May 6, 2013
Villain is 29/14 over a small sample, I have been really nitty(16/13) showing down hands. When he calls me pre, his range is kind of capped, because he already 3 bet me once and I folded, so we have some history. Im thinking small pairs, weaker aces, suited connectors. Once I bet such a somewhat wet flop, I would think he is raising sets here vs my utg open, because my range is quite strong and the hands that are not he won´t be getting any more value anyway. Now when the turn hits, his range could be mid pairs, some slowplayed sets(99 and 55), some lower flushes(that he hit with his sc) and some ax(some with spades, but more combos without spades). When I bet the turn, I would expect most of his small flushes to raise me now, he might or might not raise with sets, because my range easily has flushes as well. When he now flats again, I would put him on maybe sets, medium pairs with a spade, ax with a spade/without a spade and maybe some goofy hand that he is planning to float twice. On the river when the 4th spade hit and I jam, I would expect him to fold sets,mid pairs with a spade(wouldn´t expect a call most of the time) ax- without a j+(spade) and all of his random floats. Now to the question, would this line be +ev.
Poker Stars $30+$3 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t40/t80 Blinds – 9 players – View hand 2350704
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
SB: t1770 22.12 BBs
BB: t3240 40.50 BBs
Hero (UTG): t2970 37.12 BBs
UTG+1: t5148 64.35 BBs
UTG+2: t3385 42.31 BBs
MP1: t3615 45.19 BBs
MP2: t5409 67.61 BBs
CO: t3137 39.21 BBs
BTN: t6185 77.31 BBs
Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is UTG with Q K
Hero raises to t240, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls t240, 6 folds
Flop: (t600) A 9 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t336, UTG+2 calls t336
Turn: (t1272) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t720, UTG+2 calls t720
River: (t2712) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t1674 all in
Fire away, typed in a hurry, so if something is unclear, just ask,
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
I think the mistake you're making here is disconnecting both players' preflop ranges from their postflop ranges. I don't think it's necessarily a bad 3-barrel, but that doesn't mean there are no flaws in your logic.
Firstly, when you open UTG pre-ante you have way fewer ace of spades or king of spades combos in your range than in later position – you basically can only have AJo+, AJs+ KQs and maybe KQo. So, right off the bat this is going to be a more difficult bluff to make in this spot than it would be if you were in the cutoff and villain were on the button.
Secondly, a lot of the things you're attributing to villain postflop – “some goofy hand that he's planning to float twice”, for example – are just not realistic. You need to think about why he might float twice with a goofy hand here – there's just no reason for it. Unless he's an absolutely crazy player, there's not really any line of logic you could follow that would lead him to have, say, T7hh here.
So, this leads me to analyse the ranges villain might call at each point in the hand. Preflop, with him being a 'weak reg' UTG+2 facing a UTG raise, his range is going to be very tight. He might even fold hands like AJo, KQo or 22-55 with so many players left to act and only 40bb effective. This means that when he calls this flop, he's mostly going to have strong-ish Ax hands, plus the occasional set that he didn't decide to raise, and some spade combos with maybe a very small number of floats with other middling pairs or, say, a suited broadway hearts combo with some backdoors.
I'm kind of on the fence about the turn, to be honest. On the one hand, I don't expect him to fold many Ax hands to a second barrel. On the other hand, I don't see him calling 3 barrels here with AJ or maybe AQ, since our range looks really strong when we 3barrel from UTG, so it might be a case of 2-barrelling and giving up being really unprofitable, but 3-barrelling being actually quite profitable. I think he's going to have the ace of spades a decent amount once we get to the river, but he's also going to have the jack or queen sometimes, and a set very occasionally, so its probably pretty close.
I think the 3-barrel is possibly profitable in pure terms, but the main message of this post is to point out the inconsistencies above, and also mention that I think 3-barrelling people for your whole stack at 40/80 is almost never necessary. I'd probably just c/f turn and move on.
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