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December 30, 2015
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Middle stages of a 10min/level 8-handed MTT.
What action do you take here?
June 28, 2018
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Without any reads on HJ I let this go. His sizing seems very value-y to me since it is very likely that raise is going to be called in at least 2 spots.
If HJ is one of those people that doesn’t adjust his raise size for the number of people in the pot then a shove becomes more viable. If hero had 25BB I would also like shoving a bit more but with a lot of players still having pretty tight 3-betting ranges I don’t see ripping 33BB in w/ KQ ending well for us.
December 30, 2015
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I won’t give my opinion or results yet, but I did want to chime in and say I wouldn’t read anything in to the bet sizing here. This is all pretty consistent with the field’s expectations. Going over 3x in position may be adding 0.5x because of the extra person for example. Or they could just not be adjusting. Either way the sizing should be effective if their main goal is to isolate. I also have no reads so I have no idea if this is stronger due to the EP open (which isn’t as EP as it looks since this is 8-handed = UTG+3 if 9-handed). I also don’t know if the original open is a good position-aware player or someone opening too much.
I ordered PioSolverFree to see if I could try this as a way to start getting in to it, but it looks like I have to wait for the download link to be sent out manually.
July 24, 2018
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I don’t think PIO free is going to help you here.
This looks like quite a poor spot to jam. Yes, you are suited. You have a hand with decent value. But you are so often in such poor shape that you need to get this through a lot.
You have to put in 32.8 in order to win 13. You will probably be 30% to win the pot when called. You probably need to get it through about 70% of the time. (The math is more complicated than that, since you may get called in multiple spots) The problem is, you have a lot of players to get through:
BB. Sure, he has 2 random cards, but some of the time he will wake up with a monster.
UTG1 He did open raise, he will likely fold to this strong action, but all of the hands that you are worried about are in his range.
UTG2. He only flatted, so somewhat unlikely to be a caller. Still, a lot of players are calling with some very strong hands in this spot, hoping for a squeeze.
Squeezer. If all of that goes through, you will be up against a strong range that will only need about 37% to call. Unless he is squeezing some low frequency suited connector, or maybe something like AJo, the money is going in.
Even with 10 minute levels, you have a very playable stack, and will for a while.
December 30, 2015
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Another line: Would you ever flat here? Call-fold to a 4-bet. It is a big % to call. Upside is low SPR (<1?) on the flop, so going with a good flop is fine.
Results: I folded and so did everyone else. It felt like the right action. I didn’t honestly consider calling either, but thought I’d pose the question. I did consider shoving because…
- The 3bet could have been an attempt to isolate rather than pure value
- KQ has good blocker value and suited helps when called
- There is enough in the pot to give good odds against a lot of hands.
- I think there is fold equity here. A shove looks so strong, even to someone who might not be paying attention to that sort of thing normally and I have enough to completely cripple anyone who calls and loses.
The counter that got me to fold was essentially the points you guys made…
- Ranges could be very strong including hands that dominate.
- The structure on this isn’t just 10min blinds but also deep stacked. Average stack was 40-60BB a lot. There is a lot of playability here and my stack is plenty healthy.
The good news is I actually survived short for a long time, then ran it up at the bubble to 1st in chips from about 16th to 8th (final table) but ended up busting 6th due to back to back coolers. Interesting swings in this one, but a nice structure is my point.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Easy fold IMO. In your analysis you’re focusing a lot on your hand and very little on opponents’ ranges. Running your equity vs the 3etting range and then discounting for the risk of other players waking up with hands should convince you of this.
March 31, 2019
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Well how do you feel your edge is against the field? If you think your edge is significant then it’s a clear fold at this stage of the tournament. Just too much risk when there should be plenty of bad players left that will still give it away to you.
Your hand is almost always no good here but if you think you are outmatched you could do worse than 4 bet jamming a hand like KQs that plays pretty well. You’re repping a ton of strength and You are blocking AK and AQ so it’s gonna get through sometimes. Sometimes you get called off with JJ or smaller pairs and you’re not in awful shape against those.
I still like the fold because it’s like let there will be better spots and your stack is fine still. But always good to consider the competition you’re up against.
December 30, 2015
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It’s funny. I folded in game. Talking through it here it seems a very clear fold. However, I posted this because, in game, for whatever reason, I had to think about it. I feel like these moments are important to explore because it could mean I call here on some other night where I am tired or multi-tabling and it would be a pretty big mistake to do so. Worse, on that other hypothetical night, I might just caulk it up to being unlucky and totally miss the fact that I took an action I wouldn’t take if I really thought about it. Or, maybe I just always fold and this was that night I was tired so I had to think about it…. introspection is hard.
December 30, 2015
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I believe I am also coming to the realization that my biggest mistakes happen in the ~26-36BB zone. I am comfortable shorter or deeper but when it is right in the crossover point between the two, I feel awkward at times. Playing live cash I never play that stack since I would just top-up. Playing shorter happens so often I get the practice. I’ll be keeping an eye on this. Would make a good series
February 5, 2015
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The 3bettor is already giving the others too good a price to stay in. If you overcall you only make it more likely they will call enough of the time to make your hand super juicy vs 2 or 3 villains.
I am simply incapable of folding this here. RICEsolver has this as a call 100% of the time, although admittedly it is one of the cheaper solvers on the market.
February 5, 2015
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btw RICEsolver is my brain. There is no sub. It works extremely simply, I like to think it is perhaps the most efficient solver out there in terms of time and computational energy used. In fact, the electricity used in determining the solution is derived from 100% natural, biodegradable sources, such as broccoli and cucumber. It doesn’t even require an electric plug, making RICEsolver also the most environmentally friendly solver on the market!
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