August 8, 2012
2k runners, down to the last 100. Villain and I have a little history. One hand where I flatted his steal in the BB then check/raise bluffed the flop. He folded. Second hand I 3b him pre from OOP when he opened from CO and he jammed for about 35BB.
He is running 18/17 over 66 hands. His steal % is 60% (6/10). His fold to 3b is 50% (1/2) and his AF is 2.0. With an Ace blocker I felt that this 3b would get him to fold enough to make it profitable. It's costing me 14,695 into a pot of 13,500 so it only needs to work 52% of the time to be break even and I'm pretty sure this player is folding more than that given his steal %.
When we reach the flop I don't know whether to check flop or cbet. In hindsight I think I prefer a check to keep the pot small and if he checks back I can bet a lot of turns. As played I think I decided that if I bet the flop I have to bet scare card turns, which is what I did. On the river, should I go the whole way and rep AK by shoving? I only have about 50k left in my stack.
Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1500/t3000 Blinds + t375 – 8 players – View hand 2176875
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MP1: BB = 12.4, t37340
MP2: BB = 70.7, t212170
CO: BB = 47.0, t140899
BTN: BB = 19.1, t57157
Hero (SB): BB = 38.1, t114290
BB: BB = 15.7, t46978
UTG: BB = 20.0, t60137
UTG+1: BB = 26.2, t78508
Pre Flop: (t7500) Hero is SB with 5 A
4 folds, CO raises to t6000, 1 fold, Hero raises to t16195, 1 fold, CO calls t10195
Flop: (t38390) T 5 2 (2 players)
Hero bets t13820, CO calls t13820
Turn: (t66030) Q (2 players)
Hero bets t29015, CO calls t29015
River: (t124060) J (2 players)
Hero ???
March 8, 2013
Your 3bet preflop is only profitable based on the amount you are putting in preflop. If you put a bunch of chips into the pot on unfavorable boards, that whole 52% kind of goes out the window.
If you are going to cbet the flop out of position, it needs to be bigger than this. When you make is 30% of the pot, what is he folding in position? He's certainly no folding any two overs, any pair, any two hearts, or the ace of hearts. If you bet 20K on flop, you set up for a turn shove, which you can then decide to fire or not. As played, you have a really awkward stack on the turn, and have to either overshove or leave yourself too small of a stack. The line you take leaves you with an amount of chips on the river that's just not ever getting him to fold.
I don't really like check/calling the flop either. I feel like he can play perfectly against us too easily.
I know some people will disagree with this, but I think if you're confident that he's folding 55% of the time preflop, then you can afford to give up in spots like this. But when he flats preflop you are just in such an awkward spot out of position with a hand that is very difficult to play.
Overall, I like check/folding the flop best, followed by betting about 20K.
March 8, 2013
Re-examining, the assumptions, and I wonder, why are you so sure he is folding a lot preflop? Yeah, he is opening a lot, but you mention you have 3 bet him before in a similar situation, so he's probably not giving you a lot of credit. His steal percentage is 60%, but that's after ten possibilites, so who knows what he is actually doing.
You give him over 2.5 to 1 pre, and he is in position. Why is he not calling with 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o. That's over half of 60%, even assuming he actually opens 60% of hands here. I thnk folding pre is probably best.
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