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February 20, 2013
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$235 HR on a Merge weeknight. Villain is a good TAG. I have him running 16/13/4 for 600 hands, but his SB stats tell a more aggro story. His SB steal is 62% (8/13). A couple of orbits before he opened the SB small into me and I 3b him (with AQ) and he tank folded.
We are still far from the money, but with top 20% stacks when the following spot came up. I see four options that don't suck: flat, jam, r/c, and r/f. Which is best?
Merge - $0+$0|<> NL - Holdem - 9 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 LaKabii (BTN): 31.6 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 36) QuasiFiction0 (SB): 47.81 BB (VPIP: 16.23, PFR: 12.89, 3Bet Preflop: 4.37, Hands: 608) andinista420 (BB): 35.51 BB duckers (UTG): 30.8 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 10.91, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 56) Pachese007 (UTG+1): 16.35 BB (VPIP: 16.78, PFR: 8.96, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 144) stazz1 (MP): 20.31 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 11.32, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 54) jackattack69 (MP+1): 6.46 BB (VPIP: 18.32, PFR: 9.39, 3Bet Preflop: 7.00, Hands: 263) kmbond3 (MP+2): 8.26 BB (VPIP: 30.09, PFR: 15.76, 3Bet Preflop: 3.54, Hands: 577) fLiPorFLoP (CO): 13.08 BB (VPIP: 19.29, PFR: 14.94, 3Bet Preflop: 6.03, Hands: 1,710) 9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, QuasiFiction0 posts SB 0.5 BB, andinista420 posts BB 1 BB Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) andinista420 has 77
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, [color=red]QuasiFiction0 raises to 2 BB[/color], [color=red]andinista420....
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December 6, 2012
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The first thing I'd rule out is 3b/fold. You'd need a very specific read to justify that, and if he 4bets an appropriate % of his opening range you're going to end up making a bad fold. I also don't like 3b/call because his 4bet range is going to be full of hands that have near-50% equity against you, and you'd much rather play a pot in position against those hands than coin flip against them pre-flop.
I wouldn't be surprised if jamming were +EV – it's hard to be dealt a pocket pair, and only pocket pairs higher than yours can really hurt you – but that doesn't make it the best option. Calling is also going to be very profitable, and that's what I'd do. Yes, you'll lose the pot somewhat more often than if you jam, but you'll also lose your stack quite a bit less often. You have position, so no need to fear taking a flop!
May 20, 2013
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I think 3b/fold is out (and that is clearly described above).
I Dont like flat as your not deep enough to let go of the range advantage you have Blind vs. blind. Although I often will call in the BB here because of position, I just like my hand here too much to not take control of the hand.
I have recently been turned on to thinking (as Foucalt stated) to considering jamming here and that is well described also (and due to stack sizes would be better than 5bet-jam).
I would r/c here, expecting to have to make a big decision (at least in position) on the flop.
September 14, 2014
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jamming 35bb to win just over 4bb, not too sure about that imo.
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December 6, 2012
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:
jamming 35bb to win just over 4bb, not too sure about that imo.
Instead of guessing, why don't you try posting a calling range that would make this shove -EV if Villain is opening anywhere near 62% of hands pre-flop.
October 21, 2013
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Foucault said:
folding_aces_pre_yo said:
jamming 35bb to win just over 4bb, not too sure about that imo.
Instead of guessing, why don't you try posting a calling range that would make this shove -EV if Villain is opening anywhere near 62% of hands pre-flop.
That's a dose of tough love right there…ahaha boy i missed this forum, thankfully exams are over now…
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December 6, 2012
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Riar said:
Foucault said:
folding_aces_pre_yo said:
jamming 35bb to win just over 4bb, not too sure about that imo.
Instead of guessing, why don't you try posting a calling range that would make this shove -EV if Villain is opening anywhere near 62% of hands pre-flop.
That's a dose of tough love right there…ahaha boy i missed this forum, thankfully exams are over now…
Heh yeah perhaps that was a bit harsh. It just irks me when I and others put thought and effort into solving a situation, and then someone comes along and posts one sentence disagreeing without giving any reasons other than “seems dumb to me”. Most things that we now know to be correct parts of poker strategy would have violated conventional wisdom in the poker world a few years ago. For example, TJ Cloutier's book refers to QQ as a small pair and discourages people from three-betting it. Even longer ago, many players thought it was obvious that AK would be a favorite all in pre-flop against 22. Nobody gets better at poker by just repeating what they think is obvious and laughing at people who consider doing anything different (not that fapy was laughing at anyone per se, but his comment seemed a bit snarky). The more I think about this, the more I think shoving is definitely +EV and very well may be more so than calling.
September 14, 2014
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Foucault said:
folding_aces_pre_yo said:
jamming 35bb to win just over 4bb, not too sure about that imo.
Instead of guessing, why don't you try posting a calling range that would make this shove -EV if Villain is opening anywhere near 62% of hands pre-flop.
I'm not saying its not profitable to shove here, I just feel that there's other ways to play this hand as well, thats all. I agree i should back up my answers rather then just write one sentence.
