No reads on villain thoughts on all streets and villains range?
Poker Stars $30+$3 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t15/t30 Blinds – 6 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
stormin xx (BTN): t2511 83.70 BBs
AlexGelinski (SB): t2960 98.67 BBs
spliffudo (BB): t2940 98 BBs
AmsterdamV88 (UTG): t2909 96.97 BBs
šefas01 (MP): t2903 96.77 BBs
Hero (CO): t3897 129.90 BBs
Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is CO with A J
2 folds, Hero raises to t90, 2 folds, spliffudo calls t60
Flop: (t195) 9 J 2 (2 players)
spliffudo checks, Hero bets t95, spliffudo calls t95
Turn: (t385) 6 (2 players)
spliffudo checks, Hero bets t225, spliffudo raises to t772, Hero calls t547
River: (t1929) 9 (2 players)
spliffudo bets t1983 all in, Hero folds
Interesting hand. 22 and 99 are in most players calling range, although a lot of people would raise with 9s. It looks like a set of 2s on the flop which he raised to protect when the flush card hit on the turn. The river shove is one of those spots where he's either got the nuts or air. Readless, I Don't think there's any way I could find a call here though. Very interested in other opinions.
This is a really tough one to analyze with no reads. It's an extremely villain dependent spot.
Did he pick up spades on the turn and decide to bluff shove the river? Is he capable of check/raising the turn with a draw? Or does he have a full house? It's impossible to answer those questions without history.
Readless I think I bet/fold the turn. Seems nitty, but it's early and you don't have a lot of chips invested.
The only draw that missed is QT.
Would he really shove here with boat? Sure players are doing more of that now, but wouldn't the best line be to bet 3/4 to half pot to get a call or induce a shove?
General rule you shouldn't call off your stack with just top pair so early and deep, so I suppose you have to fold, but being the fish that I am, I just don't believe him. Maybe his got a 9 but again, would he shove and scare away worse?
He could have QJ, J10 and thinks his good. Possibly squatted AA, KK Arrgg!!!! I call like the donkey I am.
Pretty easy fold unless we have a very strong idea about villains previous play that would make us think he's bluff shoving
I think his range could include 22, 66 if he's capable of floating OOP with that hand, and missed draws or combo draws like QsTs..
Dont like calling off so many chips with one pair though.
Thanks for the replies guys.
Yeah i don't think its ever a worse jack and its never a naked 9, as stated it's prob 22 or 66 its rarely air from a random, any merit in maybe checking back the turn? Or should we just be trying to get value and build a pot in case we hit our flush and/or have the best hand already?
Great hand! Two things make me think V could be on a missed draw: 1. The sizing for the turn check raise seems very large – would he really be betting this big with a set or J9 and risk folding out your top pair hands? and 2. Shoving the river doesnt seem the best way of getting value if he did have a monster, given your likely range of Jx and overpairs, which would probably call a half pot bet but fold to the shove.
I agree V almost never has a bare 9 here – what 9s would he c/raise turn with except J9 and 99?
Therefore, I would put V on 22, J9 or just maybe 66 or 99 – or else missed flush draws like QsTs or Ts8s.
It may be bad but I think I'm with my fellow Tasmanian, Donskey, here and am leaning towards a call.
B
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