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35$ 25k Bad 2 barrel Bluff vs TAG with air?
pokkerheller
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April 8, 2016 - 7:45 pm
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Tag mediocre reg. I have a tight image. Thought i could get him to fold AK, AQ, 55-88. Fell like i rep 99, 66, Jx, flushes here but at the end of the day he gets too good of a price OTR although he only beats bluffs. Thoughts?

No Limit Hold’em Tournament T900/T1,800
Buy-in: $32 + $3 – Table #90 9 Max
888 Poker
8 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

Stacks:
UTG – UTG (T244,720)
UTG+1 – UTG+1 (
T62,917)
MP – MP (
T79,765)
MP2 – MP2 (
T84,304)
CO – CO (
T41,690)
BTN – Hero (
T55,229)
SB – SB (
T27,746)
BB – BB (
T26,097)

Preflop: (T4,500, 8 players) Hero is BTN with Q♣ A♠
2 folds, MP raises to T5,113, 2 folds, Hero calls T4,888, 2 folds, Uncalled bet of T225 returned to MP

Flop: 4♠ 4♣ 9♦ (T14,276, 2 players – MP: T74,652, Hero: T50,116)
MP bets T8,990, Hero calls T8,990

Turn: 6♦ (T32,256, 2 players – MP: T65,662, Hero: T41,126)
MP checks,
Hero bets T14,328, MP calls T14,328

River: J♦ (T60,912, 2 players – MP: T51,334, Hero: T26,798)
MP checks,
Hero bets T26,798 (all-in), MP calls T26,798

Total Pot: T114,508
MP shows
8♥ 8♦
Hero shows
Q♣ A♠

MP wins T114,508

MovieFX
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Balla
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April 8, 2016 - 9:46 pm
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After thinking about this I kind of think this guy made a brilliant call… What hands do you have on each street here that make sense with the previous action?

On the flop: If we have 9x or TT you wouldn’t we be re-raising (if we do have a 9 the kicker is probably at least an 8, but I suppose 89 could check behind)? JJ+ probably 3-bet from the button PF? 22-77 all seem reasonable to just call?

On the turn: Unless we decided to just call with a 9 or TT, had 66, or picked up a draw, the turn is a blank. I think the most likely hand to bet here when checked to is a hand like 55, 77, a floated A or a flush draw. However, what suited hands float a flop bet here? AK probably doesn’t flat on the button very often PF…maybe AQs too, so if we remove those than I guess suited cards that connect with the 9 might (backdoor straight and lush draws on the flop)? TdiamondJdiamond, JdiamondQdiamond, KdiamondQdiamond, TdiamondQdiamond, KdiamondTdiamond? V is blocking the 7diamond8diamond combo draw, which probably doesn’t float the flop much anyway).

On the river: What hands in your range make it to the river and also make sense to shove with? At this point any 9, 6 or J have showdown value that is too thin to bet right? Perhaps a boat would just shove with the SPR so low. …V could have decided, “if he floated air and caught a back-door miracle, gg… boats are hard to make… call”.

 

I kind of wish you didn’t post the results because that might have forced my mind down this thought process. 

pokkerheller
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April 8, 2016 - 10:46 pm
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Because he checked turn I mostly put him on hands like 55,77,88 and KQ,KJ,AK,AQ,AJ,AT,QJ. So I will often try to take down the pot OTT or 2 barrel bluff on good rivers to make him fold that range. Basically i can have a decent amount of Jx, 99, 66, and flush combos like KT,KQ, AT and sometimes AA,KK with 2 shorties in the blinds. Definitely jamming all those and i certainly jam most Jx OTR for value. It is a flop he is gonna cbet prob 100% so he still has a some mid pair and a ton combos of 2 overcards OTT when he checks IMO. OTR I think he often has 77-88 so trying to fold those out. But yeah he is getting a good price and i probably have enough bluff combos to make it a good call even though i have a tight image i dunno.cool

Foucault

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April 9, 2016 - 3:18 am
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You are WAY ahead of most of those hands you’re talking about trying to make him fold…

almofadinhas
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April 9, 2016 - 9:39 am
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Would you bet OTT if you really have 66 or 99? what about 44?

What hands you float flop to hit a J?

pokkerheller
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April 9, 2016 - 1:12 pm
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Foucault said
You are WAY ahead of most of those hands you’re talking about trying to make him fold…

good point lol. But is there not an argument for making him fold out all those overcard combos to steal the pot OTT rather than letting him see a free river that could give him the lead?

Foucault

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April 9, 2016 - 1:36 pm
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When you bet and he folds KQ, how much do you win?

When you bet and he calls with 88, how much do you lose?

pokkerheller
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April 10, 2016 - 8:10 pm
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Foucault said
When you bet and he folds KQ, how much do you win?

When you bet and he calls with 88, how much do you lose?

when i bet and he folds ak,aq,kq how much do i win? Also when i he folds 88-77 i win a a lot. A big question is how often is he gonna fold with 77-88 here IMO. the hands i beat he folds for sure plus ak,aq. I am prob wrong as always though 😛

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