I'll be honest , I personally like 3-bet call here, I mean why not? why not 3-bet/c? There's many reasons as to why we should 3-bet call and that would be profitable as well.
Ithink villian may shove light, given that we've 3-bet them once before, they may also call with a weaker range and we can play post against them IP, these are good things for hero. 7sdoes not play particularly well post though, however i think i'd prefer shoving with 22-55,since these hands are more hard to play when v calls our 3bet.
January 16, 2015
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On a game flow level, having recently 3-bet the villain’s small blind steal attempt makes me inclined to believe the villain will be opening up their 4-bet shoving range and while we’re probably ahead I doubt our equity against that range is going to be over 55%. I feel like 3-betting is going to put us in the uncomfortable position of having to flip for our tournament life a lot of the time.
The villain’s range should be stronger in any case since we’ve recently demonstrated a willingness to defend the big blind.
I have a difficult time seeing the villain opening 62% of his range here. Most people don’t want to open-raise&fold in close succession, especially against the same player. I would be inclined to think that the villain would often (usually?) be willing to play for stacks in this spot. At the very least I expect the villain to almost never fold here to a preflop 3-bet.
With little fold equity there’s little point to 3-betting here. Either shoving or flatting seem like better options.
Shoving is going to be profitable, I doubt the villain is ever going to call with worse than a top 10% hand, but it’s risky and not likely to be more than marginally profitable considering the small size of the initial pot.
I think I like flatting the best, it has the highest potential profit with the lowest intrinsic risk. Sure, it ain’t gonna be easy to play postflop, but with position we don’t necessarily need to improve to win the hand.
November 4, 2013
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I agree with just flatting here. As has been said, jamming isn't a horrible option, but do we really want to potentially get into a 36bb coin flip? That just makes absolutely zero sense to do, we are by no means short or in desperate need of a double. We are in really bad shape (42%) vs his 10% assumed calling range, although the range my calc built seemed a bit wide. It has KTs in there, and I disagree he's calling with that.
Building a better range, considering this is a BvB bloodbath, of 55+, ATs+, AJo+, KJo/KJs+ – we end up at 45%. This really looks more like his 4b shove range to me though, than what his calling range would be for our shove. I would expect his calling range for 36bb to be way tighter, which is likely to make shoving a profitable play, until he figures out we are shoving 77 here and adjusts.
All 3b's just put us in a rough spot post flop. If he flats, we are still playing 77's post flop and have bloated the pot. When he 4b shoves, we need to have a very solid view of his range, or we are likely to make a mistake. While our absolute hand can be tough to play post flop, our range isn't really that difficult to play. Our flatting range literally includes 85% of hands, and we have position.
Flat, flop A74, punish.
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December 6, 2012
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The problem with reasoning like “I don't want to flip for my stack so I better not shove” is that it ignores how infrequently this result it occurs. This is a huge shove, and if Villain is opening 62%, you probably won't be called much more than 10% of the time.
Sorry to keep sounding like a grumpy old man but this is why it's so important to actually do an EV calculation rather than just guess at this stuff. If Villain opens 62% and calls a shove with just 7% (all better pairs, AJo+, ATs+), Hero basically breaks even on fold equity alone (risking 34.5BB to win 3.9BB nearly 90% of the time), which means that any equity he has when called is icing on the cake.
In this case that's 38% equity in a 72BB pot about 10% of the time = 2.74BB profit from shoving.
If Hero calls, it will cost him 1BB to go to the flop in a 5BB pot. To do as well as shoving, then, he needs to claim 3.74BB or about 75% of the pot. His hot-and-cold equity vs 62% of hands is 60%, so he'll have to do quite a bit better than that as a result of the post-flop play.
Realizing 125% of your equity isn't so unrealistic when you have position, but 77 is not a hand that plays particularly well post-flop against a wide range. The weaker Villain is post-flop, the more I like calling.
If Villain calls the shove a bit more frequently, then Hero's equity when called goes up, so although it's not a wash, I don't think that quibbling with his calling range is going to make a big difference.
Against a substantially tighter opening range, calling will be a more appealing option. I don't think 62% is generally an unreasonable number, although this particular Villain's PFR is quite low overall. There are many players, though, who simply won't open fold their SB ever.
The problem with 3-bet-calling is that we don't actually want to induce a light shove from Villain. Most of those hands will be two overcards that we'd actually prefer him to fold. If he calls, he won't make many mistakes post-flop. Usually he'll either pair a card bigger than a 7 and continue correctly or whiff the flop and check-fold correctly.
September 14, 2014
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I dont know how to do the EV caculations , by shoving you showed that hero profits 2.74bb?
Also you said v will likely call our shove 10% of the time?
I don't think your acting like a grumpy old man , there's no reason to be sorry , you're just saying it how it is , which is good for us imo 🙂
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December 6, 2012
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:
I dont know how to do the EV caculations , by shoving you showed that hero profits 2.74bb?
Also you said v will likely call our shove 10% of the time?
Size of your stack when he folds * Frequency with which he folds + Equity When Called * Pot When Called * Frequency With Which He Calls – Size of Your Shove
This will tell you how much better or worse you do by shoving compared to folding.
