no particular reads other than HEM stats. Hero has def an aggressive image.
At this stage I am trying to control the table and opening up my range until I get played back at.
Range looks like this roughly:
AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K6s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s,76s,65s,54s (526combos)
villain:
Villain has hero covered. Seems to be a low stakes reg based on sharkscope decently aggressive stats. A villain like him should play back at hero here a lot by 3betting, flatting a good playable range and floating a lot post flop.
I would range him the following. I think he might trap with AA,KK and AK 50% of the time and three bet these holdings the other 50%. JJ-QQ, AJs+ I assume villain would three bet here for value. With 99 I am not sure so I assign it 50%. I also assume that he is three betting a somewhat balanced range so I added SC at 50% to his 3betting range
His calling range
TT-22,KQo,ATs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,[50]AA-KK,AKo,AKs,98s,87s,76s,65s[/50] (152combos)
Flop: 2hKc7s
Hero
The flop hits heros range pretty good and connects reasonably well with villains range. I don’t think hero needs a c/r range on this board and can therefore bet his entire value range consisting of all the monsters and some strong made hands like KQ,KJ. Kx and mid pairs I would c/c here. As bluffs I am betting hands that can turn some equity such as QJ,JT – backdoor straight draws and backdoor flush draws.
One could calculate the bluff to value bet ratio but I go with a rule of thumb for every value bet I have around two bluffs in my range. Or I try it at least
Villain:
On this board I assume a competent villain is defending against Cbets with a big part of his range. I also don’t think there is much of a need for villain to raise on such a dry board. He should also be floating reasonably often here as he should expect hero to Cbet often on this board.
Plan for turn:
Hero:
With the actual holding I am barreling on a card that is giving me more equity but also favors my range. I would def fire on a A,9,8 and c/c on J,T and a Q. rest I am c/f.
Looking at my range I am c/c with almost my entire value range. He is not calling two barrels with a lot and I think he floats me often enough that c/c has more EV on the turn then value betting.
Turn: 2hKc7s 5d
Hero:
One of the cards that is not giving me more equity and is not really improving equity of my range much. Therefore I decide to give up and c/f
Villain:
In villains position I would def bet the strongest part of the range such as sets, overpair and TP as he should be perceived floating a lot and bluffing here. I would also assume that he bets most of his floats on the turn. Checking back most likely hands that are not afraid of any river. I think top sets and TPTK are good to check back here.
River: 2hKc7s 5d 6h
Hero:
Villain’s line to me looks very showdown value heavy with not betting the turn. As stated above I would assume he bets most of the time there when checked to him either for value or as a bluff. Further I think I can do bet-check-bet with a lot of my range on this board. I assume by betting I get him of some of his pairs.
To my surprise I am getting raised. His raising range in my eyes is slow played sets on the turn (KK) and 66 which got there and TPTK(AK) This is only 12 combos.
I think he calls with the rest of TP(18),88-TT(18).
If we are shoving for a bluff here we are risking 84k to win 95k thus have to succeed 46% of the time.
In other words we need to find about the same number of combos he can raise on the river as a bluff.
I think he could def do it with 2nd pair (6combos), maybe 88(6).
your two cents?
February 20, 2015
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(7-handed I would fold JTo UTG at a table with these stats.)
If he is competent, then you’re playing your hand face up once you check the turn. What would be in your check-raising range?
As far as the river goes, he might be turning his hand into a bluff, but JTo isn’t a bluff-catcher on this board. You’re getting 3.5-1 to call. But I don’t see him bluffing here. I’m guessing that he’s sizing you to shove on purpose. He raises to 42K and you have 85K behind? If he wanted you to fold, he would have shoved your river bet.
Looking at the hand again, I think a lot of river bluffs are from busted draws, but I don’t see any in his range. I see a lot of pocket pairs and Ax, which may have paired the kicker, but it doesn’t matter because you have jack high.
August 10, 2014
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joelshitshow said:
(7-handed I would fold JTo UTG at a table with these stats.)
If he is competent, then you're playing your hand face up once you check the turn. What would be in your check-raising range?
As far as the river goes, he might be turning his hand into a bluff, but JTo isn't a bluff-catcher on this board. You're getting 3.5-1 to call. But I don't see him bluffing here. I'm guessing that he's sizing you to shove on purpose. He raises to 42K and you have 85K behind? If he wanted you to fold, he would have shoved your river bet.
Looking at the hand again, I think a lot of river bluffs are from busted draws, but I don't see any in his range. I see a lot of pocket pairs and Ax, which may have paired the kicker, but it doesn't matter because you have jack high.
All this sounds good to me, and I second the folding JTo pre 
.
As Foucault says “are we telling a story that makes sense?”, and I don't think that is the case here.
June 11, 2012
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are you not bet-check-bet your value range there as initial raiser?
and yes i know that we are not telling much of a story but neither does he. is he really checking back 22, 77 on turn?
as stated as a cold caller i am always betting my value range on that turn after initial raiser checks as it looks so bluffy and like a float
to me his most likely value hands in this spot are slow played KK and 66 that got there on the river
August 10, 2014
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I'm not trying to be a jerk, but will play devils advocate by saying that if checking 22 and 77 on the turn incites villains to bluff shove rivers, then it sounds like a pretty good line to me!
And the turn is such a dry card that I think there may be a case for checking the top of his range.
Also, given stack sizes and the sizing of villains river raise, I think the chances of him folding are very low. It is a bit hard to tell with the HH, but he must be getting a pretty decent price on the river if you jam.
It is a low stakes rebuy too, and I think we're giving a random villain too much credit if we think he's capable of making a big fold here just because we're trying to rep a very small range. I wouldn't be surprised if people were calling down AK here. I could be very wrong, of course. But the whole line just seems fishy.
June 11, 2012
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well, i think yes it might be that we are overthinking vs villain here.
guess i was thinking in game jam might be good as i was watching DannyN13 video prior to the session where he ends up in a similar spot and talks about it.
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