Note that this assumes your opponent covers you. If your jam is not actually all in, then you have to account for that.
The calling range I gave him is 7% of hands, so a bit over 11% of a 62% opening range. The shove will go down in EV the more often he calls, but not as quickly as you might think, because your equity when called goes up.
September 14, 2014
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Thanks, will try do my best to learn this.
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December 6, 2012
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:
Thanks, will try do my best to learn this.
Please note I edited my post, I forgot you have to multiply the second term by the frequency with which you are called.
Basically what you are doing is saying “how much do I win from his folds” plus “how much do I lose from his calls” and then comparing that to what would happen if you fold.
March 14, 2015
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3b call seems kinda standard. Im fine getting in 35 bb's with 77 BvB. Flatting seems decent also, but were gonna do a lot of guessing postflop unless we flop a set.
January 16, 2015
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How does one weigh profitability versus risk?
The fact that the scenario described above by Foucault where shoving yeilds a profit of 2.74bbs still doesn't tell me whether or not it's a worthwhile risk.
I don't feel too bad about having a 35bb stack here, of course, the playability of my stack is starting to become limited, but it's still a healthy stack.
Having a 70bb stack on the other hand would really allow me to let slip the hogs of war…
I dunno. The best course of action just isn't evident to me. Gotta say though, the prospect of having a 70bb stack is not unappealing.
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December 6, 2012
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BionicApe said:
How does one weigh profitability versus risk?
The fact that the scenario described above by Foucault where shoving yeilds a profit of 2.74bbs still doesn't tell me whether or not it's a worthwhile risk.
I don't feel too bad about having a 35bb stack here, of course, the playability of my stack is starting to become limited, but it's still a healthy stack.
Having a 70bb stack on the other hand would really allow me to let slip the hogs of war…
I dunno. The best course of action just isn't evident to me. Gotta say though, the prospect of having a 70bb stack is not unappealing.
That's just not the right way to think about it. I've ranted about this elsewhere on the forums, but you really should be focused on making +EV plays rather than trying to achieve some specific stack size. Maintaining a “healthy stack”, building a “big stack”, making something happen, getting out of the “red zone”, 99% of the time I see people mention that stuff they'd be better off just trying to make the most +cEV decision. That's how you get more chips, and no matter how many you have, you should be trying to get more. There are a few exceptions to that, but the vast majority of your time should be spent accumulating and not fretting over what's going to happen if you lose the pot. From what I see on these forums, people get that ratio backwards, probably because it's a lot easier to say “I don't want to risk losing all my chips, I'll just wait for a better spot” than it is to actually quantify the value of the spot you're about to pass up.
So the answer is that although there are times when reducing risk is relevant, pretty much everyone worries way too much about it and would be better off just ignoring it entirely.
September 29, 2014
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I quickly think of it this way.. is this ok? I have a 90% chance of increasing my stack by 11% uncontested. And when I am called, I still have pretty decent equity against his calling range. Nice to go through the numbers (not my strong suit yet). 2.74BB = 8% increase in your stack. Thats big. You'd be hard pressed to find a better option in this situation I think? I'm guessing it's hard to win MTT's by passing up 8% accumulation spots..
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December 6, 2012
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Yep, that's pretty much how I do it too. My thought process is something like: “Very small number of hands dominate 77, and he's opening a lot of hands, so if I jam he's gonna fold really often and even when he doesn't I'll be in pretty good shape. Other option is 3-bet-calling, but I don't think I want the extra action that would get me because it will mostly be hands I'm flipping against and would prefer to fold.”
The only thing that's off is the 8% bit. It's not particularly important to quantify your edge as a function of your stack size, and I can only seeing it leading to risk aversion in a case where you decide “my stack is big enough, what's 3% more?” when 3% could in fact be quite substantial, if, say, you have a 100BB stack.
February 5, 2015
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Given how often he is opening, I like the shove here the best and like mentioned above is a nice increase to your stack without too much risk (given the fold equity + post flop chance against his range). I don't like seeing flops heads up with 77, BUT you do have position so it is likely that he check folds to you (unless he is check raising people a lot).
How does it change if you have 77 and you have 3-4 limpers in front of you (in the cut-off or button)? Would you guys still shove since there are so many more BBs in the pot at this point? or would you limp in and set mine (with the risk of being squeezed by the players) assuming there are big stacks limping?
September 29, 2014
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Foucault said:
Yep, that's pretty much how I do it too. My thought process is something like: “Very small number of hands dominate 77, and he's opening a lot of hands, so if I jam he's gonna fold really often and even when he doesn't I'll be in pretty good shape. Other option is 3-bet-calling, but I don't think I want the extra action that would get me because it will mostly be hands I'm flipping against and would prefer to fold.”
The only thing that's off is the 8% bit. It's not particularly important to quantify your edge as a function of your stack size, and I can only seeing it leading to risk aversion in a case where you decide “my stack is big enough, what's 3% more?” when 3% could in fact be quite substantial, if, say, you have a 100BB stack.
Point taken. I'll bet I'm making some mistakes there, cuz I find myself saying stuff like that. Prob why I end on FT's with a short stack usually (always?..) Chips are chips, gotta get 'em.
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